Japan doesn't matter. Especially for TV devices.

It'll sell better throughout the west.

I'll put my coin in the Vita hat, based on the PS4 factor

A. I was breaking my analysis down into the three regions...when talking about BF, I was obviously only talking about US sales and my final conclusion was a summation of my three points. Now, the fact that the holidays favor Nintendo/Xbox over playstation is a good point and we will see how this plays out in the long run. If the Vita was selling well all year and then only got beat in the holidays, I may say you are right but the Wii U has outsold the Vita every month this year and I don't see any sign of that changing (unless Vita TV or Vita as a PS4 accessory catches on like crazy) and the holidays are just icing on the cake. It seems like you also admit that the Wii U will outsell Vita in NA so no sense in arguing this.

B. This one is less arguably and you very well may be right. BUT I feel like Sony has been doing a fair bit to keep Vita afloat in Japan (from the price cut to some games and Vita TV) and each time it seems to come back down and stabilize right around where the Wii u is and with the Wii U getting little help from nintendo. I essentially see the situation being reversed next year, with the Vita more or less sitting and waiting while the Wii U gets the more frequent boosts (and a bigger holiday boost). Also, I would like to repeat the fact that 3D Mario has never been a major system seller in Japan...look at the Mario Galaxy games if you want proof. Mario Kart and Smash Bros will have a much larger effect.

nah.  If the Vita was considered "luxury/niche" by itself, that applies even more if tacked on to PS4, shooting its price over $500.

Vita is crawling and U's limping right now, but U will start building momentum from holiday/DK/MK then Smash.

A: I've already said the Vita is a lost cause in NA, I'm not arguing that things will change there, so I agree.

B: Vita might have recieved a lot of boosts from games, price cuts and a remodel, but it still clearly has more momentum and has doubled the Wii U's sales all year, a huge disparity in sales that Mario Kart alone will not change. I can see where you're coming from, but it just seems like wishful thinking to me. 3D Mario might not be much of a system seller, but 2D Mario is THE biggest system seller and has already released on the WiiU. Bear in mind that the WiiU's competition is about to launch in February as well, while the Vita's competition has been dominating for years.

Well the Vita is dead, sooo.... I'd go with the one foot in the grave Wii U.

I'm saying Vita.
Especially if vita TV gets released in time in the west

Wii U.

Hard to tell... Wii U's probably about 2 million behind Vita right now, which puts Wii U in the high 4 millions, and Vita in the high 6 millions. Vita would have to sell a little higher than 3 million to reach 10 million, and Wii U would have to sell a little over 5 million.

After thinking a little, I'll go with Wii U. It's selling better than Vita right now, and it has a good line-up next year. Either way, It'll be pretty close.

We'll see but PS4 and Vita seems to complement each other well and so far Sony looks like it's trying to get that message across. And you are crazy to think the two wouldn't sell decently together at that kind of price. Thats still cheaper then what PS3 was for 2 formats. 

Yeah, Wii U has those huge Nintendo franchises coming but it has over 2 million than Vita to get to 10 million. I expect it to be close but obviously Wii U doesn't have the appeal the Wii had.