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Forums - Nintendo - 130 million 3DS + 30 million Wii U = 8th Gen Nintendomination!

POE said:
Soundwave said:
POE said:
Soundwave said:
POE said:
Soundwave said:
POE said:
Soundwave said:
Slarvax said:

I think Wii U could do 60 million at best, but no less than 30 million. The thing is, I don't understand the reason Wii U isn''t selling. Free online, quality titles, actual innovation, backwards compatible, and nothing behind a paywall! Yes, there's not good third party support, but what happened to the +30 million people who bought MarioKart Wii, or +10 million people who bought SSBB/ SMG?


Well saying you don't understand why the system isn't selling probably makes your estimates fairly off base. 

The system is trending considerably below the GameCube right now which fizzled at around 22 million. 

It NEEDS Mario + Mario Kart just to sell at GameCube levels I think. Right now it's way below -- case in point, October 2013 NPD for Wii U is 50k-60k (lets be nice and say it was on the highest end, so 59k). The GameCube sold 168k it's second October by comparision, that's more than double.  

Yes, but by that date, the Gamecube already had a Super Smash Bros (released at launch) and a 3D Mario (Mario Sunshine, July of 2002).  So that comparisson is bullshit.

Yet NSMB Wii outsold Melee + Sunshine by several times over. 2D Mario is a bigger franchise. 

But yeah OK, lets keep pushing the "all it needs is EVEN MORE Mario", thing, lol. Don't get me wrong I think Mario 3D World will help (it can't make things worse), but I get the feeling its going to be a bit of a wake up call for some when it doesn't "save" the system. 


Thank god you said that. Now when the turn around happens it will be very pleasant to talk to you.

When you say "turn around" what exactly do you mean? That it will start selling higher than the GameCube? When exactly? This month? 

Keeping these things vague allows for the arbitrary and constant moving of goal posts that's already been happening all year. 

3D World is a great game, but it's not like NSMBU was a dog turd either. It was a high quality game (probably the best 2D Mario since Super Mario World), so was Nintendo Land for that matter (far deeper and more polished than Wii Sports). 

This is what im saying:

Wii U: 7/7.5 million consoles sold by the end of the year. This starts with Mario
Wii U: Winner of the generation sales wise


I think you're letting your personal fanboy-ism blind yourself with that second prediction there. Not in a million years is that happening. If Mario 3D World can boost Wii U sales to GameCube levels, that will be a minor miracle looking at their NPD sales for October. 

Just you wait.

This just seems to be based on blind hope rather than anything tangiable. 

Lets be optimistic and look at the Wii U's October NPD ... and say its 59k (the range was 50k to under 60k, so we'll give the Wii U the benefit of the doubt and give it the higher end 59k). 

October was the first full month of the $50 price reduction, had the Zelda bundle, the release of Wind Waker HD, Sonic Lost World, Batman: Arkham Origins, Wii Party U, and Just Dance 2014 ... so it's not like it was an entirely barren month. I believe actually the NPD tracking period for October even covered the first couple of days of the NSMBU bundle too. 

Now usually a platform increases in October to November NPD sales by a factor of 2x-4x. Lets be extra generous with the Wii U here and say that it gets an increase of 5x. Hell, lets go even higher and say 6x (virtually unheard of, but ok) ... that would be (59kx6) 354k sold for November.

This is still well below what the GameCube sold its second November (468k) and right around Dreamcast levels of sales. 

Maybe they can pull off a miracle here, but the data I'm looking at just doesn't support it. To get to the sales you are talking about, they need Wii Fit U to turn back the clock and sell systems like its 2008 again, Mario alone doesn't get this job done. 



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Soundwave said:
POE said:
Soundwave said:
POE said:
Soundwave said:
POE said:
Soundwave said:
POE said:
Soundwave said:
Slarvax said:

I think Wii U could do 60 million at best, but no less than 30 million. The thing is, I don't understand the reason Wii U isn''t selling. Free online, quality titles, actual innovation, backwards compatible, and nothing behind a paywall! Yes, there's not good third party support, but what happened to the +30 million people who bought MarioKart Wii, or +10 million people who bought SSBB/ SMG?


Well saying you don't understand why the system isn't selling probably makes your estimates fairly off base. 

The system is trending considerably below the GameCube right now which fizzled at around 22 million. 

It NEEDS Mario + Mario Kart just to sell at GameCube levels I think. Right now it's way below -- case in point, October 2013 NPD for Wii U is 50k-60k (lets be nice and say it was on the highest end, so 59k). The GameCube sold 168k it's second October by comparision, that's more than double.  

Yes, but by that date, the Gamecube already had a Super Smash Bros (released at launch) and a 3D Mario (Mario Sunshine, July of 2002).  So that comparisson is bullshit.

Yet NSMB Wii outsold Melee + Sunshine by several times over. 2D Mario is a bigger franchise. 

But yeah OK, lets keep pushing the "all it needs is EVEN MORE Mario", thing, lol. Don't get me wrong I think Mario 3D World will help (it can't make things worse), but I get the feeling its going to be a bit of a wake up call for some when it doesn't "save" the system. 


Thank god you said that. Now when the turn around happens it will be very pleasant to talk to you.

When you say "turn around" what exactly do you mean? That it will start selling higher than the GameCube? When exactly? This month? 

Keeping these things vague allows for the arbitrary and constant moving of goal posts that's already been happening all year. 

3D World is a great game, but it's not like NSMBU was a dog turd either. It was a high quality game (probably the best 2D Mario since Super Mario World), so was Nintendo Land for that matter (far deeper and more polished than Wii Sports). 

This is what im saying:

Wii U: 7/7.5 million consoles sold by the end of the year. This starts with Mario
Wii U: Winner of the generation sales wise


I think you're letting your personal fanboy-ism blind yourself with that second prediction there. Not in a million years is that happening. If Mario 3D World can boost Wii U sales to GameCube levels, that will be a minor miracle looking at their NPD sales for October. 

Just you wait.

This just seems to be based on blind hope rather than anything tangiable. 

Lets be optimistic and look at the Wii U's October NPD ... and say its 59k (the range was 50k to under 60k, so we'll give the Wii U the benefit of the doubt and give it the higher end 59k). 

October was the first full month of the $50 price reduction, had the Zelda bundle, the release of Wind Waker HD, Sonic Lost World, Batman: Arkham Origins, Wii Party U, and Just Dance 2014 ... so it's not like it was an entirely barren month. I believe actually the NPD tracking period for October even covered the first couple of days of the NSMBU bundle too. 

Now usually a platform increases in October to November NPD sales by a factor of 2x-4x. Lets be extra generous with the Wii U here and say that it gets an increase of 5x. Hell, lets go even higher and say 6x (virtually unheard of, but ok) ... that would be (59kx6) 354k sold for November.

This is still well below what the GameCube sold its second November (468k) and right around Dreamcast levels of sales. 

Maybe they can pull off a miracle here, but the data I'm looking at just doesn't support it. To get to the sales you are talking about, they need Wii Fit U to turn back the clock and sell systems like its 2008 again, Mario alone doesn't get this job done. 

 

 

By now aprox 4 million Wii U´s has been sold. This makes only 3 million needed to reach the 7/7.5 million that i expect by the end of the year. Between Europe, USA and Japan i think that´s possible; in fact, giving that Mario is coming alongside with Wii Fit U i think that is VERY possible.. 
Next year with Mario Kart, Smash, and a revived Wii U, things will change drastically.

Im willing to bet with you about this subject if you want; about the 7/7.5 million sold by the end of the year{



Slarvax said:

I think Wii U could do 60 million at best, but no less than 30 million. The thing is, I don't understand the reason Wii U isn''t selling. Free online, quality titles, actual innovation, backwards compatible, and nothing behind a paywall! Yes, there's not good third party support, but what happened to the +30 million people who bought MarioKart Wii, or +10 million people who bought SSBB/ SMG?


Those people were aquired over the span of 7 years roughly. You can't compare the lifetime sales of games that launched early in Wii life to games that haven't been out even a year. Not to mention Mariokart, SSBU, and Super Mario 3d world haven't even launched yet so I don't even know why you would make that comparison, unless you think the Wii U will sell a ton BEFORE those games come out? When those games launch, it will be a WHOLE new ballgame. 



Lol to all these people who actually think that the 3DS will struggle to reach 80M. It is tracking wayy above the PSP and is merely 11M behind the DS. It will most likely end up in the 105-115m ballpark when everything is said and done. But 80M is laughable.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

JoeTheBro said:
Well Wii plus DS was 250 million, so 130 million is horrible numbers relatively.


this is wat i mean, why compare the best to everythng? both those were monsters in sales, 3DS selling 80-120mil is good,last time i checkec its better than vita's 7mil.

 

Just saying



Around the Network
POE said:
Soundwave said:
POE said:
Soundwave said:
POE said:
Soundwave said:
POE said:
Soundwave said:
POE said:
Soundwave said:
Slarvax said:

I think Wii U could do 60 million at best, but no less than 30 million. The thing is, I don't understand the reason Wii U isn''t selling. Free online, quality titles, actual innovation, backwards compatible, and nothing behind a paywall! Yes, there's not good third party support, but what happened to the +30 million people who bought MarioKart Wii, or +10 million people who bought SSBB/ SMG?


Well saying you don't understand why the system isn't selling probably makes your estimates fairly off base. 

The system is trending considerably below the GameCube right now which fizzled at around 22 million. 

It NEEDS Mario + Mario Kart just to sell at GameCube levels I think. Right now it's way below -- case in point, October 2013 NPD for Wii U is 50k-60k (lets be nice and say it was on the highest end, so 59k). The GameCube sold 168k it's second October by comparision, that's more than double.  

Yes, but by that date, the Gamecube already had a Super Smash Bros (released at launch) and a 3D Mario (Mario Sunshine, July of 2002).  So that comparisson is bullshit.

Yet NSMB Wii outsold Melee + Sunshine by several times over. 2D Mario is a bigger franchise. 

But yeah OK, lets keep pushing the "all it needs is EVEN MORE Mario", thing, lol. Don't get me wrong I think Mario 3D World will help (it can't make things worse), but I get the feeling its going to be a bit of a wake up call for some when it doesn't "save" the system. 


Thank god you said that. Now when the turn around happens it will be very pleasant to talk to you.

When you say "turn around" what exactly do you mean? That it will start selling higher than the GameCube? When exactly? This month? 

Keeping these things vague allows for the arbitrary and constant moving of goal posts that's already been happening all year. 

3D World is a great game, but it's not like NSMBU was a dog turd either. It was a high quality game (probably the best 2D Mario since Super Mario World), so was Nintendo Land for that matter (far deeper and more polished than Wii Sports). 

This is what im saying:

Wii U: 7/7.5 million consoles sold by the end of the year. This starts with Mario
Wii U: Winner of the generation sales wise


I think you're letting your personal fanboy-ism blind yourself with that second prediction there. Not in a million years is that happening. If Mario 3D World can boost Wii U sales to GameCube levels, that will be a minor miracle looking at their NPD sales for October. 

Just you wait.

This just seems to be based on blind hope rather than anything tangiable. 

Lets be optimistic and look at the Wii U's October NPD ... and say its 59k (the range was 50k to under 60k, so we'll give the Wii U the benefit of the doubt and give it the higher end 59k). 

October was the first full month of the $50 price reduction, had the Zelda bundle, the release of Wind Waker HD, Sonic Lost World, Batman: Arkham Origins, Wii Party U, and Just Dance 2014 ... so it's not like it was an entirely barren month. I believe actually the NPD tracking period for October even covered the first couple of days of the NSMBU bundle too. 

Now usually a platform increases in October to November NPD sales by a factor of 2x-4x. Lets be extra generous with the Wii U here and say that it gets an increase of 5x. Hell, lets go even higher and say 6x (virtually unheard of, but ok) ... that would be (59kx6) 354k sold for November.

This is still well below what the GameCube sold its second November (468k) and right around Dreamcast levels of sales. 

Maybe they can pull off a miracle here, but the data I'm looking at just doesn't support it. To get to the sales you are talking about, they need Wii Fit U to turn back the clock and sell systems like its 2008 again, Mario alone doesn't get this job done. 

 

 

By now aprox 4 million Wii U´s has been sold. This makes only 3 million needed to reach the 7/7.5 million that i expect by the end of the year. Between Europe, USA and Japan i think that´s possible; in fact, giving that Mario is coming alongside with Wii Fit U i think that is VERY possible.. 
Next year with Mario Kart, Smash, and a revived Wii U, things will change drastically.

Im willing to bet with you about this subject if you want; about the 7/7.5 million sold by the end of the year{


I think 7 million could be obtainable. 

I'll give the Wii U a huge benefit of the doubt and say it hits 350k for November (which is an extremely high 6x increase from October).

Then looking at historic November to December bumps, lets double that 350k to 700k for December, which is in line with many Nov-Dec holiday bumps (I think Nintendo would be quite pleased with that). 

That's a little more than 1 million sell through for the US market. The Euro/Japan markets tend to be smaller for Nintendo than the NA one, but lets assume Japan and Europe both sell 80% of US (again this may be generous, specifically for Japan), so that's 2.73 million systems sold in the big three markets for November + December. 

Assuming they are at 4 million sell through by the end of October (they probably weren't, but lets again give them the benefit of the doubt here), that's 6.73 million sell through, which is close to 7 million, so I don't see it as being entirely impossible, though 6.5 million is probably just as (if not more) likely. 

My estimates factor in a lot of things going right for Nintendo. If November NPD is under 325k, that will be a big (big) warning sign that the system is not finding a mainstream audience. That 28k that VGC posted for week 1 of November better be heavily undertracked, because that's not a good start to this month. 



tbone51 said:
JoeTheBro said:
Well Wii plus DS was 250 million, so 130 million is horrible numbers relatively.


this is wat i mean, why compare the best to everythng? both those were monsters in sales, 3DS selling 80-120mil is good,last time i checkec its better than vita's 7mil.

 

Just saying


Yea 3DS selling 80-120 million is great, but the OP is acting like 130 combined = Nintendomination which makes zero sense at this point.



OP is so desperate. So I guess Microsoft loses this generation by default because it doesn't have a handheld huh?



Soundwave said:
POE said:
Soundwave said:
POE said:
Soundwave said:
POE said:
Soundwave said:
POE said:
Soundwave said:
POE said:
Soundwave said:
Slarvax said:

I think Wii U could do 60 million at best, but no less than 30 million. The thing is, I don't understand the reason Wii U isn''t selling. Free online, quality titles, actual innovation, backwards compatible, and nothing behind a paywall! Yes, there's not good third party support, but what happened to the +30 million people who bought MarioKart Wii, or +10 million people who bought SSBB/ SMG?


Well saying you don't understand why the system isn't selling probably makes your estimates fairly off base. 

The system is trending considerably below the GameCube right now which fizzled at around 22 million. 

It NEEDS Mario + Mario Kart just to sell at GameCube levels I think. Right now it's way below -- case in point, October 2013 NPD for Wii U is 50k-60k (lets be nice and say it was on the highest end, so 59k). The GameCube sold 168k it's second October by comparision, that's more than double.  

Yes, but by that date, the Gamecube already had a Super Smash Bros (released at launch) and a 3D Mario (Mario Sunshine, July of 2002).  So that comparisson is bullshit.

Yet NSMB Wii outsold Melee + Sunshine by several times over. 2D Mario is a bigger franchise. 

But yeah OK, lets keep pushing the "all it needs is EVEN MORE Mario", thing, lol. Don't get me wrong I think Mario 3D World will help (it can't make things worse), but I get the feeling its going to be a bit of a wake up call for some when it doesn't "save" the system. 


Thank god you said that. Now when the turn around happens it will be very pleasant to talk to you.

When you say "turn around" what exactly do you mean? That it will start selling higher than the GameCube? When exactly? This month? 

Keeping these things vague allows for the arbitrary and constant moving of goal posts that's already been happening all year. 

3D World is a great game, but it's not like NSMBU was a dog turd either. It was a high quality game (probably the best 2D Mario since Super Mario World), so was Nintendo Land for that matter (far deeper and more polished than Wii Sports). 

This is what im saying:

Wii U: 7/7.5 million consoles sold by the end of the year. This starts with Mario
Wii U: Winner of the generation sales wise


I think you're letting your personal fanboy-ism blind yourself with that second prediction there. Not in a million years is that happening. If Mario 3D World can boost Wii U sales to GameCube levels, that will be a minor miracle looking at their NPD sales for October. 

Just you wait.

This just seems to be based on blind hope rather than anything tangiable. 

Lets be optimistic and look at the Wii U's October NPD ... and say its 59k (the range was 50k to under 60k, so we'll give the Wii U the benefit of the doubt and give it the higher end 59k). 

October was the first full month of the $50 price reduction, had the Zelda bundle, the release of Wind Waker HD, Sonic Lost World, Batman: Arkham Origins, Wii Party U, and Just Dance 2014 ... so it's not like it was an entirely barren month. I believe actually the NPD tracking period for October even covered the first couple of days of the NSMBU bundle too. 

Now usually a platform increases in October to November NPD sales by a factor of 2x-4x. Lets be extra generous with the Wii U here and say that it gets an increase of 5x. Hell, lets go even higher and say 6x (virtually unheard of, but ok) ... that would be (59kx6) 354k sold for November.

This is still well below what the GameCube sold its second November (468k) and right around Dreamcast levels of sales. 

Maybe they can pull off a miracle here, but the data I'm looking at just doesn't support it. To get to the sales you are talking about, they need Wii Fit U to turn back the clock and sell systems like its 2008 again, Mario alone doesn't get this job done. 

 

 

By now aprox 4 million Wii U´s has been sold. This makes only 3 million needed to reach the 7/7.5 million that i expect by the end of the year. Between Europe, USA and Japan i think that´s possible; in fact, giving that Mario is coming alongside with Wii Fit U i think that is VERY possible.. 
Next year with Mario Kart, Smash, and a revived Wii U, things will change drastically.

Im willing to bet with you about this subject if you want; about the 7/7.5 million sold by the end of the year{


I think 7 million could be obtainable. 

I'll give the Wii U a huge benefit of the doubt and say it hits 350k for November (which is an extremely high 6x increase from October).

Then looking at historic November to December bumps, lets double that 350k to 700k for December, which is in line with many Nov-Dec holiday bumps (I think Nintendo would be quite pleased with that). 

That's a little more than 1 million sell through for the US market. The Euro/Japan markets tend to be smaller for Nintendo than the NA one, but lets assume Japan and Europe both sell 80% of US (again this may be generous, specifically for Japan), so that's 2.73 million systems sold in the big three markets for November + December. 

Assuming they are at 4 million sell through by the end of October (they probably weren't, but lets again give them the benefit of the doubt here), that's 6.73 million sell through, which is close to 7 million, so I don't see it as being entirely impossible, though 6.5 million is probably just as (if not more) likely. 

My estimates factor in a lot of things going right for Nintendo. If November NPD is under 325k, that will be a big (big) warning sign that the system is not finding a mainstream audience. That 28k that VGC posted for week 1 of November better be heavily undertracked, because that's not a good start to this month. 


Step by step.



Sorry, but Wii U will not sell anything close to PS4. And it pains me to say that, as a big Nintendo fan who has never been fond of Sony's gaming stuff.. But despite being a Nintendo fan, I am also a realist.. (It has a chance to outsell Xbone, though, based mainly off Nintendo's huge advantage over MS in Japan and somewhat in non-UK Europe).

However, if we're talking 3DS + Wii U vs PS4 + Vita, the race becomes far more interesting and more close. I believe it will be something like:

3DS: 100 million + Wii U: 50 million

vs

Vita: 40 million + PS4: 100 million.

So, very close, but Nintendo's two consoles will barely edge out Sony's two consoles when combined.

Wii U is hard to predict as it will largely depend on which direction Nintendo plans on going down with its Wii U games. If they intend on continuing the more Gamecube style niche games they've mainly released thus far for Wii U in 2012 and much of 2013 (Zelda WW, Nintendoland, Wonderful 101, Bayonetta 2, Pikmin 3, etc), then they are doomed to reach sales of no greater than 30 million. However, if they continue with the more oldschool/Wii style games they seem to be headed towards in 2014 with games like Mario 3D World, Wii Fit Plus, Mario Kart 8, Smash Bros, DKC, etc.. than I think 50 million is a safe bet. Luckilly, I think Nintendo is beginning to wise up and focusing far more on the latter, hence my 50 million Wii U sales prediction.