Having an 8 million+ lead on the PS3 doesn't favor the 3DS?

Maybe the 3DS doesn't have as much wiggle room for future price drops as the PS3 had. It also isn't remotely in need of a price drop, nor will it be for a while. It's selling pretty well. It'll be over 15 mil this year (probably over 16 mil), and I expect at least another 13 mil next year. The next two years in the PS3 comparison, it sold about 13 mil and about 13.5 mil. 3DS will be more than 10 mil ahead after next year.

I don't think 3DS will be the long tail seller the PS3 was though. Japan is basically the difference between the two systems, Japan is the strongest market for 3DS, whereas it was PS3's worst. 

Obviously an 8m lead favours the 3DS. But I think $599, a weak 1st party lineup and inferior 3rd party software releases actually held the PS3 back in its earlier years. So although the 3DS is 8m ahead, I just don't see it maintaining that.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it won't happen, I'd just be surprised.

And I think you forget that the 3DS has already had it's massive price drops. It will be $99 for a 2DS on black Friday. You still can't buy a PS3 for anywhere near that.

The 3DS will start selling under 10 million a year when Nintendo releases its successor handheld, and not a year sooner. It's not going to peak in its fifth full year like the PS3 did, but it's not going to crash, either.

If Nintendo cuts its life short and releases a new handheld in 2016, that's their own business.

I'm glad you're so optimistic for the system. I don't see it. Pretty much all the big guns have already been thrown at the system.

Pretty much all the big guns had already been thrown at the DS by mid-2007. The thing about Nintendo's big guns is that they can be fired multiple times... especially their biggest gun. It took GameFreak almost 3 years to release the first real Pokemon game for 3DS. Now that they have the engine and most of the models in place, there'll be another pretty much every year for the remainder of its life.

There are a lot of weapons in Nintendo's armory aside from their big guns, too.

Wasn't the PS3 down to $499 before its first full year was over?

I don't know why anyone would be surprised to see a Nintendo handheld sell over 100 million. Just compare the 3DS to the PSP, which had sold under 20 million total by the end of its second full year. I wouldn't doubt in a million years that the 3DS will stay well ahead of the PSP, unless Nintendo cuts its life short -- which they have even less motivation to consider doing while their home console is struggling so much.

Really? Not everything yet, beside we have one pokemon game, we still need a remake+Director Cut+ Gen 7(if gen 7 comes out, we will see another Director's cut at least and maybe another remake)... then there is SSB+Kirby+ Lots of Nintendo IPs still not present. Also MH5, Another Main Mario, DQ (A True Game meaning a new one) which has yet to be released, Sequels for other big games, etc.

There is still so much more 3DS can do, and its still a long way from a price cut and 2DS is not even out yet for Japan

Wasn't the first year of the PSP Japan exclusive? Again, I'm not going to say the 3DS won't be the biggest success of all time. I just personally don't see it. Also even $499 is hardly a mainstream price for a console. The 360 Premium launched below that.

Personally I'd rather Nintendo focussed on ensuring my Wii U launch unit doesn't become completely irrelivant in the next 12 months.

Basically all of the PS3 big guns were released by 2010, since then its mostly been sequels. Despite that it had its best year in 2011 and has sold well over 30 million since 2010.

2014 could potentially see YoY growth for 3DS, it will be the first full year of 2DS and the $129 price tag. Also it already has a decent line up dor next year, Yoshi/Kirby/Mario Golf/Smash Bros, Dragon Quest in Japan. Some possible games are Majoras Mask remake, Pokemon Z, 3D Land 2, Metroid, Advance Wars. Also the continued legs of Mario Kart/Animal Crossing/Luigis Mansion/3D Land/NSMB2/Pokemon/Monster Hunter.

I'm sorry, I didn't realise I'd touch so many nerves.

The 3DS is going to be the most successful thing of all time. I promise I won't fall off the hype train again!