Wii will hit 30mil the week of july 5th

that's 22 weeks away (including last week cause results not up yet)

360 is currently just over 3.1mil away from hitting 20mil, so it would need to sell >141k/week on average in order to beat the Wii


last week: 115k
prev week: 122k
prev week: 117k

average: 118k/week or 2.6mil or 500k away from hitting 20mil by july 5th

so, will gta/dmc/etc cause 500k extra sales on top of the 2.6mil sales?

looking at halo:

aug 25 2007: 145k

vs

sep 22 2007: 173k
sep 29 2007: 241k +100k
oct 06 2007: 223.6k +80k
oct 13 2007: 210.5k +65k
oct 20 2007: 188k +40k
oct 27 2007: 182k +40k

doesn't seem on the surface that halo 3 caused more than 300k or so in extra sales in the month of launch

dmc4 launched in others and 360 sold same there this week as last week

gta is non-exclusive, but should still move SOME consoles thanks to unique content, but i don't see 500k in extra sales from it

also, looking at last year, sales actually go down during spring/summer from jan/feb sales until they pick up again in aug/sept (too late for this thread)

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39096&end=39355

so unless there is a major price cut that spurs long-term sales increases, i don't see 360 hitting 20mil until the end of july at earliest, while i see wii hitting 31mil+ by end of july

360 to 20 million first. The year has just started so there are many uncertainties at this point. Will be interesting to see how much of a price drop Sony and Microsoft's consoles receive this year and how the market reacts.

I agree with two points here.

The 360 will get to 20M closer ... because it is closer ... though it could go the other way (esp. if Nintendo is hording consoles for SSBB in NA).
I don't think GTA4 will move many 360s because that has been previously a Sony franchise. It might move some PS3s though.

Mike from Morgantown

XBOX 360 by a week or two.

That's actually surprisingly tricky. At first glance you'd say 360, but when thinking about it, Wii actually has a shot.
Nintendo targets to hit 24M shipped by 31.3 and assuming they hit the target, it's only 6M away (if we assume 500k is on the channel, that would mean 6,5M). Brawl NA release and golden week in Japan are going to set a spike to Wii sales, and by looking the current sales rate, Nintendo is stockpiling consoles and propably is going to release some (if not all) stock to these 2 events.
So, after march 31st, Wii should be around 6 million away from the 30M target and 360 still more than 2 million away from 20M (GTA4 release was in april?).
GTA4 release impact is hard to say, but assuming the impact would be sales doubled for 4 weeks WW, that would lead 360 to around 1M from 20M. And Wii might be about 4,5 million short from 30 million. I also assume production increase in april, but at best that would lead Wii to 4 million away at the same time with 360 being 1 million away (unless production increases in feb-march and the increase is being stockpiled, which could lead numbers being 3,5 and 1M).
After that point, it's going to take 2-3 months to reach 20/30M, so it's going to be close according to my assumptions.

Also worth noticing is that everything that has potential to increase 360 sales, will increase it, while Wiis potential goes wasted to supply constrains.

prob. 360 but it should be close

 Except there is also the potential of Nintendo announcing a production increase in their end of year meeting...

The 360 for some odd reason will get there first!

They could be stockpiling for the China and South Korea release though. Every Wii that is made this year will be sold by the end of the year. Nintendo really does need to increase production, at least to 2.4 million or more.