By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii 30 million or xbox360 20 million, what will come first?

Wow tough call haha. Well Wii sales inevitably have to get stronger than they are right now, meaning soon we'll have about an average of 400k a week vs about 130k a week on 360. So yea go from there.



Around the Network

GTA IV is going to be the biggest thing in gaming this year. Maybe ever. It is going to be many times bigger than Halo 3.

But we don't know who it is going to benefit most.
Sony because of the tens of millions of PS2 owners waiting to upgrade and because GTA has mainly been a Sony game in the past.
Microsoft because of all that exclusive content and because they are going to spend tens of millions telling the world about it. And because it gets you into Halo 3, Xbox Live etc as well.

I think 360s are going to become supply limited, just like the Wii was at Christmas. They will very easily get to 20 million before the Wii gets to 30 million. In fact it could be 21 or 22 million. Depends how many they can make.

The Wii will continue to sell 1.8 million a month. Mainly because of Wii Fit. Most Brawls will be bought be existing Wii owners.



Incisive and erudite blog by game industry professional.

http://www.bruceongames.com/

 

Doing the math assuming that sales remain constant with this week's data I'd say the Wii would win by about one week. But considering in the releases of Wii Fit, Brawl, Mario Kart for the Wii, also considering supply constraints in NA, and GTAIV for the 360 then I'd say the 360 will just pass the 20 million mark before the Wii hits 30 million.

It'll be close, but the 360 only needs to sell about 3.2 million while the Wii needs about 9 million, and with supply still not meeting demand in NA and if Nintendo doesn't increase production again then I don't expect to see very dramatic increases in sales for the Wii. GTA will sell enough systems to get over the bump.



Kingdom Hearts 3 Bet: If Kingdom Hearts 3 becomes a multiplaform title/is not Wii exclusive then I will be banished from this land for 1 week and sing my praises to those who have proved themselves to be more intelligent than I.http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y267/RDBRaptor/rdbraptor_sig16.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">
My Anime List

i think xbox to 20 million because it has the least further to go, i'd say when 360 gets 20 million wii will be 27-29 million



 

 

Let's see: Wii: 1.8M/month, but 1.6 due to getting it there and saving for christmas.

9/1.6=5.6 months, or 5 months and 20 days, or about 8/1/2008.

Will X360 reach sell 3.3M before 1st August 2008? I think it will.



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

Around the Network
Oyvoyvoyv said:
Let's see: Wii: 1.8M/month, but 1.6 due to getting it there and saving for christmas.

9/1.6=5.6 months, or 5 months and 20 days, or about 8/1/2008.

Will X360 reach sell 3.3M before 1st August 2008? I think it will.


Nintendo will probably increase production, and launch the Wii in more countries (most notably China and South Korea).

However, considering GTA4 and price cuts, I'll say 360. The Chinese/Korean launches will probably happen after the 360 reaches 20 million anyway...

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

I think the 360 will be first.



Xbox360



Vgchartz = Video...Charts

(On Machina request take off from my sign..........)

That's a good question. I'll take a rough guess and estimate that the 360 will sell at an average rate of about 130k per week. (It will do more than that in the launch period of Grand Theft Auto, but less than that at other times.) At that rate, it would take 25 weeks to reach 20m units sold. If the Wii sells at the current weekly rate, which is roughly 350k, it would sell a little less than 9m units, and come up a bit short.

My guestimate would therefore be that the 360 will reach the mark first, although rather narrowly. Obviously if the 360 averages less than 130k/week, or the Wii more than 350k, this will be substantially off.



My Website

End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)

PS3 will get most of the GTA boost in Europe, and part of it in America.

However, we're unlikely to see the result of a Wii production boost before GTA launches. And we're unlikely to see Wii Fit or Mario Kart release anywhere else before GTA launches.

Will GTA boost 360 to 20 million straight away? No. It will boost the system by some 500K-700K over 6 weeks.

And by the end of June, we'll see the results of a Wii production boost and Wii Fit in America and Europe, which will create a bigger, more sustained boost than GTA will.

Still, the raw sales needed for 360 is so much less I'm still tempted to go that way. It will certainly be closer than Microsoft or Nintendo could have imagined 8 months ago.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.