Man what a tough question.

I'm a Wii fan, but I have to say the 360 will hit 20 1st unless Nintendo ups production. If production increases and Brawl is as big as it should be and Wiifit gets released in time then yeah the Wii could do it, but I don't see any of that happening before the 360 hits 20 million.

Looking at the current numbers, the 360 is getting roughly 500K a month in sales, and the Wii 1.2mil a month in sales. Given that the Wii needs 9 million to hit 30mil and the 360 needs 3.3 million to hit 20mil, I think it's more or less assured that the 360 will hit 20 million first. Even with ramped-up production and increased stock of Wiis after the 31st of March, there's almost no way they could manage to sell 6.6 million systems in the time the 360 sells 2.3 million. They would have to sell nearly 3 times as many systems as the 360 for about 3 months straight.

The 360 will likely see its numbers decrease as the year goes on. The Wii will command strong numbers and will likely do better than 1.2 million a month. I still say the Wii will make it to about 32 million by the time the 360 gets to 20 million.

 I don't know about that Render, at its current rate of sales 360 will need around 5-6 months to reach 20 million, meaning sometime in july or august, if Wii were to maintain 1.2 million in sales (with a possible 600K being stockpiled if 1.8 is its actual production), then yes it would fall short, but if Nintendo ups its production so that 1.8 million arrives on the market every month (possibly 2.4 true production if not higher), after march, then its possible Wii could reach 30 million first, of course this depends on Nintendo's production choices once the 2007 fiscal year ends

Probably Wii.
GTA4 won`t boost much x360 sales, because most people who wanted GTA4 on x360 already bought x360, while ps3 sales in usa are not that high to comply with demand.
and europe will prefer ps3 for GTA4.

Unless, Wii will lose steam, after almost all nintendo fans bought it. =)

Nintendo will not be stockpiling for Christmas now. They do some shifting of shipments and stockpiling for a few weeks for major releases, but they are not going to do any major stockpiling for something a month away while demand > supply. Sales will start averaging 1.8 mil a month soon. In fact, by the time 5 months is up, I will not be surprised if production is increased and we see higher sales.

It will be close due to GTA 4, but I think Wii will get there sooner.

i think wii.....xbox360 sales are getting lower and lower...

Wii should hit the 30 mil mark first as sales will pick up for wii and 360's will remain steady for a few months.

Tricky with GTA.

I think maybe 360, as it seems microsoft are planning a big push arround GTA time. If nintendo ups wii production though, it could well still take it.