Wii 30 million or xbox360 20 million, what will come first?

[bdbdbd]

That's actually surprisingly tricky. At first glance you'd say 360, but when thinking about it, Wii actually has a shot.
Nintendo targets to hit 24M shipped by 31.3 and assuming they hit the target, it's only 6M away (if we assume 500k is on the channel, that would mean 6,5M). Brawl NA release and golden week in Japan are going to set a spike to Wii sales, and by looking the current sales rate, Nintendo is stockpiling consoles and propably is going to release some (if not all) stock to these 2 events.
So, after march 31st, Wii should be around 6 million away from the 30M target and 360 still more than 2 million away from 20M (GTA4 release was in april?).
GTA4 release impact is hard to say, but assuming the impact would be sales doubled for 4 weeks WW, that would lead 360 to around 1M from 20M. And Wii might be about 4,5 million short from 30 million. I also assume production increase in april, but at best that would lead Wii to 4 million away at the same time with 360 being 1 million away (unless production increases in feb-march and the increase is being stockpiled, which could lead numbers being 3,5 and 1M).
After that point, it's going to take 2-3 months to reach 20/30M, so it's going to be close according to my assumptions.

Also worth noticing is that everything that has potential to increase 360 sales, will increase it, while Wiis potential goes wasted to supply constrains.