Here's the big question. Which will be the first to beat Halo 3, SSBB or SMG? Wii Fit perhaps a dark horse?

i say smg will pass halo 3 first, then ssbb, then wii fit... then mario kart sometime next year

 I agree with you except I think that all will pass Halo 3 by the end of the year, as long as Mario Kart comes out before Oct or so.

SSBB may come close to Halo 3's first weeks sales. I expect SSBB to outsell Halo 3 in the long run.

I think SSBB will beat Halo 3's 1st week sales in Japan (duh) and Others, but not in NA. Overall it'll be pretty close, but I'd go with Halo. Lifetime, SSBB easily.

Lifetime: SSBB super easily
First week: probably yes

I don't think so. SSBM did in Japan have 25 % of its total sales in its first week. I think that is the same WW since Americans buy the game even more on first day, while Europeans do it less. So 25 % for SSBM. I don't think SSBB will be exactly that, but let us just assume that.

Then we have to see how much it would sell. To outsell Halo's first week with 25 % of sales first week, it would have to sell 16M in total.

If 20% it would need to sell 20M in total, and IMO that is highly doubtful.

If 33 %, it would need to sell 12M, which I strongly believe it will.

Judging by that, I'd say it has a shot.

If we look at it another way, Japan SSBB = Japan + Europe Halo3. Can SSBB for Europe + America outsell Halo 3 in America? To do that, SSBB needs to sell about 3M.

Wii's base in Europe + America is at 16M, and will be at 17M by SSBB time. This means that only 1/6 people will have to buy it first week. 1/3 360 owners bought Halo 3 first week, so really, Wii only needs half the attachment rate.

By that, I'd also say SSBB will make it

Galaxy sold 850K first week in its first week across Europe and USA. SSBB will need 3.5 times of that, with only 1/5 bigger base.

Now, it did have a 3.2 times bigger opening in Japan, and that will almost be enough.

To sum it up: Will SSBB sell more in Europe + USA than Halo 3 did in USA?

smash bros brawl will easily outsell halo 3 without a problem.

first week i think it wont outsell halo3 but it will be close maybe 3 mil first week,but lifetime total it will definitely pass it,i think it might pass it by the end of the year

Wow this is actually a lot closer than I thought it would be. But somehow I still have this feeling people are overestimating brawl a bit in terms of availability for week 1 in the US. If Nintendo ships enough I think it will very likely be a close race but if they don't then obviously Halo 3 will easily retain the "First Week Sales" crown.