superchunk said:
I don't think they are lying.
That video had these points:
1) The 5 ports cost around $1.2m to make each. Which Ubi said was VERY low for a port and which ZombiU was not included in.
2) ZombiU was a different game at first, however, he incorrectly stated it was intended for PS360. It was ALWAYS a Wii U exclusive game even as Killer Freaks from Outer Space.
So this has always been a Wii U game built ground up on Wii U hardware. Hardware that was likely routinely changing and from all rumors known, it changed quite a bit as Nintendo went from all newer parts to focus on items that were essentially along the same architecture family as Wii so it could continue backwards compatibility.
If a true port like AC3 cost Ubi about $1.2m, then a ground up new game that definitely had a lot of R&D work along with actual game finalization due to it taking big changes in game direction... it had to have cost quite a bit more to make.
I'd wager heavily that ZombiU had a cost of $10m, give or take a small %. This would still be considered "lower" than the average HD game for PS360 which wikipedia has sources showing the average is $18m to $20m. So I don't think saying an exclusive game like ZombiU cost Ubi $10m+ to create is too far fetched.
Now, this is a game that Nintendo had a hand in an potentially paid a portion of it. However, we have no sources saying anything about Nintendo's investment in this game beyond the obvious of marketing and bundling with hardware where they likely paid Ubi for these copies of the game.
For the sake of argument let's take THIS IMAGE as fact since it seems pretty legit. That means Ubi would make $18 per full priced copy.
We know they sold over 500,000 to retail and some unknown amount digitally. But since some of those 500,000 are definitely not at the full price we'll make an assumption and say that only 500,000 total sold and they gave Ubi $18 each back.
$18 * 500,000 = $9,000,000 So that's $9m of GROSS REVENUE to Ubi.
But, that doesn't include packaging, shipping, non-developer salary costs, etc.
So yes, its VERY likely that Ubi, a company that doesn't have the history of attacking Nintendo like EA and others do, is telling 100% truth that ZombiU has NOT come close to breaking even yet, let along being profitable.
Now, this doesn't mean the game was a failure in its own right either. It does have a 14% attachment rate which is VERY high. Had WiiU sold 2m more consoles and thus reached their original goal, ZombiU should be around 800,000 units sold thus, making it profitable in the first 6mos on the market. As it is now, it will take two years or so to reach profitability on a console that will grow but will also have far more competition.
Granted, that's assuming word of mouth for the game as well as budget pricing and decent placement in eShop allows it to continue to sell a few hundred thousand more copies. Something not really heard of from any publishers that is not named Nintendo. Thus, its not likely to get a sequel. |
That sounds reasonable. I'm not sure they got the full price on the bundles though. I think Nintendo and Ubisoft made a deal that the price is reduced, but the bundling would help Ubisoft to get a better position on the console. So probably the return is even a bit lower than you gave it.
I can't believe Ubisoft calculated with multiple millions to break even, but I think they were content to make some loss, as the first true exclusive for a platform offers different advantages: they now have a working engine, learned how to use the special features of the gamepad and have sales data for a new exclusive with supporting advertising from Nintendo. So I think they were in before accepting that the game might produce some loss.
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