Thats missing the point. Yes, 560k sales on a 3.2 million user base is great, however that by itself doesn't mean anything for Ubisoft. All they care about is total units sold, and from what they've said, 560k wasn't enough to turn a profit. People saying that obviously Ubisoft should have used a smaller budget is ignoring the reality that no one expected the Wii U to sell this bad, not Ubisoft and certainly not Nintendo. You only have to look at the number of times Nintendo has revised the sales target down since launch. This game if like most games would have been in development for ~ 2 years before the Wii U was released. Could Ubisoft be expected to guess that the Wii U would sell as bad as it has (both 360 and PS3 never got anywhere near 22k/week sales even at their lowest points)? Again, I'd say no, particularly after the success of the Wii.

If 3rd party companies makes games that are profitable on 250k sales people complain that the Wii U gets half arsed games and shovelware, and if 3rd parties produce AA/AAA games that don't turn a profit then people complain that its the 3rd parties fault they can't balance their budgets. End of the day its an investment decision on their part, if the userbase is low then the risk is high that a high budget game will be unprofitable. If Nintendo wants those games on its platform then it needs to help 3rd parties offload some of that risk, either by helping fund the game or provide expertise to help reduce cost. It seems like Nintendo isn't doing either, their gameplan is for their 1st party games to create the userbase needed for the 3rd parties to flourish. The problem with that is that Nintendo has taken on all of the risk of the new platform, because if they have issues with getting their 1st party games out (which they appear to be having) then there is no plan B. You have a dying platform that can't sustain the game sales needed to encourage further game development. I'm not saying Nintendo is there yet, but it appears they are on their way. 

Yes, maybe their ambition brought the biggest publishers to consider "low budget" funds that for talented, but more frugal publishers and devs would be enough to produce AAA titles, just look at The Witcher series.

First of all you need to shorten the quote trees in the future.

Then some of your examples are not valid.

Godeneye (Wii) was an exclusive game, that came to PS360 much later. It would have been disastrous if the Wii version sold less.

Your ZombiU vs. The Last of Us comparison doesn't make ANY sense. You say that TLOU needs to sell more to reach 14.4 percent, since the PS3 will sell more consoles, but you completely forget that WiiU will also sell more but ZombiU won't sell accordingly. At the end of the gen ZombiU's attach rate will be between 1% and 2%.
Hell at the end of the year it will already go down to ~7%.

Shenmue cost $40 million in development so the cost of tripleA games varies wildly. Gears really can't be used as good example in these circumstances as they don't account for Unreal Engine cost, all other development budget usually accounts for either licensing fees for engine or development of engine for the game.

I think $20m would be a bare minimum tbh.

Edit: There are exception, such as Frostbite being used inhouse for EA which is aimed at reducing development cost and stop it from blowing up even further...

Thats a valid point, and this is why 3rd parties releasing all of their fall games on almost all platforms. And the only true nextgen games are published by MS and Sony. Because they have to push those consoles because it is to risky for third paries to do. 

Zombie U looked like a cheaply made game even, but lord they must've spent more than I thought if it didnt sell well.

Well Unreal Engine 3 wasn't created for Gears of War though. But sure feel free to add licensing costs for it. As I mentioned earlier we know how much Epic wants. about $1m.

You call Frostbite an exception, but in reality it's not the case that every game from one developer comes with a new engine. In fact many publishers share the engines from one of their devs with others. Therefore no engine development costs or licensing costs would apply.

Fair enough, the main point was that tripleA budget varies wildly even if the game itself may not look like it has a high production value.

The likely hood this is not beause of the game itself, but the installed base of the platform meant it just couldnt sell what was required to be profitable.

Shenmue actually cost over $70 million.