coreyerb said:
Fun with numbers!: Killzone: Shadow Fall edition.
Launch exclusive for PS4, right? Okay, so Killzone 3 sold 2.48 million, let's say there were 40 million PS3s sold when it released in 2011 (offhand no idea how many of the 77.95 PS3s were sold at lower prices since 2011, it's just an estimate). You say KZ:SF will do better than it, so let's double its sales rate. Right, so 2.48M / 40M = 6.2 percent attach rate. All right, KZ:SF nails it, hits 12.4 percent attach rate during launch window.
In order to hit a million sold, even at an unreasonable 12.4 percent attach rate, PS4 will have to sell 8 million consoles. How long will it take to sell that many PS4s? Less than the eight months it took for Ubisoft's CEO to complain about ZombiU's sales? Maybe. What if it only sells as well as KZ3 (more likely)? 16 million consoles necessary to get it to a million, and that's assuming dev costs for PS4 don't raise the profitability benchmark.
That's my point, there are going to be a lot of third-party publishers complaining about not hitting their sales expectations for launch games if they're going to need to break a million sales to break even. Don't make an expensive launch game if you can't afford a loss as a down payment for future sequels.
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Thats a valid point, and this is why 3rd parties releasing all of their fall games on almost all platforms. And the only true nextgen games are published by MS and Sony. Because they have to push those consoles because it is to risky for third paries to do.
