Like Bleszinski said, you underestimate the average consumer. Remember the ridicule aimed at the Kinect, yet look at the sales it generated. I don't see a 5:1 sales disparity occurring. Perhaps a 3:2.

Missed the point entirly. 

Casual gamers make consoles a success. It happened with PS2. It happened more so with the Wii. Are you really suggesting all the 100 mil or so wii gamers are hardcore??? Please they are soccer moms who have traded in their wii's for ipads... which is why wii is in such a dismal state at the moment, and will never recover. 

That is why no one console could possibly see the same success as wii / ps2.

Maybe but I hope not because I like competition.

When i see the game in Wii and wii u  how hardcore game sold poorly and how casual games sold really well  i know this two console are casual consoles but casual game sold really poorly in ps3 and ps2,the best move game sold only 3 millions and half copy, i don't think they are more then 50 millions casuals in ps2.

You only get one chance at a first impression and Xbox failed miserably on the 21st. Then it was "wait for E3." They showed basically all of their guns to their biggest market and it's barely being talked about because of the used games and online stuff that Sony said at their conference along with the price. They don't have the head start like with PS2 but damn I don't see how Xbox could ever reach anywhere near the level of its predecessors.

I mean even launching along side each other at the same price would've wiped out their big advantages from last gen. Now they have to launch close and be $100 more expensive with so much bad press about WHAT they're selling (something PS3 didn't have to deal with it was just HOW MUCH they were selling it at). Couple that with PS' online being just as good at the START of the gen this time to avoid that stigma and you've got yourself a recipe for dominance. I see it being PS4=50%, WiiU=30%, and MS=20% if I'm being generous.

The new IP didn't even make a little dent in the negativity and now Don is saying "just buy a 360" uh no Don I want next gen gaming so imma go ahead and buy PS4 if I want an offline experience. Now they're left with nothing to show for the rest of the year and Sony will be guns blazing at Gamescom since they haven't come close to showing their 20 exclusives in the first year and TGS of course MS will be non existent. Nintendo solid as always.

you're the only one who keeps bringing up Wii he's talking about PS2.  Also PS3 is going to sell about 100m and it had a HORRENDOUS start.  PS4 will have more market share almost certainly.  The tablet argument works for mobile but I don't see how it effects how people play on their 50" TVs.

Don't you think the lately overcasualization of gaming can have transformed a whole bunch of casuals into hardcore ?

By the way casuals have social/mobile gaming, they don't need console, but things like digital sales and ps+ really incent to buy more games, so less console sales is not less profit. 

Maybe we go in a direction where overall income from console gaming will be up, but consoles number will go down.

Maybe PS4 can beat PS2 in terms of number of software sales. Just maybe.

I believe so, but I think Xboxo will be more popular than Xbox1(the original)

Bold: Not sure if I would say that PS4 will do 100m+.

Italics: No.  Just, no.  A MAXIMUM of 25m is NOT fair, it is under the assumption that the Wii U will be a complete utter flop as you're saying over 100m for PS4, nearly 100m for XB1, and not even 25m for Wii U.  It seems like to me your predictions are based on how the Internet has been reacting, and sales have proved over and over again how wrong the Internet and media can be.  Gamecube, by that standard, should have sold.  DS should have flopped.  PS Vita should be winning.  3DS should be flopping.  Wii should have flopped.  PS3 should have flopped (from initial reactions).

I think 25m MINIMUM is fair, and that between PS4 and Xbox, 230m maximum is fair.

edit: however I'm more like expecting 120m between the two.