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Forums - Sales Discussion - What if Wii actually ends up in 3rd place?

z101 on 28 May 2013
pezus said:

"The king is dead. Long live the king!"

Will this be the song of our children, 3-4 years from now, when (if?) PS3 outsells Wii and retakes the throne that Nintendo stole from Sony back in 2007?

Not only is Nintendo's throne threatened by Sony, but now Microsoft wants a slice of that pie as well. They expect around 100m Xbox 360's to be sold eventually. Is there a real danger here that both PS3 and 360 will overtake Wii, only to leave Wii in 3rd and last place?


Microsoft wanted to sell many Windows 8 as well ... and W8 has been a great failure up to now.

I don't think that there will be many more Xbox360 or PS3 sold when the new consoles are out, let alone more than 20 million more to overtake Wii sales.



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Michael-5 on 28 May 2013
menx64 said:
with last month's NPD, and new consoles coming this year, I seriously doubt they will even reach 90...

Last 4 years of sales

  Wii 360 PS3   PS2
2009 21.3 10.16 13 2005 18.78
2010 17.32 13.25 13.9 2006 13.66
2011 11.52 13.81 14.71 2007 11.09
2012 5.25 11.1 12.73 2008 8.93

PS3 and 360 had peak sales in 2011 (PS2 peaked in 2002), where Wii peaked in 2008. Wii sold well for 3 years after it peaked, and PS2 sold really well for 3 years after being surpassed, and moderatly well (4-6 million) for 3 more years.

PS3/360 sales will not likely crash like Wii's did because the consoles just peaked in 2011. If you look at PS3 and 360's 2013 sales, they are selling 80-90% as well as they did in 2012. PS3 and 360 will get another 4-7 million units in this year which will put them over 80 million, and will likely sell well next year too (so close to 90 million there). Then the question is, with the PS3 have a long tail like PS2 (PS2 sold 30% of it's lifetime sales, 50 million units, after it was replaced), or will the PS3 and 360 have short ones like the Wii and DS (DS will only likely sell 10% of its lifetime sales, 15 million units in total after being replaced. Wii is the same at 10% and 10 million)?

PS3's tail only needs to be 20% of it's lifetime sales for it to top 100 million, so as long as PS4 doesn't completely kill off the PS3 (like 3DS did to DS) then PS3 should come out on top. I think this will happen because PS4 is not BC, so the demand for PS3 will still exist.

360 though, I don't think it will get 100 million like the company believes. 5 million more this year (82), 6 next (88), 3.5 in 2015 (91.5) and then a slow trickle to maybe 95 million.

MoHasanie said:
Doesn't matter cause the Wii was the most profitable

LOL, and 360 is the second most profitable, but PS3 might win in sales.



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Michael-5 on 28 May 2013
Otakumegane said:
Doubt it will happen, PS3 ain't no PS2.

One of the reasons PS2 sold so well was that PS3 was awful for the 1st couple of years. PS4 looking better than the PS3 was in the early days.

One of the reasons being the marginal utility of a blu-ray playing HD console is low if you don't have the HDTV to really experience it not really reason to get a spanking new console. Oh yeah and online.

Another is the 360. Unlike the 6th gen, 360 offers a very similar library at a lower cost. Where as the PS2 completely dominated the 6th gen and had the best library.

Then there's piracy. Which one's easiest to pirate again? I believe it was the 360 wasn't it? Wii's pretty durn easy too.

It's pretty bollocks even with the developing market right now to think that PS3 has a chance without China opening up. They already have a rich gaming culture, HDTVs and pretty good online.

You make some good points, but at the same time remember, PS3 was BC, PS4 is not. I'm sure a lot of potential PS4 buyers still want to play their favorite PS3 games.

But anything can happen. PS3 will be at 80 million when it's replaced. PS2 sold 45% more units after being replaced (50 million ontop of 110 million). PS3 only needs to sell 30% more units after being replaced (80 plus 25 million more). Weather this happens or not, we won't know until mid-8th gen, and weather or not this happens, it will be close.



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noname2200 on 28 May 2013
sales2099 said:

In quantity sure. But the exclusives themselves never made a splash in the industry, apart from the heavy hitter IPs, thus most of them didn't sell as good as multiplat games in similar genres.

I'm referring to first-party offerings though, all of which were exclusives. The multi-plats' performances were varied, with some doing better than other systems and some doing worse, but generally speaking third-parties didn't put their heavy hitters on the Wii, which I take as further evidence in support of my position.



radiantshadow92 on 28 May 2013
DevilRising said:
radiantshadow92 said:

I hope it happens so that once again everyone will know that games sell consoles. Either way though no one will care...


It's funny you should say that, because Wii had some of the best games of the gen on any console.

Mario Galaxy 1 & 2, No More Heroes 1 & 2, Red Steel 2, Tatsunoko vs. Capcom, RE4 Wii Edition, Monster Hunter 3, NSMBWii, Zelda: Twilight Princess, Zelda: Skyward Sword, Smash Bros. Brawl, Okami remake, Muramasa: The Demon Blade, Mario Kart Wii, Excite Truck, Little King's Story, Punch Out, the best version of Ghostbusters, Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn, Metroid Prime 3/Trilogy, Wario Land, Goldeneye remake, Donkey Kong Country Returns, Kirby Epic Yarn & Return to Dreamland, Boom Blox, de Blob, Batallion Wars II, Zack & Wiki, Super Paper Mario, A Boy and His Blob remake, the Lost Winds games, the Cave Story remake, the La-Mulana remake, the Blaster Master remake, Konami's "ReBirth" series, Final Fantasy IV: The After Years, Xenoblade, The Last Story, Sin & Punishment 2, Pandora's Tower, etc.

And that's not even listing honorable mentions like Mushroom Men, FFCC: The Crystal Bearers, Arc Rise Fantasia, Fragile, Cursed  Mountain, the Wii version of Star Wars: The Force Unleashed I, Geometry Wars Galaxies, The Munchables, Opoona, Tales of Symphonia 2, Silent Hill: Shattered Memories, the RE "Chronicles" games,  the Endless Ocean games, etc. etc. etc.

And if all that weren't enough, quite frankly, Wii Sports, for all the crap it got from "the hardcore", at the end of the day was a pretty fun game itself.

 

So I'd certainly say that Wii had it's share of games, GOOD games, that helped sell the system just fine.


did u really have to make a list of games lol...how long ago was the last major wii release? thats what i thought...unlike the wii, the ps360 are still getting games....



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snowdog on 28 May 2013

If both the PS3 and 360 sell over 100m that would probably indicate that their current gen consoles are flopping. :o/



curl-6 on 28 May 2013
pezus said:
curl-6 said:

Then we're not talking about the same "throne".

Yeah, well, what do you think about my definition of this throne? That is, due you think PS3 can take it?

It's definitely possible, all depends on how well PS3 and PS4 can co-exist.



menx64 on 28 May 2013
pezus said:
menx64 said:
with last month's NPD, and new consoles coming this year, I seriously doubt they will even reach 90...

How much did PS2 sell in America last year and how much outside of America? Heck, even Q1 this year?


 The PS3 is not the same as the PS2... not even close...



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DietSoap on 29 May 2013
pezus said:
curl-6 said:
The throne is secure, the 8th gen has already begun and will kick into high gear these holidays.
Passing the winner AFTER the finish line isn't winning.

Who defines the finish line like that? Isn't DS the highest selling console of all time then? Wii probably close to it as well. No, that's not how it works. When you look at wikipedia, vgchartz or whatever to look at sales numbers for old consoles you don't look at what they sold before their successor came out. You look at their total sales. 

Seriously. By Curl's logic, the Genesis beat the SNES since it was still beating it by a healthy margin when the Saturn kicked off the 5th gen.



DevilRising on 29 May 2013

The only reason that PS2 continued to sell the way it did, and thus why Sony kept it on shelves at a cheap price, is because the PS3 was selling awfully for it's first couple of years. Sony has no intention, I would think, of allowing this to happen, if they can help it, with PS4. So I don't think there's any chance that PS3 sells for any longer than through perhaps 2014. And certainly not at huge numbers.