What if Wii actually ends up in 3rd place?

[Michael-5]

menx64 said:
with last month's NPD, and new consoles coming this year, I seriously doubt they will even reach 90...

Last 4 years of sales

	Wii	360	PS3		PS2
2009	21.3	10.16	13	2005	18.78
2010	17.32	13.25	13.9	2006	13.66
2011	11.52	13.81	14.71	2007	11.09
2012	5.25	11.1	12.73	2008	8.93

PS3 and 360 had peak sales in 2011 (PS2 peaked in 2002), where Wii peaked in 2008. Wii sold well for 3 years after it peaked, and PS2 sold really well for 3 years after being surpassed, and moderatly well (4-6 million) for 3 more years.

PS3/360 sales will not likely crash like Wii's did because the consoles just peaked in 2011. If you look at PS3 and 360's 2013 sales, they are selling 80-90% as well as they did in 2012. PS3 and 360 will get another 4-7 million units in this year which will put them over 80 million, and will likely sell well next year too (so close to 90 million there). Then the question is, with the PS3 have a long tail like PS2 (PS2 sold 30% of it's lifetime sales, 50 million units, after it was replaced), or will the PS3 and 360 have short ones like the Wii and DS (DS will only likely sell 10% of its lifetime sales, 15 million units in total after being replaced. Wii is the same at 10% and 10 million)?

PS3's tail only needs to be 20% of it's lifetime sales for it to top 100 million, so as long as PS4 doesn't completely kill off the PS3 (like 3DS did to DS) then PS3 should come out on top. I think this will happen because PS4 is not BC, so the demand for PS3 will still exist.

360 though, I don't think it will get 100 million like the company believes. 5 million more this year (82), 6 next (88), 3.5 in 2015 (91.5) and then a slow trickle to maybe 95 million.

MoHasanie said:
Doesn't matter cause the Wii was the most profitable

LOL, and 360 is the second most profitable, but PS3 might win in sales.