PS3 isn't PS2, people. Get over it.

Given the expected sales curve for both, 2016 could make sense. It could happen before only if Sony expands PS3 market to new countries. It could happen later if Sony doesn't expand and Ninty keeps on shipping Wii longer, even accepting low volumes.

It's 140k weekly, not monthly, lol. ;)

OT: Hard to predict. It's a feat that it's even possible and it's gonna be very close either way. I'd say it's at 50/50, and if it does it'll be in 2016-2017.

Dat developing market.

If it does catch Wii, it needs a long tail in these markets. Gonna be close!

I'll be overly optimistic and maybe unrealistic and vote 2015. ^^

I think The complexity and custom nature of the ps3 makes $150 the best you can expect. There is a slim chance of it hitting 100m, but I would back it being discontinued before that happens as there simply won't be enough profit in it for them to keep the production line open. Selling to new markets only makes sense if there is profit, Sony aren't in the game just to make fan's happy with their sales numbers, EOL 2015/2016.

I think Superchunk's projections seem fairly reasonable. The PS3 is not like the PS2. PS2 was the weakest, cheapest to make console among the big 3, had complete market dominence and continued as a budget console for years. If people wanted a budget machine, PS2 was the obvious choice. PS3 has a fairly even split among the others for market share, so if a person wants a budget machine these days it could be PS3, X360 or Wii. PS3 is also too expensive to make to be come super cheap. So the real cheapos will buy a Wii.

Anyone thinking that China will push the PS3 past Wii...why wouldn't China push Wii -with its low cost and very accessible format - further ahead of the PS3? Both Sony and Nintendo were pleased with the opening up of China as a potential market.

I would say that PSP to Vita is a better comparission than PS2 to PS3 when judging how a successor will impact the aging PS3. And looking at that case, the PSP saw sales drop 50% at launch of Vita. I think PS3 sales will dip 50% in each of the coming years. Again, unless PS4 is very expensive and/or a major flop, which I don't think will be the case.

See BananaKing21's comment. I'm giving you chance to change that comment.

It will not happen. The Wii will have to stop selling completely and Nintendo not try to move into China with the Wii. (Which they already have intentions to do so if the market opens up.) At current sales and the Wii not moving it will take over three years for the PS3 to reach 99 million. I say the PS3 will probably be with in reach of it but fall short, especially if they want to push Geneki(spelling) as their backwards compatibility service, which would make the PS3 a competing product. Sony will probably discontinue the PS3 in 2015 if their investment goes well.

it is kinda ironic, is that one of the thing's that made the PS3 so expensive, will be one of the thing's that will keep the PS3 on the market longer in emerging market's. the PS3 is one of the Best Blu-Ray player's out there, along with one of the most used systems for streaming entertainment content streaming such as Hulu+ an Netflicks usage etc. with even still a price point of $249.00 and higher! that is the point its price point is still $249.00 when it's price drops say to $179.99 the value of a Streaming box like the PS3 will still be quite viable in the Market. Blu-Ray is the standard for HD physical disc based movie content distribution along with the ability to play those standard legacy DVD playback disc's that many still have in their collection. this is aside of Movie streaming and Game playing.

selling upto 25 more million world wide in say the next 4 years , with yet a lower price, More 1st party offering's on the PS3 and the PS3's entry price being lowered what would be a more expensive market for the PS3 now. and the fact that the 1st party software is still going to be put out for the PS3. be that disc based or PSN based DLC. Sony can release support for the PS3 via PSN download software or movie streaming content to the PS3 for low cost higher ROI. An people think Sony is not going to do that?

it seems some think the PS3's market viability is going to dry up over night, when even Sony stated they intend to still support the PS3 even though they have the PS4 releasing soon, and that they will still support the PS3 for several year's.

remember Unity 3D game engine will be able to be used on the PS3+the PSVita+the PS4. so a lower cost investment of make a single game once work on three platforms and can be released on PSN! no physical disc, but buy it once work on all three platforms.

Sony's building up a Playstation ECO system, and that build up of the eco system includes the PS3!

some may think its too late, but in emerging market's the lower price point along with its content streaming functionality the PS3 will still be viable even 4 to 5 years from now. Because the PS3 is not just a game machine only!  Multi-functional and the Price point is still seen in some cases too High. but the Question is would those that see the price point too high than buy the PS3 when it lower's its price point?

what would the desire for a ps3 decline over time or make way to purchase a PS3. even when a PS4 releases. say by the time the PS4 release's what price point will the PS3 be @, and if the PS4 is  over $400.00 or near that price point, would people look at the PS3 as the better buy? im betting they would! its this very thing brought up many time's a new system gets released, and many people on the fence say well the previous gen system is cheaper, and has all this software i can get. So why do you think Sony continues to support their system's?

because unless stores stop re ordering more Sony will continue to sell the system. that's why.

Is the desire to own a PS3 higher now than it was a few years ago in the market? has the market decided the PS3's decline for its viability in this market at an all time low? there is many points that show the PS3's viability in the market is looking to stay in the market longer than many thought it would, you cannot have it both way's at first many called the PS3 dying because of its higher price, and called it a failure because of its support in the first few years on the market and how much money Sony lost over the PS3, but than when the PS3's market growth continue's to increase not shrink even past 7 years on the market. you think the PS4 releases and the PS3's viability is going to plummit?

when the price point of the PS3 and its functionality will have use's even with the PS4 being the newest Playstation. The PS4 will have the higher price point. those that still have not purchased the PS3 , will they skip the PS3 over for the PS4? When the PS4 will not be backward compatable with the PS3 software?

Sony has shown that they are more than willing to support the previous generation platform along side of the new released system. and with Sony courting more indie developer's there more room for the PS3 support to continue than just relying on the newest playstation.