I think Superchunk's projections seem fairly reasonable. The PS3 is not like the PS2. PS2 was the weakest, cheapest to make console among the big 3, had complete market dominence and continued as a budget console for years. If people wanted a budget machine, PS2 was the obvious choice. PS3 has a fairly even split among the others for market share, so if a person wants a budget machine these days it could be PS3, X360 or Wii. PS3 is also too expensive to make to be come super cheap. So the real cheapos will buy a Wii.
Anyone thinking that China will push the PS3 past Wii...why wouldn't China push Wii -with its low cost and very accessible format - further ahead of the PS3? Both Sony and Nintendo were pleased with the opening up of China as a potential market.
I would say that PSP to Vita is a better comparission than PS2 to PS3 when judging how a successor will impact the aging PS3. And looking at that case, the PSP saw sales drop 50% at launch of Vita. I think PS3 sales will dip 50% in each of the coming years. Again, unless PS4 is very expensive and/or a major flop, which I don't think will be the case.
