Lets break that down into weekly sales which I find a bit easier to deal with.

FY2013- 230 K a week.  I don't think this is very likely, unless the PS4 has a very weak launch.

BTW according to VGChartz Data, the PS3 sold 11.2 million in 2012.  To date, the PS3 is 32% down YOY.  Why do you expect it to be so close 20 2012 sales whether we're talking about FY or just plain old Jan-December years.

FY2014-  193,207 k a week-  With the X-Box 720, PS4 on the market, the Wii U picking up, and a presumable shortage of content, I don't see this happening.  A big price drop will help, but 10 million is really a high number, 

Again keep in mind the peak of the PS3 was like 14 million.  So you expect that in 2014 the PS3s sales will be about 70% of its peak?  Don't think so.

FY 2015- 134k per week.  This is still insanely high.  This is about what the 3DS and PS3 are doing right now.  Of course, you could argue that holiday boosts affect things, but the holiday boost for PS3 in 2015 is not going to be as noticeable as the bumbs PS3 and 3DS will get this year. 

FY 2016- 96K  You still have PS3 sales at about 96K per weak.

FY 2017- 38K per week.  These numbers are pretty high for a console that's going to be by that point 4 years out of date. 

You're predicting 138 k weekly sales for 5 years.  THIS WEEK the PS3 didn't even sell 138 K.  No, this is not plausible in my mind.

Lifetime sales will be higher or close to 100m.

The point is the shipped sales <> VGC sales.

VGC shows PS3 32% down in 2012 but it is wrong because all the sources shows ~15% drop and not 30%... 360 is undertracked too... Nintendo chartz, GFK, NPD, etc showed that.

In fact I think because the wrong sales posted by VGC last year... this year sales was undertracked too... even in US the first NPD showed a huge mistake in VGC data.

The drop YoY is a lot less than what VGC shows today.

Hmm I didn't mean max, though I did write that. Lapse in concentration. I think something like 85-95mil seems the way-to-go really, closer to 95 than 85 however. 

Sales can really dry up really quick. How long has it taken Wii to get to 100mil from 90, for example?

but to be honest, in 2020, people won't question anything because outside of a few gaming forums, even most gamers don't care about sales numbers. i am sure not many who i know in real life have even a clue about sales numbers of ps3/360/wii  not to talk about those total sales in some years.

ask people about ps2 and you will be lucky to find someone who will say a correct number and that is the best selling console of all time.

it's fun to talk about sales numbers with other people in gaming forums but in reality it makes not much sense^^ in real life people look at the financials if they have invested money in those companies or they care about their experience with the consoles they have/had but not about 100m or 130m consoles or if one console sold more as another one.

I'm pretty sure the press and companies will use the PS3 like the winner in this generation... and the world know the PS2 is the best selling console of all the time even my mum.

cool so people know which the best selling console of all time is because they read that once in their newspaper? (btw i think most people i know don't know that and could maybe say wii instead of ps2 if i ask them). and how exactly does that help or how is that important? everyone who owns a console right now will remember much more in 2020 what their experience was and those who didn't have a console this gen won't buy a ps4 (or ps5 then) because ps3 sold more as wii lol.

and the real winner is nintendo, if the press will use sales numbers or not, we all know that makes no sense to call a product the winner if another product made billions of profit.

Even if the drop is at 15% now, it's likely to be much larger overall in the year.  GOW Ascension and LOU will give a nice boost, but the holiday season will be much weaker with at least one new console, possibly 2, and a likely stronger Wii U sales.

Regardless of how off the VGC numbers are, you're still predicting that the PS3 will sell an average of 138 K over 5 years.  You're also predictiong another 34 million in sales, which is, if we go buy the 77 million figure, just about 44% of what the PS3 has sold to date. Those numbers are not likely.

You're not dropping off quick enough and it will be discontinued in 2015. PS3 is not a nimble cheap system combined with crazy game exclusivity and 75% marketshare like the PS2.

FY2012 77m (~12m shipped)
FY2013 86m (~9m - its holiday will be hammered with crazy competition from all next-gen)
FY2014 91m (~5m)
FY2015 94m (~3m) *discontinued

I've said it before, probably in your prediction thread, but PS3 won't hit 100m. (neither will X360)

http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php?reg=Global&start_year=2012&end_year=2013&console=PS3

Its already selling at a massive drop in YOY and that's only going to increase now that PS4 is out and even more so once NXBox is shown.

Nah, at this rate, the 360 is going to be the best 3rd place system.