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Forums - Sales Discussion - Stranger than fiction: Is PS3 about to win the console sales war?

Cheebee on 05 March 2013
crissindahouse said:

...

and the real winner is nintendo, if the press will use sales numbers or not, we all know that makes no sense to call a product the winner if another product made billions of profit.

Silly you, pretending profits actually matter and as if anyone anywhere even cares about financial success at all.



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JWeinCom on 05 March 2013
pezus said:
JWeinCom said:
At the current rate that its selling, it will take the PS3 3.4 years to catch up to the Wii. This is assuming not a single Wii is sold. But, if the Wii keeps selling at its current rate, it will add about 4,000,000 to its total. So, if both systems continue to sell at the current rate, it will take the PS4 about 4 years.

Of course the systems will not continue to sell at the current rates. PS3 will probably dip more than the Wii, because the Wii simply doesn't have very far to drop. If Wii sales drop to zero and PS3 sales average 80,000, it will take 5 years for the PS3 to catch the Wii. If it averages 50,000 per week, it will take 8.8 years to catch the Wii.

So... I don't really see that happening. The PS3 isn't going to have as long of a post PS4 life as the PS2 did post PS3. The PS2 basically had no opposition. The X-Box and Gamecube were essentially dead once the next generation of consoles arrives. The Wii and X-Box 360 still have some decent life left in them.

Let's at least be fair here. PS3 to average 4m per year? When it's going to easily double that and more this single year? It should average at least 5m over the next 4 years (9.5m, 6m, 3.5m, 2m => 5.25m average). That's 100k per week on average, and keep in mind that holiday sales and price cuts are included here. This would put PS3 at 96-97m or so by the end of 2016. 

Now, let's face it, Wii isn't going to sell 4m more units. It will be lucky to sell 3m more. Using your formula, it would take 174 weeks for it to sell 4m more units at its current rate. Since we know it won't sell close to its current rate on average for the next year, I will say 3m max.

Edit: This would put the totals at around 102.5-103m for Wii and 96-97m for PS3. It's certainly not out of the question that Sony stimulate PS3 sales a bit more to enable them first place.


The PS3 is definitely going to sell more than 8 million this year, but that's going to drop significantly over the course of 4 years.  You're talking about holiday spikes, but the holiday spike will be weaker this year than it was last year, and weaker still the next.  I don't think 6 million is happening next year.  That'd still be 115K average for the year.  The only way I see that happening is if the Wii U stays really weak, and the X-Box 720 and PS4 really struggle.  I think something like 5 million would be more realistic.

You're also predicting 3 million sales for the Wii.  That's not completely out of the question, but I think it will be a bit more.  It sold  5,000,000 last year.  If we assume an 70% drop, which is what it looks like so far this year based on sales trends, that's still 1.5 million. An average of 500K over the next 4 years seems a bit right. Which would be like 3.5 million.  I think it could reach 4 million or possibly even more. 

Anyway, the numbers you posted could happen.  I think they're unlikely,k but still within the realm of possibility.  Basically you're postulating about the max for the PS3 and the minimum for the Wii.  Even so there is a sizeable gap.I think squeezing an extra 6 million from the PS3 is pretty unlikely, and I think the Wii could do a bit more.  At any rate, the PS3 won't be beating the Wii unless something truly bizarre happens.



sergiodaly on 05 March 2013

Sony need to reach the 150$ price tag fast... this year if possible... it will eat some of the PS4 sales but PS4 will have millions of early adopters and lots of time to go after the more "cheap bastards"... PS3 could for sure, @150$ and 120$+games BF deals this year, reach 100 + millions life time sales...

this prices and strategy only doable for the 12Gb SKU that still hasn't launch in NA...

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MARCUSDJACKSON on 05 March 2013

likely! PS3 will pass the 100m unit mark, and likely pass/equal PS1 when sony decides to discontinue the system.



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ethomaz on 05 March 2013
superchunk said:

You're not dropping off quick enough and it will be discontinued in 2015. PS3 is not a nimble cheap system combined with crazy game exclusivity and 75% marketshare like the PS2.

FY2012 77m (~12m shipped)
FY2013 86m (~9m - its holiday will be hammered with crazy competition from all next-gen)
FY2014 91m (~5m)
FY2015 94m (~3m) *discontinued

I've said it before, probably in your prediction thread, but PS3 won't hit 100m. (neither will X360)

http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php?reg=Global&start_year=2012&end_year=2013&console=PS3

Its already selling at a massive drop in YOY and that's only going to increase now that PS4 is out and even more so once NXBox is shown.

Your last sentence just make my predictions possible.... there is no massive drop YOY... the PS3 in Europe have a 10% drop only and in US the drop is below 20% too... these 30% drop YOY is not accurate.

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JWeinCom on 05 March 2013
ethomaz said:
superchunk said:

You're not dropping off quick enough and it will be discontinued in 2015. PS3 is not a nimble cheap system combined with crazy game exclusivity and 75% marketshare like the PS2.

FY2012 77m (~12m shipped)
FY2013 86m (~9m - its holiday will be hammered with crazy competition from all next-gen)
FY2014 91m (~5m)
FY2015 94m (~3m) *discontinued

I've said it before, probably in your prediction thread, but PS3 won't hit 100m. (neither will X360)

http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php?reg=Global&start_year=2012&end_year=2013&console=PS3

Its already selling at a massive drop in YOY and that's only going to increase now that PS4 is out and even more so once NXBox is shown.
Your last sentence just make my predictions possible.... there is no massive drop YOY... the PS3 in Europe have a 10% drop only and in US the drop is below 20% too... these 30% drop YOY is not accurate.


Where are your figures coming from?



superchunk on 05 March 2013
ethomaz said:
Your last sentence just make my predictions possible.... there is no massive drop YOY... the PS3 in Europe have a 10% drop only and in US the drop is below 20% too... these 30% drop YOY is not accurate.

Did you actually click the link?

January showed a 26% drop alone. By E3 the PS3 will be closer to 40% drop YOY and that will not improve with the holidays.

EDIT: BTW you're not the first to make that prediction... LeoJ made this prediction years ago.



ZaneWane on 05 March 2013

playstation 3 is last and will need more than 25 million to pass nintendo wii

ethomaz on 05 March 2013
JWeinCom said:


Where are your figures coming from?

NPD, Nintendo chartz, GFK, etc... the official tracking system in the world... both console are undertracked in Europe for 2012 (~400k each)... VGC now shows over 2 million on shelves for 360 and close 3 million on shelves for PS3.

Jaywood2010 on 05 March 2013

Depends on how you look at it. Now im not positive but the PS3 has shipped more consoles than the X360 but the X360 has sold more in stores. X360 won america and UK I believe. Where as sony dominated Japan. Sony also has a big lead in the other countries that is not listed. It all comes down to what region and if you are considering shipped vs sold. Let's be honest. East doesnt care about West, and vice versa, so that is a completely different story.