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JWeinCom on 05 March 2013
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pezus said:
JWeinCom said:
At the current rate that its selling, it will take the PS3 3.4 years to catch up to the Wii. This is assuming not a single Wii is sold. But, if the Wii keeps selling at its current rate, it will add about 4,000,000 to its total. So, if both systems continue to sell at the current rate, it will take the PS4 about 4 years.

Of course the systems will not continue to sell at the current rates. PS3 will probably dip more than the Wii, because the Wii simply doesn't have very far to drop. If Wii sales drop to zero and PS3 sales average 80,000, it will take 5 years for the PS3 to catch the Wii. If it averages 50,000 per week, it will take 8.8 years to catch the Wii.

So... I don't really see that happening. The PS3 isn't going to have as long of a post PS4 life as the PS2 did post PS3. The PS2 basically had no opposition. The X-Box and Gamecube were essentially dead once the next generation of consoles arrives. The Wii and X-Box 360 still have some decent life left in them.

Let's at least be fair here. PS3 to average 4m per year? When it's going to easily double that and more this single year? It should average at least 5m over the next 4 years (9.5m, 6m, 3.5m, 2m => 5.25m average). That's 100k per week on average, and keep in mind that holiday sales and price cuts are included here. This would put PS3 at 96-97m or so by the end of 2016. 

Now, let's face it, Wii isn't going to sell 4m more units. It will be lucky to sell 3m more. Using your formula, it would take 174 weeks for it to sell 4m more units at its current rate. Since we know it won't sell close to its current rate on average for the next year, I will say 3m max.

Edit: This would put the totals at around 102.5-103m for Wii and 96-97m for PS3. It's certainly not out of the question that Sony stimulate PS3 sales a bit more to enable them first place.


The PS3 is definitely going to sell more than 8 million this year, but that's going to drop significantly over the course of 4 years.  You're talking about holiday spikes, but the holiday spike will be weaker this year than it was last year, and weaker still the next.  I don't think 6 million is happening next year.  That'd still be 115K average for the year.  The only way I see that happening is if the Wii U stays really weak, and the X-Box 720 and PS4 really struggle.  I think something like 5 million would be more realistic.

You're also predicting 3 million sales for the Wii.  That's not completely out of the question, but I think it will be a bit more.  It sold  5,000,000 last year.  If we assume an 70% drop, which is what it looks like so far this year based on sales trends, that's still 1.5 million. An average of 500K over the next 4 years seems a bit right. Which would be like 3.5 million.  I think it could reach 4 million or possibly even more. 

Anyway, the numbers you posted could happen.  I think they're unlikely,k but still within the realm of possibility.  Basically you're postulating about the max for the PS3 and the minimum for the Wii.  Even so there is a sizeable gap.I think squeezing an extra 6 million from the PS3 is pretty unlikely, and I think the Wii could do a bit more.  At any rate, the PS3 won't be beating the Wii unless something truly bizarre happens.