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JWeinCom on 05 March 2013
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ethomaz said:
JWeinCom said:
At the current rate that its selling, it will take the PS3 3.4 years to catch up to the Wii. This is assuming not a single Wii is sold. But, if the Wii keeps selling at its current rate, it will add about 4,000,000 to its total. So, if both systems continue to sell at the current rate, it will take the PS4 about 4 years.

Of course the systems will not continue to sell at the current rates. PS3 will probably dip more than the Wii, because the Wii simply doesn't have very far to drop. If Wii sales drop to zero and PS3 sales average 80,000, it will take 5 years for the PS3 to catch the Wii. If it averages 50,000 per week, it will take 8.8 years to catch the Wii.

So... I don't really see that happening. The PS3 isn't going to have as long of a post PS4 life as the PS2 did post PS3. The PS2 basically had no opposition. The X-Box and Gamecube were essentially dead once the next generation of consoles arrives. The Wii and X-Box 360 still have some decent life left in them.
Well...

FY2012: 77 million
FY2013: 89 million (12 million shipped)
FY2014: 99 million (10 million shipped)
FY2015: 106 million (7 million shipped)
FY2016: 111 million (5 million shipped)
FY2017: 113 million (2 million shipped)

Is that too hard? You can remove 1 million per year if you think I'm optimistic... 108 million shipped... I can't see Wii topping that.

Lets break that down into weekly sales which I find a bit easier to deal with.


FY2013- 230 K a week.  I don't think this is very likely, unless the PS4 has a very weak launch.

BTW according to VGChartz Data, the PS3 sold 11.2 million in 2012.  To date, the PS3 is 32% down YOY.  Why do you expect it to be so close 20 2012 sales whether we're talking about FY or just plain old Jan-December years.

FY2014-  193,207 k a week-  With the X-Box 720, PS4 on the market, the Wii U picking up, and a presumable shortage of content, I don't see this happening.  A big price drop will help, but 10 million is really a high number, 

Again keep in mind the peak of the PS3 was like 14 million.  So you expect that in 2014 the PS3s sales will be about 70% of its peak?  Don't think so.


FY 2015- 134k per week.  This is still insanely high.  This is about what the 3DS and PS3 are doing right now.  Of course, you could argue that holiday boosts affect things, but the holiday boost for PS3 in 2015 is not going to be as noticeable as the bumbs PS3 and 3DS will get this year. 

FY 2016- 96K  You still have PS3 sales at about 96K per weak.

FY 2017- 38K per week.  These numbers are pretty high for a console that's going to be by that point 4 years out of date. 


You're predicting 138 k weekly sales for 5 years.  THIS WEEK the PS3 didn't even sell 138 K.  No, this is not plausible in my mind.