The bet was for the first 5 weeks. In that time WiiU sold nearly Wii numbers. And it was even adjusted up recently. It seems possible. If you include the recent track-record of Sony, to release in one or two regions later it makes it even more possible for me to win. We will see, but so far I'm not overly concerned to lose.

Oh wait. So the 1st 5 weeks upon release anywhere and not 1st 5 weeks upon when it is available in all regions?

I don't think Wii Fit U will be anywhere near as big, in sales (naturally) or attach rate as the two previous ones. When you can purchase workout apps for your phones and tablets for a couple of bucks, few will want to shell out 100$ for the balance board and game, not to mention you have to own the console to begin with, which very few people do and will do in the near future.
The ones who are the most likely customers when young folks are discounted are the adult/middle-aged segment, but they have little incentive to purchase consoles and are more easily swayed by TV shop products and other crap, are more likely to buy a gym membership (that they won't use) and might also very well end up using workout apps on phones and tablets.

The thing is; casuals won't be buying loads of home consoles or handhelds any longer, the market has moved away from the living room and gone out and about, your phone/tablet is like your wallet; always with you.

There is nothing Nintendo can do at this point to entice hordes of casuals like they did with the Wii, the Wii U lacks the pure appeal of the last machine and the biggest mistake in gaming for the past five years is Nintendo's Gamepad. They should have stuck with the Wii-mote, allthough I believe the market would have disappeared anyway.

The "Casuals" didn't leave Nintendo. Nintendo left the "casuals"

There is no doubt Nintendo is doing a terrible job marketing the Wii U. It was also a huge mistake to not include Nintendoland with every console.

Yes for the moment, but they will come back when the price drops and as soon as NFC/figures capabilities turn into retail games.

Nintendo Land is more of a Mario Party than a Wii Sports.

They should have bundled the 2D Mario, and developed a new sports game on the double.

Yes.

This.

WHAT????
What really happens here is that Wii is such a great machine, that they dont feel they need WiiU because theyre not graphic whores....theyll jump to WiiU eventually (most of them), and Nintendo knows that.