It's possible if what we know is coming out for the Wii U is all that comes out (in terms of the bigger games).
However, I think it's unlikely. I am assuming that there will be games revealed at e3 that will be released this year for the Wii U.

I don't think the price cut materially improves Vita's situation. The $199 is still not with memory card; similar deals were already available over Christmas to no real effect; and there's still no sustaining games on the horizon. I'm thinking one week small bump, but no lasting effect.

Wii U can't drop another 40% in the US, it's not possible.

I think in the next few weeks Vita will start selling more, but when WiiU's big hitters start coming they will obliterate Vita.

we will see some weeks where vita outsells the wiiu, but over the year? no way. wiiu gets some good games i think, it will go up then.

Will it get a boost?

Yes

Will a Japan only boost be enough?

Maybe

Will it last?

Unless we see a similar drop outside Japan soon, probably not.....

It depends on the games. As far as I can remeber, I think nintendo stated that they would have mario kart or 3d mario out on wii u this Christmas, and that they have an nfc game coming out in the holiday, and if that game is pokemon, then I'm pretty certain that wii u will beat vita this year.

If the price cut is worldwide, it will probably boost the total weekly sales to around 50,000 per week. However, the holidays will probably push the Wii U sales higher with many more games coming out for it.

If the wii u is just loosing slightly to the vita in the first half of the year, then it will be more than enough, even though it is in the later part of the year.

Well, the Vita will likely slide in sales for the next couple weeks until the price cut hits, and then that will likely send it up to 65k or so a week for a couple weeks, before coming back down to around 40k. So around the same as the Wii U, some weeks the Vita ahead and some the Wii U, depending on releases.

However, come the holidays, Mario Kart, 3D Mario, Zelda and most likely a price cut, the Vita has no chance. It will be lucky to sell within 1 mil of the Wii U for the year.

I imagine around 6-8mil for Wii U, and 4-6mil for Vita come the end of the year.

Well, no offence to this OP, but I really didn't see this OP is relative. Why not compare PSV with 3DS? Both are handheld systems and both strugged in sales in the beginning and both got price drop.

If Vita cannot outsell 3DS after the price drop, what can save Vita and what else can help Vita to catch up 3DS?

I like my Vita and hope it can win the competition.