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Forums - Sales - Will Animal Crossing face the same fate as Nintendogs or Brain Training?

Otakumegane on 13 January 2013
NintendoPie said:
Otakumegane said:
NintendoPie said:
Otakumegane said:


wait so from release to the end of Dec?

Yes. You did say in your original post "1st year."


Alright. Welp I'll prob lose this one.

You're locked in it now!

(You might have hope, though. WW, according to VGC, only sold 400k in it's first year on NA Market.)

Edit: If you want to back out you can. I was just kidding.


Nope I'll stick by it.



http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/profile/92109/nintendopie/ Nintendopie  Was obviously right and I was obviously wrong. I will forever be a lesser being than them. (6/16/13)

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DanneSandin on 13 January 2013

This bet of yours... is it for NA only, or ww or EU+NA?



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

Aielyn on 13 January 2013
Otakumegane said:
NintendoPie said:
Otakumegane said:

It will do decently, I'm sure. The problem is will there be a loss in sold units like the other 2 once huge "casual" titles. I don't see it reaching 2mil numbers like the last one.

I think New Leaf should be able to get 1.5 to 2.0 Million sales in America. Again, based on marketing.

How was Nintendogs marketed? 1.5 to 2mil is a little high, I'd say 1.2 mil max.

Based on what? What is your justification, your reasoning, for your prediction of Animal Crossing: New Leaf selling no more than 1.2 million copies in America? And don't throw words like "casual" at me, that's not justification, that's hardcore elitism. I want solid reasoning.



sethnintendo on 13 January 2013
Otakumegane said:
NintendoPie said:
Otakumegane said:


Then do you honestly expect Nintendo to take a risk and market this in a pre-dominant male gaming audience for 3DS? I'm just really afraid that if this title doesn't do well then Nintendo might go "well guess there's  no market here for Japan games after all! Cancel all localizations!"

Yes, I expect Nintendo to market this game. They can't just throw it out there and expect it do perform amazingly.


Wanna bet on 1st year sales of AC in NA? I say no more than 550-600k

There are at least 700k AC fans in NA that will buy the game the first year.  You wanted reasons why this will do better than WW?  How about the biggest change to the series since the start (being the mayor now and ability to plot out how the town is built more). 

DS NA launch - Nov 2004

Animal Crossing: Wild World - released Nov 2005

DS Lite NA launch - June 2006 (when DS sales exploded)

 

3DS NA launch - March 2011

3DS XL NA launch - August 2012

Animal Crossing: New Leaf NA launch - Late Q1 2013

There are more 3DS owners in NA when New Leaf launches than there was when Wild World launched.



Spazzy_D on 13 January 2013

About 35% of my street pass hits are female gamers, so take that for what it's worth. I live in America, by the way.



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Otakumegane on 13 January 2013
Aielyn said:
Otakumegane said:
NintendoPie said:
Otakumegane said:

It will do decently, I'm sure. The problem is will there be a loss in sold units like the other 2 once huge "casual" titles. I don't see it reaching 2mil numbers like the last one.

I think New Leaf should be able to get 1.5 to 2.0 Million sales in America. Again, based on marketing.

How was Nintendogs marketed? 1.5 to 2mil is a little high, I'd say 1.2 mil max.

Based on what? What is your justification, your reasoning, for your prediction of Animal Crossing: New Leaf selling no more than 1.2 million copies in America? And don't throw words like "casual" at me, that's not justification, that's hardcore elitism. I want solid reasoning.


My reasoning? Ok.

1.The sharp decline of other titles aimed at the 3DS female base. (Nintendogs, Brain Age isnt out yet, but I don't think it'll do anywhere near the original numbers.) Oh uhh Style Savvy?

2. The purchase of NL by mostly JP females, who make up 31% of all 3ds owners. The female base of NA should be lower, like way lower. I have not seen 31% install bases here.

3.Marketing, marketing, marketing. If Nintendo can market this well, it'll sell well. Considering the need for some better WiiU marketing and more focus in that are for the upcoming months, I doubt we'll see many commercials for an AC game.



http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/profile/92109/nintendopie/ Nintendopie  Was obviously right and I was obviously wrong. I will forever be a lesser being than them. (6/16/13)

Kresnik on 13 January 2013
NintendoPie said:
No. Animal Crossing should hold it's own in North America.
Animal Crossing: New Leaf (according to VGC, which really isn't that great) already has quite a bit of Pre-Orders. If Nintendo manage to pull together a good Ad for this game then I think it should be able to at least sell around what City Folk did.

Europe is a different story. I'm not sure how well it'll take off there, but I'm hoping for the best.


I know this is getting a little bit off-topic, but just about the bold:

Persona 4 Golden had 105k pre-orders according to the tracking here.  FW sales when it released were 90k, so the tracking was slightly off.  After NPD, VGChartz adjusted the FW number down to 50k, so they were absolutely miles off.  It was after that happened that I pretty much lost faith in the tracking for pre-orders here.  They make a decent effort, but I really wouldn't trust those numbers for anything.

 

OT: Animal Crossing has been a Nintendo franchise since the N64, far longer than Nintendogs or Brain Training.  I agree with the idea that I think sales will fall in the west - I believe they will too.  Nowhere near as dramatically as Brain Training or Nintendogs, though.  Those were phenomenoms, I think AC will hold its own as a "core franchise".  



Find my website here

Otakumegane on 13 January 2013
DanneSandin said:
This bet of yours... is it for NA only, or ww or EU+NA?


Na only



http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/profile/92109/nintendopie/ Nintendopie  Was obviously right and I was obviously wrong. I will forever be a lesser being than them. (6/16/13)

Otakumegane on 13 January 2013
Spazzy_D said:
About 35% of my street pass hits are female gamers, so take that for what it's worth. I live in America, by the way.

Wow, really? That's amazing! I get only 15% max at the mall.



http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/profile/92109/nintendopie/ Nintendopie  Was obviously right and I was obviously wrong. I will forever be a lesser being than them. (6/16/13)

Otakumegane on 13 January 2013
sethnintendo said:
Otakumegane said:
NintendoPie said:
Otakumegane said:


Then do you honestly expect Nintendo to take a risk and market this in a pre-dominant male gaming audience for 3DS? I'm just really afraid that if this title doesn't do well then Nintendo might go "well guess there's  no market here for Japan games after all! Cancel all localizations!"

Yes, I expect Nintendo to market this game. They can't just throw it out there and expect it do perform amazingly.


Wanna bet on 1st year sales of AC in NA? I say no more than 550-600k

There are at least 700k AC fans in NA that will buy the game the first year.  You wanted reasons why this will do better than WW?  How about the biggest change to the series since the start (being the mayor now and ability to plot out how the town is built more). 

DS NA launch - Nov 2004

Animal Crossing: Wild World - released Nov 2005

DS Lite NA launch - June 2006 (when DS sales exploded)

 

3DS NA launch - March 2011

3DS XL NA launch - August 2012

Animal Crossing: A New Leaf NA launch - Late Q1 2013

Trust me there is nothing that I hope more than this title doing well, I love AC's inncocence.

Wasn't it Q2?

What about other factors like Pokemon being released and people deciding to buy that instead of AC over the holidays?



http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/profile/92109/nintendopie/ Nintendopie  Was obviously right and I was obviously wrong. I will forever be a lesser being than them. (6/16/13)