Will Animal Crossing face the same fate as Nintendogs or Brain Training?

[Aielyn]

Otakumegane said:

NintendoPie said:

Otakumegane said:

It will do decently, I'm sure. The problem is will there be a loss in sold units like the other 2 once huge "casual" titles. I don't see it reaching 2mil numbers like the last one.

I think New Leaf should be able to get 1.5 to 2.0 Million sales in America. Again, based on marketing.

How was Nintendogs marketed? 1.5 to 2mil is a little high, I'd say 1.2 mil max.

Based on what? What is your justification, your reasoning, for your prediction of Animal Crossing: New Leaf selling no more than 1.2 million copies in America? And don't throw words like "casual" at me, that's not justification, that's hardcore elitism. I want solid reasoning.