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Forums - Sales Discussion - metal gear solid 4 predictions

lol... alrighty then... I support sony, but clearly, you have unrealistic expectations of the game. I think it will do a million day one across three regions, or at least in the first week.



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I'm predicting in the 4 million range.

I think MGS3 was better recieved by the public, from what I can tell, than MGS2 was, and the graphical upgrade may draw people in. The game is also one of THE defining games of the PS3 this generation, while MGS was one of a larger number of major games.

On the other side, MGS saw a steep drop off after the previous iteration, and it's now on a system with a dramatically smaller user base.

I think these effects will essentially cancel each other out, and the game will hit around what MGS3 did.



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DMeisterJ said:
lol... alrighty then... I support sony, but clearly, you have unrealistic expectations of the game. I think it will do a million day one across three regions, or at least in the first week.

 

yea thats what i ment, didnt i make that clear?

i agree with some of ur prediction. =)
not all of it though



This has to be a joke post



Leo-j said: If a dvd for a pc game holds what? Crysis at 3000p or something, why in the world cant a blu-ray disc do the same?

ssj12 said: Player specific decoders are nothing more than specialized GPUs. Gran Turismo is the trust driving simulator of them all. 

"Why do they call it the xbox 360? Because when you see it, you'll turn 360 degrees and walk away" 

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Sorry. Not going to happen. I predict that it will be an excellent game, but due to the small PS3 userbase, it won't sell even close to as well as its predecessors.
It probably won't be number one more than 2 weeks, since it is pretty frontloaded.
Also, I highly doubt that it will have a huge impact on hardware. The numbers you offered are obscenely high. PS3 sold around 1.85 million units between December 2 and January 6. Are you seriously suggesting that one game is going to cause it to sell greater than 2 million?! That is simply riddiculous.
You also seem to think that the majority of people care that it is the last Metal Gear Solid.
It will NOT sell better than 1-3. MGS 3 sold LESS than MGS 2, despite debuting with a much larger userbase. MGS 2 launched at 15.5 million userbase, much larger than the 9.22 million userbase the PS3 has now, which won't grow to be that size by the time Metal Gear Solid launches.




tokilamockingbrd said:
welcome, not bad for a first prediction.

MGS is a very frontloaded game so you could be right, first days sales are guarenteed for day 1... legs depend more on reviews for the game.

 I l ike you console predictions in your sig, i think there dead on except for the wii. i think it will do less than that, for it to do what you predict it would have to sell more than 2million a month and i dont see that happening since the  holidays  are over. i see it doing a million and under in some months, i think it will be at 33million at the end of 08. but your ps3 and 360 prediction's are spot on. (IMHO)



Hi new user welcome to vgchartz.

Also, I say 500-700k.



 

 2008 end of year predictions:

PS3: 22M

360: 25M

wii: 40M

ikilledkenny said:
Sorry. Not going to happen. I predict that it will be an excellent game, but due to the small PS3 userbase, it won't sell even close to as well as its predecessors.
It probably won't be number one more than 2 weeks, since it is pretty frontloaded.
Also, I highly doubt that it will have a huge impact on hardware. The numbers you offered are obscenely high. PS3 sold around 1.85 million units between December 2 and January 6. Are you seriously suggesting that one game is going to cause it to sell greater than 2 million?! That is simply riddiculous.
You also seem to think that the majority of people care that it is the last Metal Gear Solid.
It will NOT sell better than 1-3. MGS 3 sold LESS than MGS 2, despite debuting with a much larger userbase. MGS 2 launched at 15.5 million userbase, much larger than the 9.22 million userbase the PS3 has now, which won't grow to be that size by the time Metal Gear Solid launches.

 

but you guys are not understanding me, since the ps3 lacks a TRUE AAA game this is going to be the one thats everybody has been waiting for, thus people buying a ps3 just for this game. i already know a bunch of people who said there getting a ps3 JUST  for this game. thats why i said the attach rate will also be 100% .................. think people,  think.

saprano1 said:
ikilledkenny said:
Sorry. Not going to happen. I predict that it will be an excellent game, but due to the small PS3 userbase, it won't sell even close to as well as its predecessors.
It probably won't be number one more than 2 weeks, since it is pretty frontloaded.
Also, I highly doubt that it will have a huge impact on hardware. The numbers you offered are obscenely high. PS3 sold around 1.85 million units between December 2 and January 6. Are you seriously suggesting that one game is going to cause it to sell greater than 2 million?! That is simply riddiculous.
You also seem to think that the majority of people care that it is the last Metal Gear Solid.
It will NOT sell better than 1-3. MGS 3 sold LESS than MGS 2, despite debuting with a much larger userbase. MGS 2 launched at 15.5 million userbase, much larger than the 9.22 million userbase the PS3 has now, which won't grow to be that size by the time Metal Gear Solid launches.

 

but you guys are not understanding me, since the ps3 lacks a TRUE AAA game this is going to be the one thats everybody has been waiting for, thus people buying a ps3 just for this game. i already know a bunch of people who said there getting a ps3 JUST for this game. thats why i said the attach rate will also be 100% .................. think people, think.

 PS3 doesn't lack AAA games (at least not considering how long the console has been in the market), we have R:FoM, R&C, CoD4, AC and Uncharted. What it lacks is a RECONGIZABLE AAA games that will get people to say "Oh, I've played the last game on PS2 and I really liked it, so I will buy this one".

 

Xbox has its Halo series and Nintendo already had 3, (Mario, Zelda and MP), Until Sony has one, we don't know how will hardware will sell from a push of an AAA games. 



Soriku (Feb 10/08): In 5 years the PS3/360 will be dead.

KH3 bet: "If KH3 comes to Wii exclusive, I will take a 1 month of sig/avatar by otheres open a thread apologize and praise you guys' brilliance." http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=50&id=18379
Original cast: Badonkadonkhr, sc94597 allaboutthegames885, kingofwale, Soriku, ctk495, skeezer, RDBRaptor, Mirson,

Episode 1: OOPSY!
selnor
: Too Human I even expect 3-4 mill entire life and 500,000 first day. GoW2 ( expect 7 - 9 million entire life and over 2 mill first day), Fable 2 (expect 5-6 million entire life and 1.5 mill fist day) BK3 (expect 4 - 5 mill sales entire life and 1 mill first day).. Tales/IU/TLR should get to 2 or 3 million! post id: 868878
Episode 2:
Letsdance: FFXIII (PS3+360) first week in NA = 286K
According to pre-order rate in week 13 (post id: 2902544)