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Forums - Sales Discussion - metal gear solid 4 predictions

dannyphantom105 on 20 January 2008
saprano1 said:
ikilledkenny said:
Sorry. Not going to happen. I predict that it will be an excellent game, but due to the small PS3 userbase, it won't sell even close to as well as its predecessors.
It probably won't be number one more than 2 weeks, since it is pretty frontloaded.
Also, I highly doubt that it will have a huge impact on hardware. The numbers you offered are obscenely high. PS3 sold around 1.85 million units between December 2 and January 6. Are you seriously suggesting that one game is going to cause it to sell greater than 2 million?! That is simply riddiculous.
You also seem to think that the majority of people care that it is the last Metal Gear Solid.
It will NOT sell better than 1-3. MGS 3 sold LESS than MGS 2, despite debuting with a much larger userbase. MGS 2 launched at 15.5 million userbase, much larger than the 9.22 million userbase the PS3 has now, which won't grow to be that size by the time Metal Gear Solid launches.

 

but you guys are not understanding me, since the ps3 lacks a TRUE AAA game this is going to be the one thats everybody has been waiting for, thus people buying a ps3 just for this game. i already know a bunch of people who said there getting a ps3 JUST  for this game. thats why i said the attach rate will also be 100% .................. think people,  think.

 we understand you perfectly, but there is literally no way there will be 100%. Yea it will be an awesome game, and will most likely sell millions of copies.

but no game in history has had a 100% attach rate. 

that would mean that every single person who bought a ps3 that week would have bought mgs4.

what about younger kids who can't play M rated games? or casual gamers who bought it for other reasons?

 i agree it will sell well and may even become the ps3s best selling game, but idk about some of your predictions.

welcome to vgcharts by the way. 

 



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ikilledkenny on 20 January 2008

But the people you know that will buy this game are hardcore gamers...the majority of the market is not them. Also, I repeat that it is ludicrous to expect the PS3 to do better than it did in December, any console's best month, no matter how good the game is. Your predictions are FAR too optimistic. You are predicting it to be more successful than the rest of the series, and to be the only game people buy it for. It's not Halo 3, Super Smash Brothers Brawl, or Final Fantasy XIII. One game is not enough to push a system, unless it is one of those. It also costs far more than it did to buy previous MGS games. The PS3+MGS4 is at least $460, while a PS@+MGS2 was $350. Besides, there are hardly any casual PS3 owners, and this is a hardcore game. How many hardcore gamers are left that haven't bought a PS3 that are willing to do so just for MGS4, when the 360 is much cheaper and has far more/better games.

By the way, on your sig...the console with the most going for it is the Wii (unless you mean graphics, which don't matter that much to many people), and it has lots of AAA games as well (Super Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime 3: Corruption, Super Smash Brothers Brawl, Mario Kart Wii, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess, Monster Hunter 3, the list goes on and on). Plus, its appeal is long-lasting...I haven't been bored yet.


SlorgNet on 20 January 2008
ikilledkenny said:
The PS3+MGS4 is at least $460, while a PS@+MGS2 was $350. Besides, there are hardly any casual PS3 owners, and this is a hardcore game. How many hardcore gamers are left that haven't bought a PS3 that are willing to do so just for MGS4, when the 360 is much cheaper and has far more/better games.


 But inflation is 3% a year, which means that $350 in 2001 dollars is mighty close to $460 in 2008 dollars.

And the notion that the 360 is much cheaper and has better games won't fly. The PS3 costs $50 more but gives you a bigger hard-drive, built-in BluRay storage and playback, rocksolid reliability and a free online gaming service. The 360 had a year head start, so of course it had a bigger library - but that changes in 2008. MGS4 is just the beginning of the tidal wave.



ikilledkenny on 20 January 2008
SlorgNet said:

 But inflation is 3% a year, which means that $350 in 2001 dollars is mighty close to $460 in 2008 dollars.

And the notion that the 360 is much cheaper and has better games won't fly. The PS3 costs $50 more but gives you a bigger hard-drive, built-in BluRay storage and playback, rocksolid reliability and a free online gaming service. The 360 had a year head start, so of course it had a bigger library - but that changes in 2008. MGS4 is just the beginning of the tidal wave.


While you are correct that it is pretty close to 460 dollars in todays money (I calculated that it was around $430), many consumers still will say that number is far too high. Some people even think that $250 for a Wii+Wii Sports is too much. While I agree you get more features in the console for $50 more, many of those features are unneccesary. All my friends with a 360 never have complained about hard drive size, and BluRay is not considered essential right now, especially when you consider that to get its value you also need an HDTV. The online gaming service, though free, is not as good as Xbox Live. The only advantage that everyone would agree with is its reliability, which is much greater than 360.

And with the games...what makes you think that Nintendo and Microsoft won't put out games too? I for one am much more excited about the Wii lineup than the PS3's. Most of the big games PS3 will be getting, like GTA 4, are multiplatform, and Nintendo exclusives like SSBB and Mario Kart are much bigger than the majority of what PS3 has to offer. Sorry, but it will take far more than MGS to bring the PS3 to even second place.

Also, even if PS3 has AAA games, look at the N64. It had so many classics that sold very well, like Super Mario 64, Goldeneye, The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time, Mario Kart 64, and Starfox 64, yet not even these could bring it to the top, and it finished a distant second to the Playstation.


smgod2 on 20 January 2008
kingofwale said:
saprano1 said:
ikilledkenny said:
Sorry. Not going to happen. I predict that it will be an excellent game, but due to the small PS3 userbase, it won't sell even close to as well as its predecessors.
It probably won't be number one more than 2 weeks, since it is pretty frontloaded.
Also, I highly doubt that it will have a huge impact on hardware. The numbers you offered are obscenely high. PS3 sold around 1.85 million units between December 2 and January 6. Are you seriously suggesting that one game is going to cause it to sell greater than 2 million?! That is simply riddiculous.
You also seem to think that the majority of people care that it is the last Metal Gear Solid.
It will NOT sell better than 1-3. MGS 3 sold LESS than MGS 2, despite debuting with a much larger userbase. MGS 2 launched at 15.5 million userbase, much larger than the 9.22 million userbase the PS3 has now, which won't grow to be that size by the time Metal Gear Solid launches.

 

but you guys are not understanding me, since the ps3 lacks a TRUE AAA game this is going to be the one thats everybody has been waiting for, thus people buying a ps3 just for this game. i already know a bunch of people who said there getting a ps3 JUST for this game. thats why i said the attach rate will also be 100% .................. think people, think.

PS3 doesn't lack AAA games (at least not considering how long the console has been in the market), we have R:FoM, R&C, CoD4, AC and Uncharted. What it lacks is a RECONGIZABLE AAA games that will get people to say "Oh, I've played the last game on PS2 and I really liked it, so I will buy this one".

 

Xbox has its Halo series and Nintendo already had 3, (Mario, Zelda and MP), Until Sony has one, we don't know how will hardware will sell from a push of an AAA games.


 uh..sony does have some of those, mgs, final fantasy, god of war just to name a few.



end said: ps3 is already a failure, even if it goes to number 1 at the end of this generation.

NYANKS said: And please, if Nintendo can recover from the mind blowing pwnage dealt to it by Sony over the last ten years, I think Sony will be fine.

The Church of Freeman

All in all your just another brick in the wall.

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ikilledkenny on 20 January 2008

@smgod2:
MGS4 is not big enough to push the system, FFXIII and God of War will not come out this year. Gran Turismo might not even make it out this year, and even if it does, it will probably only be out in Japan.


RCTjunkie on 20 January 2008

My prediction: it will sell a lot. ;)



WHO IS JESUS REALLY?

kingofwale on 20 January 2008

> uh..sony does have some of those, mgs, final fantasy, god of war just to name a few.

Yeah, that's my point, Sony has TONS of fantastic franchises, and none of them are on PS3 yet. So we can't predict how well an AAA title will help with PS3's hardware sales.



Soriku (Feb 10/08): In 5 years the PS3/360 will be dead.

KH3 bet: "If KH3 comes to Wii exclusive, I will take a 1 month of sig/avatar by otheres open a thread apologize and praise you guys' brilliance." http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=50&id=18379
Original cast: Badonkadonkhr, sc94597 allaboutthegames885, kingofwale, Soriku, ctk495, skeezer, RDBRaptor, Mirson,

Episode 1: OOPSY!
selnor: Too Human I even expect 3-4 mill entire life and 500,000 first day. GoW2 ( expect 7 - 9 million entire life and over 2 mill first day), Fable 2 (expect 5-6 million entire life and 1.5 mill fist day) BK3 (expect 4 - 5 mill sales entire life and 1 mill first day).. Tales/IU/TLR should get to 2 or 3 million! post id: 868878
Episode 2:
Letsdance: FFXIII (PS3+360) first week in NA = 286K
According to pre-order rate in week 13 (post id: 2902544)
saprano1 on 21 January 2008
SlorgNet said:
ikilledkenny said:
The PS3+MGS4 is at least $460, while a PS@+MGS2 was $350. Besides, there are hardly any casual PS3 owners, and this is a hardcore game. How many hardcore gamers are left that haven't bought a PS3 that are willing to do so just for MGS4, when the 360 is much cheaper and has far more/better games.


 But inflation is 3% a year, which means that $350 in 2001 dollars is mighty close to $460 in 2008 dollars.

And the notion that the 360 is much cheaper and has better games won't fly. The PS3 costs $50 more but gives you a bigger hard-drive, built-in BluRay storage and playback, rocksolid reliability and a free online gaming service. The 360 had a year head start, so of course it had a bigger library - but that changes in 2008. MGS4 is just the beginning of the tidal wave.


THANK YOU!  somebody who understands. you people dont reliez how big mgs4 is gonna be......just wach.



ClaudeLv250 on 21 January 2008

....ROFFLE!

Someone please necro this thread when MGS4 is released.



Tag - "No trolling on my watch!"