only 40% i would say in minimum 100% increase.

Dreamcast launched November 27, 1998 in Japan. In America and Europe it was about a year later. It was discontinued at end of March 2001.

So it lived 122 weeks in Japan, 81 weeks in the US and 76 weeks in Europe. It sold 10.6 million units. If we take the longest lifetime (122 weeks) it averages at a little less than 87K a week. If we count the time it was out in Japan alone only as half (as only half the regions) it averages at 105K a week. That includes launch and holiday-boosts, it seems unfair to compare it directly with current sales of Vita.

But we can calculate the Vita-numbers the same way. VGC has the numbers of Vita until the week ending August 11 at 2,654,188. Vita launched in Japan at December 17, 2011. In NA and Europe it was February 22, 2012. That makes 34 weeks in Japan and 24 in the rest of the world. Using the full timescale we are at 78K weekly. Are we counting again the time it was out only in Japan only half it averages at 92K. This includes launch-boost, but no proper christmas-boost.

For fiscal year ending March2013, 10-12 mil sounds reasonable (it would after all be out for 15months by that time).  If it was to reach 8-9 mil by the end of the holiday season (dec2012) then it means there is still a chance and the gloom had passed.  But honestly, 4-6 mil worldwide sales even for the holiday season is quite pathetic and would indicate that the system is already dead. If rumours are to be believed the industry will be moving onmost support X720,PS4 and Wii U by Dec2013.

LOL...I'm totally with you on that one.  If it was another system selling 5.2mil units after 1 year of release; the gaming public would have announced it dead already.  Sales of 5-6mil by the holidays is very dismal indeed.

Because the Vita isn't officially dead until Sony pulls the plug.  I for one believe that Sony is about to pull or should pull the plug if dismal sales continue as they are.  Sony will be in a dog fight this coming generation; with the Durango overpowering the PS4 and Nintendo's new system releasing a year early with tech that is not so far behind as the Wii was to the PS3.  The PSV is a distraction to Sony; one they cannot afford.  Even hardcore Sony fans have such low expectations of the system (6mil units by the end of Dec2012...really?) that Sony might as well pull the plug and cut their losses.  I see no way for Sony to pull this around and was hoping for more insight on how such a former powerhouse in the gaming industry is relegated to last place this generation and selling a handheld in a worse situation than it had in comparison to the previous one.  The failure (debatable) of the PS Move and PSP GO, also highlight a dangerous trend for Sony that I had not seen since 32X and Saturn era.

The Vita isn't dead. It is doing poorly and in a precarious position however. Sony doesn't seem to have a solid plan of action for turning things around. That's disturbing considering it's current sales rate. I can't see Sony pulling the plug on the platform. However they do need to do something before retailers start reducing the Vita's shelf space.

10 Million by the end of March 2013 is an average sales of (roughly) 250,000 per week from now until then ... Currently the PS-Vista is selling at 35,000 units per week. Realistically, there is no way it could sell that many units by then ...

Typically a $50 price drop has a +100% increase in sales for a few weeks but then they stabilize at around 25-40% for the next few months. And obviously later on the sales increase slowly drops even further.

So it's not unreasonable to assume a 40% average increase in sales over 5 months (Aug-Dec) if a price drop comes in early Fall. A 100% increase over 5 months is just wild fantasies.

If you are referring to the boost a $50 price cut would give... whoever mentioned it earlier was referring to a sustained boost of 40%. A sustained boost of 100% would be unprecedented for a small cut like that. (The PS3 slim re-design in September 2009 also came with a $100 price cut and managed to make around a 150% boost for the rest of the year (calculated by comparing with the previous years sales)... That was a double whammy of new slim design, and an even bigger price cut by $ and %.)

Sure the first week or two would see a boost above 100% (ie over double the previous weeks), but a 20% cut alone would be lucky to push over a 50% sales boost for the remainder of the year unless the cut was made in December (ie when there isn't enough time left in the year for sales to stabilise).

I think if Sony do a price cut sale with increase then developpers will increase the support and sale will improove even more.