Slimebeast said:
HappySqurriel said:
leatherhat said:
I just went and checked ps3's sales for its first holiday. And it averaged around 178k weekly without European sales. Its second holiday and first ww holiday it did significantly better averaging 326k from the middle of October to the end of the year. So thats what one struggling console did in its first holiday. And vita would need to average 300k from now til the end of the year to break 8 million worldwide. So lets discuss the likelihood of that. |
If we make the assumption that the PS-Vita has sold 2.5 million units and there is 18 weeks left in the year.
To make 8 million it would need to average (roughly) 180,000 per week until November and 450,000 per week after that; which doesn't seem possible.
To make 6 million it would need to average (roughly) 110,000 per week until November and 300,000 per week after that; which seems possible but unlikely.
To make 4 million it would need to average 50,000 per week until November and 125,000 per week after that; which will certainly happen.
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Great post and reasonable numbers (although I think there are 20 or 21 weeks left of this year, depending on where you end it).
Using your numbers a little, I predict:
Without price-cut:
50k per week in Aug-Oct = 600K
150K per week in Nov-Dec = 1.35 mill
total: 2.5 mill + 600K + 1.35 mill = 4.45 mill by end of year
With a $50 price cut sales could increase up to 40% (optimistically):
70k per week in Aug-Oct ~ 800K
210K per week in Nov-Dec = 1.9 mill
Total: 2.5 mill + 800K + 1.9 mill = 5.2 mill by end of year
So even with a price cut we get a dismal lifetime sales of 5.2 million by end of 2012.
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LOL...I'm totally with you on that one. If it was another system selling 5.2mil units after 1 year of release; the gaming public would have announced it dead already. Sales of 5-6mil by the holidays is very dismal indeed.
