Crazzyman, I'm just wondering why you are pointing out that Playstation games in Japan sell fewer copies on a larger userbase?  To me, that says that people are getting tired of it.  Yeah, the games might sell more as the first version on a new console worldwide.  But sales overall are falling in Japan, which is where we are talking about.

 GT > GT3 >(by less than 200k) GT2 > GT4

And I think GT5 will be between lucky to reach GT4 levels in Japan.

If you look at the sales of GT in Japan, more than half of the lifetime sales come in the first 3 or 4 weeks.  So you better hope the PS3 reaches your optimistic prediction by whenever it comes out.  (Which is when exactly anybody?)  Otherwise sales won't be very good.  I think lifetime sales in Japan will be less than half of the PS3 userbase at the time of release.

On another note Crazzyman, you seem like a hypocrite.  Earlier in this thread you pointed out that MGS2 and MGS3 both sold around the same amount in Japan.  Seems like it has a hardcore fan base that will buy it.  Just the kind of people you were complaining about in another thread about the Wii (About people who buy SMB, Zelda, etc.).

 As a side note, about the general movement of Japan to a casual/handheld market: maybe this is why MS doesn't care so much about what happens in Japan is that they saw this coming?  NA and definitely Others are growing in regards to consoles and now make up a much larger portion of the market than Japan.  If PS3 only sells 5 million there MS will probably actually be happy with how they did.  Of course this is just an observation on my part, it could still be lack of appealing games/outside company/quality problems.

 you don't calculate how big a market is by its population.  Try that same calculation on Europe, it will be meaningless.  

I think this thread is more suited for the 360 in the microsoft section.

Seems like people are willing to overlook the 360's fatal performance in Japan because its ranking at a second spot.

The PS3 is doomed in Japan, many people imply that in this topic so it must be true. Let's ignore the fact that the PS2 and PSP still do great in Japan on a site that focusses on actual sales numbers and let's doom Sony and the PS3 just 2 weeks after the holidays.

Discussing sales of GT5, a game that will not be released untill the end of the year is the best thing to do if you want to get a fair perspective on sales in the next few months. I also wonder how sales of killzone 8 will be, let's specualte on those numbers aswell.

Ps3's hardest fight is in the US. In japan it's the only "hightech" console which appeals to a smaller market then the Wii or PSP do. Japanese just like small gadgets and handhelds and that's their desicion. I'm always amazed how fanboys will grab any excuse to make some more flawed points about the doomed PS3.

PS3 hardest fight is in Japan

as

Home console hardest fight is in Japan !
Just consider the Wii sales drop before Wiifit ...

PS3 BINGO!

Wii sales drop before Wii Fit was supply constraint, not because demand had dropped!!

Gazz, we are talking about GT5 because there are two big franchises for Sony in Japan - Gran Turismo and Final Fantasy. They drove sales for PS2 in 2001 about a year after the system launched and also helped make PS a success back in 97/98. Most of the other big PS / PS2 games have dropped away much more over the years - even over the latter life of PS2. Resident Evil isn't half as big as it used to be in Japan (last million seller was RE3 in 1999), Devil May Cry has never done a million and less with each installment, Tekken has been declining, too many Tales games, Metal Gear Solid has been more steady than most but at best MGS4 could reach 650-700k based on past history.

The point is that there are very few games on the horizon (however highly anticipated they are by hardcore fans on this site and others) that have the ability to drive sales in Japan for PS3 - even the two biggest (GT and FF) have been less and less successful with each sequel and are will have little impact on the current poor PS3 sales. Next week it will be down to 25k, 20k the week after and will probably be hovering around 15k most of the year with boosts for big game releases. This is definitely Gamecube territory and I see little that is going to make that change at the moment.

Yes, relying on old figures in a fastly changing market like that of consoles and games is the wise thing to do. I actually made millions by looking at the historical data of the stockmarket too. Shame it happened only in my dreams where everything is possible.

Games aren't going to be popular forever. Surely some franchises will last longer then others, but things just change in every market. Just compare it to the television market, we aren't still watching the A-team or Beverly hills 90210. Then again, As the world turns still is as popular now as it was 40 years ago. It's not my type of program and neither are some games.

Sometimes the market just demands things that aren't completely logical. Look at Mario, millions love him but I am personally just not that interested in him. He even looks just as gay as the village people do (Gazz puts on his anti flame suit and hides in the corner of a bunker shivering). That's just my opnion.

Sure proven brandnames (games) will give anything a boost, but there have been so many people that have come to the gaming market and just as many have gone to other activities. Going back more then one year in time gives a way to saturated picture of a market that moves too fast to look at particular games.

Arguing about lifetime sales for games that aren't even finished development yet is one of the silliest things you can do. Let's at least wait until these games are about to release first, OK?

I agree with NJ5's overall point from the start of this thread. The PS3 spent much of 2007 in crisis mode (in Japan), after sales dropped down to 10k per week around February and hovered there for the following five or six months. Sales *should* be better this year; if they fall below 20k and stay there for a sustained period of time, the console is really in trouble. Software sales at the moment are not acceptable either. The user base is far larger than the 360, yet overall software sales are only marginally higher. Sony had better hope that the Japanese embrace their offerings in 2008 more than they did in 2007.

The American market isn't all that much better though. The PS3 only has 15% of the market there, and it's selling comparable software to match. Sure, it sells good software relative to the small install base, but that only gets you so far (just ask the Gamecube!) I'd actually be more worried about America if I were Sony, if only because the overall market is significantly larger there.

No, I'm not saying the PS3 is "doomed", just that it's tracking barely above XBox/Gamecube levels in many statistics at the moment. Whether or not you consider that "doom" is up to you. To be fair though, any real analysis needs to wait until early February, when we can see the new plateau levels for non-holiday sales, and get our hands on Sony's quarterly financials. I'm working on some analysis that I'll write up when we reach that point.

 Except its flattening out, look at the PS3 sales in japan this week, down to the 30's, next week probably near the 20's, so it won't overtake, and ten you can see the N64 will have its uplifit putting even more space between them