well, after ps3's failed lanuch, alot of people expected ps3 to either fall off by '08 or just about reach 6-7 million at this current point. it is completely possible that people could be wrong again. ps3 can still increase in sales. i dont think its fair to instantly assume that ps3 cannot compete anymore, because it is very possible and quite likely in my opinion, that it can.

Those numbers are horribly low for certain titles. Both MGS2 and MGS3 broke 850k in Japan, according to VGChartz, not including MGS2: Substance and MGS3: Subsistance.

MGS has the fanbase to sell well over 500k.

As for RE5, RE4 sold over 220k on the GC! Despite a ps2 version in the works. It sold another 490k on the ps2. This time, since the 360 is basically out of the picture, there won't be any competition between two consoles, so RE5 should sell somewhere between those two figures, despite the ps3's small install base, and the game will boost ps3 hardware sales.

Hell, even Resistance cracked the 100k mark in Japan (it's currently at the 140k mark), so Resistance 2 and Killzone 2 combined will most definitely break 100k, despite being FPSes.

I'm not even going to bother with the rest of the games, because VGC doesn't have numbers for half of their predecessors. But know this, many of these games will sell much better than you estimate. I personally think the bigger ones will sell very well, because they are from well established franchises with large fanbases, and will push ps3s. As a result, because of an increased install base, the smaller titles should sell pretty well as well.

Tbh, because of the major differences between the Wii and ps3, I think that many Japanese gamers will be multi-console owners in the end, even if it takes something as big as FF or MGS to push them to buy a ps3. The ps2 and GC, in comparison, were very similar in concept and features, so it was strictly games that made the difference.

Metal Gear Solid: Portable Ops - 400k with 4,5 mln. psp on the launch.
Metal Gear Solid 2 - 850k with 6 mln. ps2 on the launch.
Metal Gear Solid 3 - 860k with 17 mln. ps2 on the launch.

So, there atleast 400k of true mgs fans in Japan and total 850k mgs lovers.

Gran Turismo 3 - 1,9 mln. with 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - 3 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

1.8 mln. PS3 today.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan with average weekly sales 40k.
PS3 will reach 5 mln. in Japan with average weekly sales 60k.

@Crazzy
RE4

@soriku

it may not pass wii's sales, but i think it will compete in both hardware and software aspects. not close, but enough for nintendo to be wary.

ps3 and wii will be the consoles to own in '08 in my opinion.

 Perhaps, but everyone is pretty much going from the trends in the past. The Wii has pretty much double the PS3's sales and has an absolutely insane momentum right now. When in history has there ever been a role reversal people expect to happen between the PS3 and Wii? People expect all of the PS3's multimedia to help it surpass the Wii when the time comes but that's not happening, is it? Now, it's all about the games and which slew of offerings both consoles has to appeal to consumers.

 Oh, it is?  I'll keep that in mind.

Just wondering, but what about the ones with no data at all? Any reason why you ignored them? No offense, I'm just curious.  I was going to use Shadow of the Colossus and Ico in my argument above, but there is no sales date for Ico, and only NA sales are listed for SotC, lol. 

I don't think you know enough about the Japanese market.  Many members on this site have analyzed Japanese gamers' behavior and custom.  They don't like to buy new IP unless it is really good.

Among the title you listed, only few are considered as big titles for Japanese and they are all doing very well.  The sale numbers of Dynasty Warriors 6, Dynasty Warrior Gundam, and Hot Shot Golf 5 in Japan alone are OK.  I don't know why you call these games "bombed".

Some games don't sell because they are crap.  The same rule also applies to Wii.  Consumers are smart enough to say no to them. 

you missed my point. i didnt say ps3 can surpass wii, because as you said, past trends are against that happening. my point was that ps3 can still compete. it may not have wii's momentum, but i think it will rise to a competitive level to the wii.

The entire industry in Japan seems to be in a real critical situation (excluding Nintendo). I'm just talking games for the Japanese market here, not games like MGS4 or RE5 which have world-wide appeal.
Their games sell like crap on Wii. Only DQ:Swords had decent numbers and it tanked very quickly. The game was terribly shallow though so it doesn't help either way.
3rd party games seem to sell better on PS3, but still like crap and then factor in the development costs of the HD graphics and you might as well be back on Wii.
PSP - Forget it, almost nothing sells there.
360 - Who?
DS - Here 3rd parties can actually make a profit, but still, few break-out games overall.

Necessity is the mother of invention and the Japan industry needs to desperately reinvent itself (Nintendo already has) or a lot of companies could vanish before this generation is out.