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HarryEaster said:

@Crazzyman:

Likely sales:

Metal Gear Solid 4 (500k),
Killzone 2 + Resistance 2 (100k),
LittleBigPlanet (500k),
Gran Turismo 5 (750k),
Tekken 6 (300k),
Final Fantasy XIII (1.5m) + Final Fantasy XIII:versus (500k),
White Knight Story (250k),
Devil May Cry 4 (300k),
Last Remnant (150k),
Star Ocean 4 (250k),
Soul Calibur 4 (75k),
Armored Core 4 (125k),
Naruto PS3 project (200k),
Disgaea 3 (150k),
Team ICO games (150k),
Tales of Vesperia (300k),
Resident Evil 5 (250k),
Silent Hill 5 (100k),
Grand Theft Auto 4 (250k),
Yakuza 3 (350k),


Those numbers are horribly low for certain titles. Both MGS2 and MGS3 broke 850k in Japan, according to VGChartz, not including MGS2: Substance and MGS3: Subsistance.

MGS has the fanbase to sell well over 500k.

As for RE5, RE4 sold over 220k on the GC! Despite a ps2 version in the works. It sold another 490k on the ps2. This time, since the 360 is basically out of the picture, there won't be any competition between two consoles, so RE5 should sell somewhere between those two figures, despite the ps3's small install base, and the game will boost ps3 hardware sales.

Hell, even Resistance cracked the 100k mark in Japan (it's currently at the 140k mark), so Resistance 2 and Killzone 2 combined will most definitely break 100k, despite being FPSes.

I'm not even going to bother with the rest of the games, because VGC doesn't have numbers for half of their predecessors. But know this, many of these games will sell much better than you estimate. I personally think the bigger ones will sell very well, because they are from well established franchises with large fanbases, and will push ps3s. As a result, because of an increased install base, the smaller titles should sell pretty well as well.

Tbh, because of the major differences between the Wii and ps3, I think that many Japanese gamers will be multi-console owners in the end, even if it takes something as big as FF or MGS to push them to buy a ps3. The ps2 and GC, in comparison, were very similar in concept and features, so it was strictly games that made the difference.