Arguing about lifetime sales for games that aren't even finished development yet is one of the silliest things you can do. Let's at least wait until these games are about to release first, OK?
I agree with NJ5's overall point from the start of this thread. The PS3 spent much of 2007 in crisis mode (in Japan), after sales dropped down to 10k per week around February and hovered there for the following five or six months. Sales *should* be better this year; if they fall below 20k and stay there for a sustained period of time, the console is really in trouble. Software sales at the moment are not acceptable either. The user base is far larger than the 360, yet overall software sales are only marginally higher. Sony had better hope that the Japanese embrace their offerings in 2008 more than they did in 2007.
The American market isn't all that much better though. The PS3 only has 15% of the market there, and it's selling comparable software to match. Sure, it sells good software relative to the small install base, but that only gets you so far (just ask the Gamecube!) I'd actually be more worried about America if I were Sony, if only because the overall market is significantly larger there.
No, I'm not saying the PS3 is "doomed", just that it's tracking barely above XBox/Gamecube levels in many statistics at the moment. Whether or not you consider that "doom" is up to you. To be fair though, any real analysis needs to wait until early February, when we can see the new plateau levels for non-holiday sales, and get our hands on Sony's quarterly financials. I'm working on some analysis that I'll write up when we reach that point.
End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)
