By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - Prediction: PS3 will reach 105 million units before the Wii

 

Predictions:

Only PS3 will reach it 64 12.26%
 
Only Wii will reach it 278 53.26%
 
PS3 will reach it first 63 12.07%
 
Wii will reach it first 116 22.22%
 
Total:521

I think they'll both reach 105mill but the wii will first. The lead is just took large atm.



Around the Network

possible, but i wouldnt bet on it. Yes I believe on the 100m, but Sony isn't the only HD console out there, so its hard



LET'S GO KNICKS

your 2013 numbers are way off, noway can it do 12.5 million when the next xbox and playstation are coming out. 2013 has good enough games to push it for the first 3 quarters but in the holiday season with the next gen consoles coming out i think its holiday season would be lackluster



Both the X360 and PS3 could reach 100m, if they had another 2 or 3 years as main consoles of Sony and Microsoft.

I expect them to sell 80~85m by the end of 2013.



There is a better chance that the Last of Us will outsell Call of Duty Black Ops 2. In other words 0% chance seems a bit too optimistic for your prediction to come true.

The Wii will get to 105mil by the end of 2013 at the latest. The ps3 won't even end up ever getting close to that number ever. You are ridiculously overestimating the importance of emerging market sales and underestimating the importance of western sales. Yes the balance is slowly changing. No there won't be a ridiculous shift within the next 3 years...



Around the Network
kowenicki said:
When the new Wii and Xbox hit (especally in the US and UK) ps3 sales will fall off a cliff in the west.

So, no.

Couldn't disagree more. PS3 sales wil sustain similar long-term sales to the PS2. It will continue to sell well in spite of the presence of the new Wii and Xbox. Why? Cheaper price point for one thing. Also because playstation is a lot of people's 2nd favourite console- those who don't already have one and aren't out-and-out fanboyz of xbox/wii might still want one. 

Wii on the other hand will reach 105m sales before PS3, but PS3 should beat it in all-time sales



Feel free to bump this thread in a couple of years.



enrageorange said:

There is a better chance that the Last of Us will outsell Call of Duty Black Ops 2. In other words 0% chance seems a bit too optimistic for your prediction to come true.

The Wii will get to 105mil by the end of 2013 at the latest. The ps3 won't even end up ever getting close to that number ever. You are ridiculously overestimating the importance of emerging market sales and underestimating the importance of western sales. Yes the balance is slowly changing. No there won't be a ridiculous shift within the next 3 years...


Don't underestimate the power of playstation. It's highly likely PS3 will continue to sell quite well well into the decade, whereas Wii will become a damp squib. There's no way Wii can shift significant numbers while there is no improvement in third party support, and with the presence of next generation consoles will be good as dead in the water. 

Wii lifetime sales 110m-120m.

PS3 lifetime sales 120m+ (case in point! Brazil will like PS3 in 2020, but not the other two)



That seems very optimistic, to be honest.
Your expectations from this price cut/remodel thing are way more than reasonable. It's really similar in nature to that Wii remodel we had last year - it's purpose is to be cheap and not to be more appealing. I mean, you expect PS3 to outdo even Sony's expectations this year, even though they were 1m off their prediction for it last FY, if I remember correctly.
I'd put it more like:
2012: 13m for 77m total (Hits Sony's expectations exactly. Price cut/remodel serves to deliver another decent year with small YoY loss.)
2013: 8.5m for 85.5m total (Sales fall off a cliff. There's really absolutely nothing for this year, except probable announcements/release of PS4 and X720, in addition to WiiU gaining popularity, which are both going to drain this generation's sales heavily. Price cuts don't have such long term effects.)
2014: 5.5m for 91m total (Natural decline continues, but Sony's developing markets kick in to save from a >50% fall.)
Final numbers should be 95m-98m at best. PS3 is no PS2 and it won't be in developing markets either, giving it way shorter legs. Given that it'll be within 10m of the Wii, that's damned impressive already, though.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

lets forget if it gets there or not.

OP if by miracle it does and it has the most consoles sold. will that mean ps3 won this gen?