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Forums - Sales - Prediction: PS3 will reach 105 million units before the Wii

 

Predictions:

Only PS3 will reach it 64 12.26%
 
Only Wii will reach it 278 53.26%
 
PS3 will reach it first 63 12.07%
 
Wii will reach it first 116 22.22%
 
Total:521
Turkish on 25 July 2012
kowenicki said:
Turkish said:
33% of PS2s have been sold since the start of this generation.
Lets use the more pessimistic scenario for PS3: It sits at 85 million in April 2014. Because PS3 was not the dominant console this gen, lets say 15% of all PS3s will be sold after PS4/720 comes out. That will leave the PS3 still sitting at around 98 million. Damn impressive, even if you're pessimistic.

can you show me the dates and source of the 33% please, just so I can do some maths to obliterate your argument.  Thanks.


http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=473601

 

Latest shipment data. PS2 was around 100 million at the start of this gen when 360 released. Or 115m in march 2007. It sold around 30% this gen, give or take a few percent.



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Cobretti2 on 25 July 2012
Conegamer said:
Turkish said:
Conegamer said:
Ahahaha, people seriously believe this?

No way will the PS3 sell any more than 10mil a year after this year. And it will NOT have the selling power of the PS2, because the PS2 was dominant then, and gaming has changed. It's near saturation. Only the Wii will hit it, and will hit it late 2013/early 2014.

The way I see it, PS3 will sell:

2012- 11mil (-20% YoY)
2013- 7-8mil (-28% or -35% YoY), PS4 launch
2014- 4mil (-50%ish)
2015- Minimum sales, say another 5-10mil overall

And this is being optimistic. This would leave the PS3 at around 90 mil when all is said and done. Damn respectable, but where are these other magical numbers coming from? Where's the other 15mil? That would require an entire year of 2011 sales to be added onto these numbers, and that isn't happening. The only possibility is the Slim boosts sales a bit more than expected, so 12mil this year, and add another 1mil on there. But there's still a huge shortfall.

All the Wii needs to do is sell another 9 mil LT. Expecting another 4 this year, and 2 the year after, so it'll trickle to 105mil. But no way will the PS3 get near it.

 

Lol. Your prediction of PS3 doing 11 million this year is even more  daring than mine.


Perhaps you misread the part where the Slim and pricecut could boost it to 12mil. And it's down YoY around 25% each week lately, and trending down. So who knows. But 90mil is the limit.


if anthing the new slim will kill ps3 sales, if the rumored pictures are true. it looks so tacky and cheap.



 

 

Cobretti2 on 25 July 2012
KBG29 said:
PS3 will not beat the Wii to 105, but I don't expect the Wii to do a hole lot more than that.

I believe that both the PS3 and the 360 will sell very well for many years to come. They both have a lot more going for them than the PS2 ever did. They are media centers and will always have the ability to grow through firmware. Both will be supported by third parties as they will still be capable of scaled back versions of next gen games just like the PS2 and the Wii saw this gen.

Additionally I see MS and Sony stay very interested in the products for revenue and profits. In the case of Nintendo, I think they forgot they were selling the Wii some time ago.


if this happens, what incentives do people have of buying a PS4 or 720?

I know I would wait if the gfx difference wan't much to bother with an upgrade



 

 

ethomaz on 25 July 2012

PS3 will sell over 100 million for sure.



Kenology on 25 July 2012

I really hope someone is bookmarking these threads so we can come back and laugh at these silly predictions.

I wonder why it is the Sony fans who make the majority of these insane and unrealistic predictions.



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Busted on 25 July 2012
hollabackenny said:
i give it 85 mill max


Exactly what i was going to say



TheShape31 on 25 July 2012

I think there's a reasonable chance that neither console hits that number.



TWRoO on 25 July 2012
SOLIDSNAKE08 said:

i dont get the ps3 wont keep selling like the ps2 did because " PS3 was not the dominant console of its generation". the dominant console is wii but look at how its selling? people buy consoles because of GAMES! thats why people kept buying PS2. because it had tons of games and was still getting new games even after PS3 released. it has nothing to do with being the dominant console of a generation. you think people who bought their PS2's after 07/08 said ' yes i'll buy this because it was the dominant console of the generation?' lol

Your point is correct, but the point behind "PS3 won't keep selling like the PS2" is not really just about PS2 being dominant (it was dominant because of a number of factors the PS3 hasn't had)

The PS3 has a lot going for it and I agree it will keep selling, certainly after the Wii is discontinued and likely after the X360 dies... but it won't sell another 50 million after Christmas 2012, which is what the PS2 managed after Christmas 2005.



DieAppleDie on 25 July 2012

i totally agree with you Turkish



Aielyn on 25 July 2012
small44 said:
ps2 sold 40 millions after the next gen was out.

PS2 cost $129 by the time the PS3 released and had a massive number of exclusive games, and had all of the momentum and brand awareness prior to the Wii's release. PS3 currently costs $250 for the cheapest version, and lacks the brand awareness due to the Wii becoming the best-known system, and has relatively few exclusives.

But more than all of that, the PS2 was given strong ongoing development support well into the following generation, whereas the PS3 is unlikely to see such support. And with Sony lacking funds really badly, they can't price the PS3 low enough to produce the necessary sales boosts without losing money (which they'll be loathe to do, especially if it eats into potential PS4 purchases).