By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - Prediction: PS3 will reach 105 million units before the Wii

 

Predictions:

Only PS3 will reach it 64 12.26%
 
Only Wii will reach it 278 53.26%
 
PS3 will reach it first 63 12.07%
 
Wii will reach it first 116 22.22%
 
Total:521
Turkish on 25 July 2012
Immortal said:
That seems very optimistic, to be honest.
Your expectations from this price cut/remodel thing are way more than reasonable. It's really similar in nature to that Wii remodel we had last year - it's purpose is to be cheap and not to be more appealing. I mean, you expect PS3 to outdo even Sony's expectations this year, even though they were 1m off their prediction for it last FY, if I remember correctly.
I'd put it more like:
2012: 13m for 77m total (Hits Sony's expectations exactly. Price cut/remodel serves to deliver another decent year with small YoY loss.)
2013: 8.5m for 85.5m total (Sales fall off a cliff. There's really absolutely nothing for this year, except probable announcements/release of PS4 and X720, in addition to WiiU gaining popularity, which are both going to drain this generation's sales heavily. Price cuts don't have such long term effects.)
2014: 5.5m for 91m total (Natural decline continues, but Sony's developing markets kick in to save from a >50% fall.)
Final numbers should be 95m-98m at best. PS3 is no PS2 and it won't be in developing markets either, giving it way shorter legs. Given that it'll be within 10m of the Wii, that's damned impressive already, though.

Sony never said how much they expect PS3 to sell this FY, they expect 16m PS2+PS3 combined. I think its probably around 13.5m PS3 and 2m PS2, give or take. But interesting predictions you got there.



Around the Network
Conegamer on 25 July 2012
Turkish said:
Conegamer said:
Ahahaha, people seriously believe this?

No way will the PS3 sell any more than 10mil a year after this year. And it will NOT have the selling power of the PS2, because the PS2 was dominant then, and gaming has changed. It's near saturation. Only the Wii will hit it, and will hit it late 2013/early 2014.

The way I see it, PS3 will sell:

2012- 11mil (-20% YoY)
2013- 7-8mil (-28% or -35% YoY), PS4 launch
2014- 4mil (-50%ish)
2015- Minimum sales, say another 5-10mil overall

And this is being optimistic. This would leave the PS3 at around 90 mil when all is said and done. Damn respectable, but where are these other magical numbers coming from? Where's the other 15mil? That would require an entire year of 2011 sales to be added onto these numbers, and that isn't happening. The only possibility is the Slim boosts sales a bit more than expected, so 12mil this year, and add another 1mil on there. But there's still a huge shortfall.

All the Wii needs to do is sell another 9 mil LT. Expecting another 4 this year, and 2 the year after, so it'll trickle to 105mil. But no way will the PS3 get near it.

 

Lol. Your prediction of PS3 doing 11 million this year is even more  daring than mine.



Perhaps you misread the part where the Slim and pricecut could boost it to 12mil. And it's down YoY around 25% each week lately, and trending down. So who knows. But 90mil is the limit.

 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

SOLIDSNAKE08 on 25 July 2012

i dont get the ps3 wont keep selling like the ps2 did because " PS3 was not the dominant console of its generation". the dominant console is wii but look at how its selling? people buy consoles because of GAMES! thats why people kept buying PS2. because it had tons of games and was still getting new games even after PS3 released. it has nothing to do with being the dominant console of a generation. you think people who bought their PS2's after 07/08 said ' yes i'll buy this because it was the dominant console of the generation?' lol



small44 on 25 July 2012
Immortal said:
That seems very optimistic, to be honest.
Your expectations from this price cut/remodel thing are way more than reasonable. It's really similar in nature to that Wii remodel we had last year - it's purpose is to be cheap and not to be more appealing. I mean, you expect PS3 to outdo even Sony's expectations this year, even though they were 1m off their prediction for it last FY, if I remember correctly.
I'd put it more like:
2012: 13m for 77m total (Hits Sony's expectations exactly. Price cut/remodel serves to deliver another decent year with small YoY loss.)
2013: 8.5m for 85.5m total (Sales fall off a cliff. There's really absolutely nothing for this year, except probable announcements/release of PS4 and X720, in addition to WiiU gaining popularity, which are both going to drain this generation's sales heavily. Price cuts don't have such long term effects.)
2014: 5.5m for 91m total (Natural decline continues, but Sony's developing markets kick in to save from a >50% fall.)
Final numbers should be 95m-98m at best. PS3 is no PS2 and it won't be in developing markets either, giving it way shorter legs. Given that it'll be within 10m of the Wii, that's damned impressive already, though.

Ps3 have have a bigger library  of games then the next-gen and way less expensives it will take a long to make the transition to the next-gen and Sony will still support the ps3 for a long time after the ps4.

And the 2009 price cut make a long effect to ps3.



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

Turkish on 25 July 2012

33% of PS2s have been sold since the start of this generation.
Lets use the more pessimistic scenario for PS3: It sits at 85 million in April 2014. Because PS3 was not the dominant console this gen, lets say 15% of all PS3s will be sold after PS4/720 comes out. That will leave the PS3 still sitting at around 98 million. Damn impressive, even if you're pessimistic.



Around the Network
SOLIDSNAKE08 on 25 July 2012
Turkish said:
33% of PS2s have been sold since the start of this generation.
Lets use the more pessimistic scenario for PS3: It sits at 85 million in April 2014. Because PS3 was not the dominant console this gen, lets say 15% of all PS3s will be sold after PS4/720 comes out. That will leave the PS3 still sitting at around 98 million. Damn impressive, even if you're pessimistic.


its pretty clear, ps3 will pass 100m. before the wii? doubt it but ps3 will glide past 100m. if you see any other scenario, than your lying to yourself.



bouzane on 25 July 2012
Turkish said:
33% of PS2s have been sold since the start of this generation.
Lets use the more pessimistic scenario for PS3: It sits at 85 million in April 2014. Because PS3 was not the dominant console this gen, lets say 15% of all PS3s will be sold after PS4/720 comes out. That will leave the PS3 still sitting at around 98 million. Damn impressive, even if you're pessimistic.


I'll never understand how a consoles dominance is relevant to this argument. I know it was a different time but all I can think of is the SNES. The Genesis was the dominant system but Nintendo supported the SNES for years after the Genesis was off the market and they actually ended up overtaking them as a result. Having a smaller market share in 1993 didn't stop Nintendo from supporting their console because the only thing that could stop the sales of the SNES was the release of the N64.



KBG29 on 25 July 2012

PS3 will not beat the Wii to 105, but I don't expect the Wii to do a hole lot more than that.

I believe that both the PS3 and the 360 will sell very well for many years to come. They both have a lot more going for them than the PS2 ever did. They are media centers and will always have the ability to grow through firmware. Both will be supported by third parties as they will still be capable of scaled back versions of next gen games just like the PS2 and the Wii saw this gen.

Additionally I see MS and Sony stay very interested in the products for revenue and profits. In the case of Nintendo, I think they forgot they were selling the Wii some time ago.



Stop hate, let others live the life they were given. Everyone has their problems, and no one should have to feel ashamed for the way they were born. Be proud of who you are, encourage others to be proud of themselves. Learn, research, absorb everything around you. Nothing is meaningless, a purpose is placed on everything no matter how you perceive it. Discover how to love, and share that love with everything that you encounter. Help make existence a beautiful thing.

Kevyn B Grams
10/03/2010 

KBG29 on PSN&XBL

bouzane on 25 July 2012
kowenicki said:
Turkish said:
33% of PS2s have been sold since the start of this generation.
Lets use the more pessimistic scenario for PS3: It sits at 85 million in April 2014. Because PS3 was not the dominant console this gen, lets say 15% of all PS3s will be sold after PS4/720 comes out. That will leave the PS3 still sitting at around 98 million. Damn impressive, even if you're pessimistic.

can you show me the dates and source of the 33% please, just so I can do some maths to obliterate your argument.  Thanks.


http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/PlayStation_2



SOLIDSNAKE08 on 25 July 2012
bouzane said:
Turkish said:
33% of PS2s have been sold since the start of this generation.
Lets use the more pessimistic scenario for PS3: It sits at 85 million in April 2014. Because PS3 was not the dominant console this gen, lets say 15% of all PS3s will be sold after PS4/720 comes out. That will leave the PS3 still sitting at around 98 million. Damn impressive, even if you're pessimistic.


I'll never understand how a consoles dominance is relevant to this argument. I know it was a different time but all I can think of is the SNES. The Genesis was the dominant system but Nintendo supported the SNES for years after the Genesis was off the market and they actually ended up overtaking them as a result. Having a smaller market share in 1993 didn't stop Nintendo from supporting their console because the only thing that could stop the sales of the SNES was the release of the N64.

apparently no one buys a console that wasnt the dominant of the gen, so expect the wii to fly off shelves this holiday after wii u is released.