My point is that the last-gen don't die just after the next gen if the support still there so ps3 can also survive for a while.

The PS3 can survive for a couple years with sales around the Wii-mark for this year, maybe a bit higher, but no way will it sell another 40mil at this point.

You should make a Wii timeline.

A couple quick points. The PS3's entry model may currently cost $250 but you can not compare that to the cost of the PS2 during the PS3 launch for the simple fact that we may very well be over two years away from the PS4 launch. I would assume that the PS3 will have reached a lower price point by that time. The PS3 is currently outselling both of its competitors and its been a while since its last price cut so I imagine that this counts as having momentum. I haven't read much on brand awareness but I was unaware that it was a problem for the PS3, in fact, I thought it was one of the system's strongest assets. Also, what do you base your assumption that the PS3 will be unlikely to foster a similar level of late life-cycle developer as its predecessor? We're talking about a capable piece of hardware which many developers will have years of experience with and an installed user base of at least 80 million.

Haven't we learned already that Turkish makes deliberately ridiculous threads for his own amusement? Anyway, here are some numbers for past years along with my predictions for future years:

2006: 00.2m - 00.2m
2007: 07.9m - 08.1m
2008: 10.2m - 19.3m
2009: 12.9m - 33.2m
2010: 13.9m - 46.1m
2011: 14.1m - 60.5m

2012: 12.5m - 73.0m
2013: 10.5m - 83.5m
2014: 06.5m - 90.0m
2015: 05.0m - 95.0m (2015 & Beyond)

Lifetime: 95.0m. Pretty Good Sales. I'll say 91m if things go wrong and towards 99m if everything go fortunately.

Indeed. Did you know that, in 2005/6, the Gamecube had a way bigger library than the HD consoles and the Wii and was way cheaper? And yet it died off fairly quickly, didn't it? Now, while the PS3 is in a much, much better position than the GC, that is my point about the PS2's dominance -- the PS3 doesn't have nearly as many nearly as appealing games as the PS2 did and isn't gonna have nearly as much support in the next few years. It will do substantially worse as a result.

Also, while the '09 price cut did do that, it was accompanied by the system's first redesign, which was actuallly appealing. If you'd notice, pretty much every price cut made since then - for any console - has had no major effect (2009 Wii cut did nothing to stop a notable decline in 2010, 2011 Wii cut did absolutely nothing to prevent Wii's collapse that year, 2011 PS3 cut was quite a fail as well). I'd say all systems are at mass market price and price cuts will only provide a temporary boost now for this generation's consoles.

Now, keep in mind that I'm not saying it'll do badly at all, considering I'm predicting 95m+ (which sounds ridiculously high to me now), but only a very determined fan can seriously believe it'll cross 100m, much less 105m.

The GameCube is a Nintendo system, a company that has traditionally dropped support for legacy systems much more rapidly than Sony. Case in point, the PSP has been outselling the DS for quite some time because they utilize different business strategies. You can not directly compare their systems. Price cuts are rarely effective below the $200 price point because the cost of the hardware is no longer a significant obstacle to consumers. The PS3 currently costs $250 for the cheapest model so cost is still currently an issue that needs to be addressed by Sony. You should be careful when comparing apples and oranges.

I don't understand why you say that. You registered in 2007, are you saying you never even noticed the "how many years until Wii passes PS2", "how long until Wii reaches 200 million" threads years ago? Or "PS3/360 will not pass 50/60 million" by Nintendo fans?

I'll bookmark this thread for you, if you haven't done already.

Fair enough for the Sony supporting consoles longer point. I wasn't really comparing them, anyway. It was just an example to illustrate my point; I even mentioned the fact that PS3 is way better in that regard. That said, my point about PS3 having been weaker than PS2 in terms of sales so far being a reason for it to continue being weaker henceforth still stands. And the only the thing arguable about that is the extent to which the PS3 will be behind, really. I mean, it's not as if the PSP is doing PS2 numbers right now and PS3 is comparable to PSP launch aligned, from what I recall.
Also, while I have heard that "below $199" idea quite a few times, from what I've seen, that really isn't accurate, with the three price cuts I mentioned being fairly decent examples to prove my point.

PSP has a good start but a bad end ,people lost interest in psp software  witch effect the hardware in fact the God Of War Chain Of Olympus do 3 millions and God Of War Ghost of Sparta nor even 1 millions in contrast ps3 still has software support from Sony and from peoples.