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Forums - Sales - Prediction: PS3 will reach 105 million units before the Wii

 

Predictions:

Only PS3 will reach it 64 12.26%
 
Only Wii will reach it 278 53.26%
 
PS3 will reach it first 63 12.07%
 
Wii will reach it first 116 22.22%
 
Total:521
SOLIDSNAKE08 on 25 July 2012

how many wii's sold so far in 2012?



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Turkish on 25 July 2012
SOLIDSNAKE08 said:
how many wii's sold so far in 2012?


1.5m



SOLIDSNAKE08 on 25 July 2012
Turkish said:
SOLIDSNAKE08 said:
how many wii's sold so far in 2012?


1.5m

damn, thats awful. i'd still wait till the holidays to see if the wii is actually dead. it may rise again in nov and dec.



bouzane on 25 July 2012
Immortal said:
bouzane said:
Immortal said:

Indeed. Did you know that, in 2005/6, the Gamecube had a way bigger library than the HD consoles and the Wii and was way cheaper? And yet it died off fairly quickly, didn't it? Now, while the PS3 is in a much, much better position than the GC, that is my point about the PS2's dominance -- the PS3 doesn't have nearly as many nearly as appealing games as the PS2 did and isn't gonna have nearly as much support in the next few years. It will do substantially worse as a result.

Also, while the '09 price cut did do that, it was accompanied by the system's first redesign, which was actuallly appealing. If you'd notice, pretty much every price cut made since then - for any console - has had no major effect (2009 Wii cut did nothing to stop a notable decline in 2010, 2011 Wii cut did absolutely nothing to prevent Wii's collapse that year, 2011 PS3 cut was quite a fail as well). I'd say all systems are at mass market price and price cuts will only provide a temporary boost now for this generation's consoles.

Now, keep in mind that I'm not saying it'll do badly at all, considering I'm predicting 95m+ (which sounds ridiculously high to me now), but only a very determined fan can seriously believe it'll cross 100m, much less 105m.


The GameCube is a Nintendo system, a company that has traditionally dropped support for legacy systems much more rapidly than Sony. Case in point, the PSP has been outselling the DS for quite some time because they utilize different business strategies. You can not directly compare their systems. Price cuts are rarely effective below the $200 price point because the cost of the hardware is no longer a significant obstacle to consumers. The PS3 currently costs $250 for the cheapest model so cost is still currently an issue that needs to be addressed by Sony. You should be careful when comparing apples and oranges.

Fair enough for the Sony supporting consoles longer point. I wasn't really comparing them, anyway. It was just an example to illustrate my point; I even mentioned the fact that PS3 is way better in that regard. That said, my point about PS3 having been weaker than PS2 in terms of sales so far being a reason for it to continue being weaker henceforth still stands. And the only the thing arguable about that is the extent to which the PS3 will be behind, really. I mean, it's not as if the PSP is doing PS2 numbers right now and PS3 is comparable to PSP launch aligned, from what I recall.
Also, while I have heard that "below $199" idea quite a few times, from what I've seen, that really isn't accurate, with the three price cuts I mentioned being fairly decent examples to prove my point.


Is the PS3 really in a similar situation as the PSP was in 2010? Personally, I really don't think so. Also, I can not speak for others but $250 is way too much money for a toy, I won't even consider a PS3 until $150.



DieAppleDie on 25 July 2012

absolutely horrible horrible Wii numbers....
wait, which is the console thats going to sell 100m+, and its going to be replaced in 4 months?
YEEES the Wiiiiiii



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Kresnik on 25 July 2012
kowenicki said:
Turkish said:
33% of PS2s have been sold since the start of this generation.
Lets use the more pessimistic scenario for PS3: It sits at 85 million in April 2014. Because PS3 was not the dominant console this gen, lets say 15% of all PS3s will be sold after PS4/720 comes out. That will leave the PS3 still sitting at around 98 million. Damn impressive, even if you're pessimistic.

can you show me the dates and source of the 33% please, just so I can do some maths to obliterate your argument.  Thanks.


He seems to have done his maths using lots of round figures.  "Around" 100 million PS2's at the time of PS3's launch, "around" 150 million now, hence his 33% figure.

I think you'd have a hard time 'obliterating' his argument really, did you come up with any figures?  There could have been anywhere between 103m and 117m PS2's at the time of the PS3 launch.  Averaging out at 110m-ish (although it's probably a little higher) and using 153m as the currently sold figure, the amount is probably somewhere around 28-30% by my calculations.  Not far off what he said, but it's definitely not as high as 33% either.



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NintendoPie on 25 July 2012
pezus said:
Turkish said:
SOLIDSNAKE08 said:
how many wii's sold so far in 2012?


1.5m

Around 5-6m for the year, I'd say. Absolutely horrible drop

What did you expect it to do? It's dead. Dead as roadkill. 



Immortal on 25 July 2012
bouzane said:
Immortal said:

Fair enough for the Sony supporting consoles longer point. I wasn't really comparing them, anyway. It was just an example to illustrate my point; I even mentioned the fact that PS3 is way better in that regard. That said, my point about PS3 having been weaker than PS2 in terms of sales so far being a reason for it to continue being weaker henceforth still stands. And the only the thing arguable about that is the extent to which the PS3 will be behind, really. I mean, it's not as if the PSP is doing PS2 numbers right now and PS3 is comparable to PSP launch aligned, from what I recall.
Also, while I have heard that "below $199" idea quite a few times, from what I've seen, that really isn't accurate, with the three price cuts I mentioned being fairly decent examples to prove my point.


Is the PS3 really in a similar situation as the PSP was in 2010? Personally, I really don't think so. Also, I can not speak for others but $250 is way too much money for a toy, I won't even consider a PS3 until $150.

Well, not quite, but the PS3 total at the end of 2012 will be a little more than the PSP total at the end of 2011. Obviously, PS3 next year will do better than PSP this year (I mean, quite pessimistically, it's gonna be 8m or so against the PSP which will be lucky to break 5m this year), but my comparison obviously allows for PS3 to do significantly better than the PSP since the PSP isn't getting anywhere close to 100m LT.

And, well, while your point is justified, as lots of our more rabid friends will point out, these things are much more than toys and they're willing to throw hundreds of dollars to acquire video game consoles. In this case, unlike most, the market seems to agree.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

bouzane on 25 July 2012
Immortal said:
bouzane said:
Immortal said:

Fair enough for the Sony supporting consoles longer point. I wasn't really comparing them, anyway. It was just an example to illustrate my point; I even mentioned the fact that PS3 is way better in that regard. That said, my point about PS3 having been weaker than PS2 in terms of sales so far being a reason for it to continue being weaker henceforth still stands. And the only the thing arguable about that is the extent to which the PS3 will be behind, really. I mean, it's not as if the PSP is doing PS2 numbers right now and PS3 is comparable to PSP launch aligned, from what I recall.
Also, while I have heard that "below $199" idea quite a few times, from what I've seen, that really isn't accurate, with the three price cuts I mentioned being fairly decent examples to prove my point.


Is the PS3 really in a similar situation as the PSP was in 2010? Personally, I really don't think so. Also, I can not speak for others but $250 is way too much money for a toy, I won't even consider a PS3 until $150.

Well, not quite, but the PS3 total at the end of 2012 will be a little more than the PSP total at the end of 2011. Obviously, PS3 next year will do better than PSP this year (I mean, quite pessimistically, it's gonna be 8m or so against the PSP which will be lucky to break 5m this year), but my comparison obviously allows for PS3 to do significantly better than the PSP since the PSP isn't getting anywhere close to 100m LT.

And, well, while your point is justified, as lots of our more rabid friends will point out, these things are much more than toys and they're willing to throw hundreds of dollars to acquire video game consoles. In this case, unlike most, the market seems to agree.


Are they really indicative of the general population? I like to think not :P . Also, let us not forget the developing markets of the world, regions which Sony likes to target.



Immortal on 25 July 2012
bouzane said:
Immortal said:

Well, not quite, but the PS3 total at the end of 2012 will be a little more than the PSP total at the end of 2011. Obviously, PS3 next year will do better than PSP this year (I mean, quite pessimistically, it's gonna be 8m or so against the PSP which will be lucky to break 5m this year), but my comparison obviously allows for PS3 to do significantly better than the PSP since the PSP isn't getting anywhere close to 100m LT.

And, well, while your point is justified, as lots of our more rabid friends will point out, these things are much more than toys and they're willing to throw hundreds of dollars to acquire video game consoles. In this case, unlike most, the market seems to agree.


Are they really indicative of the general population? I like to think not :P . Also, let us not forget the developing markets of the world, regions which Sony likes to target.


In most cases, they really aren't, but, as we've seen by the sales of consoles priced over $199 and the absence of demand exploding past that pricepont, I'd say that people are willing to spend that much money on toys.

The developing market is a separate issue, really, since they will probably react better to this low a price, but how much the PS2 will emulate PS3 sales in developing market is an even more complicated issue that we needn't delve into, :P.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx