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Forums - Sales - Prediction: PS3 will reach 105 million units before the Wii

 

Predictions:

Only PS3 will reach it 64 12.26%
 
Only Wii will reach it 278 53.26%
 
PS3 will reach it first 63 12.07%
 
Wii will reach it first 116 22.22%
 
Total:521
mike_intellivision on 25 July 2012

Using the PS2 post-PS3 launch as the model for PS3 post-PS4 launch has two issues:
1. PS3 was not the dominant console of its generation.
2. The global economy (ranging from Yen valuation, Global recession, and emerging markets wanting current goods).

The Wii might be able to get there, but even that is uncertain. The PS3 will NOT.

Mike from Morgantown.



      


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ManUtdFan on 25 July 2012
kowenicki said:
ManUtdFan said:
enrageorange said:

There is a better chance that the Last of Us will outsell Call of Duty Black Ops 2. In other words 0% chance seems a bit too optimistic for your prediction to come true.

The Wii will get to 105mil by the end of 2013 at the latest. The ps3 won't even end up ever getting close to that number ever. You are ridiculously overestimating the importance of emerging market sales and underestimating the importance of western sales. Yes the balance is slowly changing. No there won't be a ridiculous shift within the next 3 years...


Don't underestimate the power of playstation. It's highly likely PS3 will continue to sell quite well well into the decade, whereas Wii will become a damp squib. There's no way Wii can shift significant numbers while there is no improvement in third party support, and with the presence of next generation consoles will be good as dead in the water. 

Wii lifetime sales 110m-120m.

PS3 lifetime sales 120m+ (case in point! Brazil will like PS3 in 2020, but not the other two)

People in Brazil will be buying PS3's in 8 years time?  This stuff is pure gold, keep it comin'

So far we have that the PS3 will sell as well as the PS2 did at the back end of its life and that the PS3 will still be selling in 2020 (which actually indicates it will do better than the PS2 at the tail of its life... but no matter).

 

Wow 150m+ PS2 owners and it can't even do online! well not functionally. Online is the only reason i continue to play video games and I bet I'm not so unique in that. New games and online functionality will ensure continued healthy sales for PS3 for as long as Sony want to support it. You're also understimating the potential sales within capitalism's emerging markets. For those who have an inkling of knowledge of developing economies, their growth rates - unlike those of the west- are continuing to soar if not as much as before.  



ManUtdFan on 25 July 2012
mike_intellivision said:
Using the PS2 post-PS3 launch as the model for PS3 post-PS4 launch has two issues:
1. PS3 was not the dominant console of its generation.
2. The global economy (ranging from Yen valuation, Global recession, and emerging markets wanting current goods).

The Wii might be able to get there, but even that is uncertain. The PS3 will NOT.

Mike from Morgantown.


1. True, but you are talking past tense.

2. Yen valuation is a two-way street, affecting for better or worse sales and profitability. In fact a weaker yen will likely encourage lower prices for PS3 elsewhere which should increase global sales. 

Global recession has not affected poorer capitalist economies the same; technically they're not in recession- just experiencing slowdown.

True, emerging markets are showing preference for current goods. Good news for PS3 then, as can't see why sony will rush PS4- not before Q4 2014 at earliest. 



AaronSOLDIER on 25 July 2012

PS3 will absolutely reach 105m, I said it ages ago.

Doubt it'll be before the Wii though, unless the PS3 Slimmer sells a ton this fall.



arthurchan35 on 25 July 2012

Never gonna happen....
90 million would be max



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sepoer on 25 July 2012
small44 said:
ps2 sold 40 millions after the next gen was out.

FYI PS2 is not free pirate console.

but i think PS3 still have a chance to hit 105M. 



Dark_Lord_2008 on 25 July 2012

90 million maximum for PS3.



bouzane on 25 July 2012
Conegamer said:
Ahahaha, people seriously believe this?

No way will the PS3 sell any more than 10mil a year after this year. And it will NOT have the selling power of the PS2, because the PS2 was dominant then, and gaming has changed. It's near saturation. Only the Wii will hit it, and will hit it late 2013/early 2014.

The way I see it, PS3 will sell:

2012- 11mil (-20% YoY)
2013- 7-8mil (-28% or -35% YoY), PS4 launch
2014- 4mil (-50%ish)
2015- Minimum sales, say another 5-10mil overall

And this is being optimistic. This would leave the PS3 at around 90 mil when all is said and done. Damn respectable, but where are these other magical numbers coming from? Where's the other 15mil? That would require an entire year of 2011 sales to be added onto these numbers, and that isn't happening. The only possibility is the Slim boosts sales a bit more than expected, so 12mil this year, and add another 1mil on there. But there's still a huge shortfall.

All the Wii needs to do is sell another 9 mil LT. Expecting another 4 this year, and 2 the year after, so it'll trickle to 105mil. But no way will the PS3 get near it.


The PS3 is reaching market saturation? This statement is based on?



kitler53 on 25 July 2012

stop making sony fans look stupid...



enditall727 on 25 July 2012

I just want to see it hit 100 mill and im good

it will definitely reach 100 mill ltd