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Forums - Sales - Prediction: PS3 will reach 105 million units before the Wii

 

Predictions:

Only PS3 will reach it 64 12.26%
 
Only Wii will reach it 278 53.26%
 
PS3 will reach it first 63 12.07%
 
Wii will reach it first 116 22.22%
 
Total:521
NintendoPie on 25 July 2012

You're wrong.

Wii will reach it first. PS3 might reach it in it's lifetime but there isn't a chance of it happening before Wii gets it.



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ithis on 25 July 2012
AndrewWK said:
Seriously?

No Seriously now? We should be happy if the PS3 ever catches the 360.

No, that's pretty much given. I won't go into it (and I don't have the skills to do it) but I think that with the new models and pricing of the PS3 comming soon, the gap between the weekly sales for the PS3 and xBox360 will widen (a lot?) overall (even shrink in the US no natter what MS offers given the saturation the xBox reached in the US already). Plus, the porer markets that Sony has penetration in will mean that the PS3 will sell long after the PS4 is on the market. Total Lifetime Sales of PS3 will be larger than xBox360 in the end.



ithis on 25 July 2012
Turkish said:

Daring prediction, but I think it'll come true by 2016. Will update this thread.

Feel free to tell me what you think.


Usually, these bold predictions have some kind of analisys attached to them. Where is yours?

But No. I don't think so. Unless PS3 mark 3 is a runaway success everywhere, and not even then.



Turkish on 25 July 2012
Conegamer said:
Ahahaha, people seriously believe this?

No way will the PS3 sell any more than 10mil a year after this year. And it will NOT have the selling power of the PS2, because the PS2 was dominant then, and gaming has changed. It's near saturation. Only the Wii will hit it, and will hit it late 2013/early 2014.

The way I see it, PS3 will sell:

2012- 11mil (-20% YoY)
2013- 7-8mil (-28% or -35% YoY), PS4 launch
2014- 4mil (-50%ish)
2015- Minimum sales, say another 5-10mil overall

And this is being optimistic. This would leave the PS3 at around 90 mil when all is said and done. Damn respectable, but where are these other magical numbers coming from? Where's the other 15mil? That would require an entire year of 2011 sales to be added onto these numbers, and that isn't happening. The only possibility is the Slim boosts sales a bit more than expected, so 12mil this year, and add another 1mil on there. But there's still a huge shortfall.

All the Wii needs to do is sell another 9 mil LT. Expecting another 4 this year, and 2 the year after, so it'll trickle to 105mil. But no way will the PS3 get near it.

 

Lol. Your prediction of PS3 doing 11 million this year is even more  daring than mine.



Millenium on 25 July 2012

I think you're wrong.



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dark_gh0st_b0y on 25 July 2012

won't happen....

in 2012 the Ps3 managed to cover a difference of just 2.4m, I don't think the difference of 30m+ can be covered within the Ps3 lifetime



don't mind my username, that was more than 10 years ago, I'm a different person now, amazing how people change ^_^

Lostplanet22 on 25 July 2012

I think you will be wrong again and also think that when you create a thread like this should sum up the reasons why it will happen.



 

Wh1pL4shL1ve_007 on 25 July 2012

DAT CRACK

 

Edit: Sorry I just had to say it. Lol

 

I reccommend you turkish getting the sales of Ps2 YoY from release after the 5th-6th year to 10th anniversary then reduce it by 20-40% becuase of the Xbox 360 damage to the brand. You should get a pretty accurate picture by then. 



Yay!!!

Turkish on 25 July 2012
Lostplanet22 said:
I think you will be wrong again and also think that when you create a thread like this should sum up the reasons why it will happen.


Wrong again? When was I wrong with my predictions? I think you should read the OP and see the reasons why I think it will happen.



TWRoO on 25 July 2012
Turkish said:
Conegamer said:
Ahahaha, people seriously believe this?

No way will the PS3 sell any more than 10mil a year after this year. And it will NOT have the selling power of the PS2, because the PS2 was dominant then, and gaming has changed. It's near saturation. Only the Wii will hit it, and will hit it late 2013/early 2014.

The way I see it, PS3 will sell:

2012- 11mil (-20% YoY)
2013- 7-8mil (-28% or -35% YoY), PS4 launch
2014- 4mil (-50%ish)
2015- Minimum sales, say another 5-10mil overall

And this is being optimistic. This would leave the PS3 at around 90 mil when all is said and done. Damn respectable, but where are these other magical numbers coming from? Where's the other 15mil? That would require an entire year of 2011 sales to be added onto these numbers, and that isn't happening. The only possibility is the Slim boosts sales a bit more than expected, so 12mil this year, and add another 1mil on there. But there's still a huge shortfall.

All the Wii needs to do is sell another 9 mil LT. Expecting another 4 this year, and 2 the year after, so it'll trickle to 105mil. But no way will the PS3 get near it.

Lol. Your prediction of PS3 doing 11 million this year is even more  daring than mine.

It's not more daring than yours, but yes it is a lowball. I think without this new re-design (that is coming this year I assume?) I would be expecting PS3 to end the year around 12-12.5 million. With it (and assuming a price cut) it's probably going to fall between 13.5 & 14 million.

From then on I am expecting something like 11 million, 8 million and 4 million for 2013, 2014 and 2015 (calendar years), then maybe an additional 3-4 million from 2016 onwards, which should push it over 100 million. That's a bullish prediction in my view (but Sony are a company that loves to push for unneccessary targets, and if they go over 90 million I think they will do whatever they can to push PS3 past 100mil)

The Wii though (assuming the current figures don't need adjusting) is going to get really close (within 0.5 million) if not pass 100 million by the end of this year, and with a 2013 price cut to the $99 mark I don't see a problem for it to manage another 5 million before 2016 (actually I expect it will be dead before 2016, but it can manage the last 5 million in 2013 with a last stock deplenishing 2014 holiday season)