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TWRoO on 25 July 2012
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Turkish said:
Conegamer said:
Ahahaha, people seriously believe this?

No way will the PS3 sell any more than 10mil a year after this year. And it will NOT have the selling power of the PS2, because the PS2 was dominant then, and gaming has changed. It's near saturation. Only the Wii will hit it, and will hit it late 2013/early 2014.

The way I see it, PS3 will sell:

2012- 11mil (-20% YoY)
2013- 7-8mil (-28% or -35% YoY), PS4 launch
2014- 4mil (-50%ish)
2015- Minimum sales, say another 5-10mil overall

And this is being optimistic. This would leave the PS3 at around 90 mil when all is said and done. Damn respectable, but where are these other magical numbers coming from? Where's the other 15mil? That would require an entire year of 2011 sales to be added onto these numbers, and that isn't happening. The only possibility is the Slim boosts sales a bit more than expected, so 12mil this year, and add another 1mil on there. But there's still a huge shortfall.

All the Wii needs to do is sell another 9 mil LT. Expecting another 4 this year, and 2 the year after, so it'll trickle to 105mil. But no way will the PS3 get near it.

Lol. Your prediction of PS3 doing 11 million this year is even more  daring than mine.

It's not more daring than yours, but yes it is a lowball. I think without this new re-design (that is coming this year I assume?) I would be expecting PS3 to end the year around 12-12.5 million. With it (and assuming a price cut) it's probably going to fall between 13.5 & 14 million.

From then on I am expecting something like 11 million, 8 million and 4 million for 2013, 2014 and 2015 (calendar years), then maybe an additional 3-4 million from 2016 onwards, which should push it over 100 million. That's a bullish prediction in my view (but Sony are a company that loves to push for unneccessary targets, and if they go over 90 million I think they will do whatever they can to push PS3 past 100mil)

The Wii though (assuming the current figures don't need adjusting) is going to get really close (within 0.5 million) if not pass 100 million by the end of this year, and with a 2013 price cut to the $99 mark I don't see a problem for it to manage another 5 million before 2016 (actually I expect it will be dead before 2016, but it can manage the last 5 million in 2013 with a last stock deplenishing 2014 holiday season)