Let's look at the realistic worst case for Nintendo in the next generation, and assume the Wii U and 3DS only sell to 60% the level of Nintendo's previous generation systems. That would mean that the Wii U would only see 60 to 66 Million systems sold, and the 3DS would only see 85 to 100 Million units sold; hardly a "failure" that would require Nintendo to become a software only company.

One day Nintendo may become a software only company, but that will probably not happen in the next 10 years.

He is, at least, more realistic about it, except that i don't think Nintendo is taking steps in that direction. They're taking certain steps to pursue where Microsoft was 6 years ago (as far as a service provider, at any rate). If they're moving that way, it's at a glacial pace.

Is that so? Hm. Let's talk about what Nintendo is "on track" to do.

Their last home console was massively popular and profitable. Its affordability for both customers and developers was a major reason for its success. They appear to be taking the same approach to their next home console, keeping the hardware affordable while offering incentives for developers.

Their last handheld console was even more massively popular and profitable. Again, it was extremely affordable for customers and developers.

Sony and Microsoft's last generation of consoles were pretty much money sinks. By focusing on power over getting the most out of what power they had while keeping the hardware affordable, they have damaged the financial state of the industry.

So I'd say if everything stays "on track," 15 years from now Nintendo will be the ONLY remaining video game console manufacturer. They won't have to worry about hardware competition, they won't have to differentiate themselves from their competitors. They would primarily focus on selling their software.

Hey, Bing Gordon is right! They ARE on track to become "primarily a software company!"

As long as I don't have to pay for a bullshit online service on top of my isp bill then I don't care how slow they move to match others online capabilities.  The 3DS shows that Nintendo has it down pretty decently.  Cross game chat, blah blah blah, is all just extra bs.  Give me a friends list and ability to join them if they are playing online.  That is mainly all you need.  The only thing they screwed up for the Wii was having individual FC codes.  If it was just one system code like 3DS then the Wii would have perfect online for me.

The wiiu will be the breaking point for the next generation. The fact is that nintendo NEEDS a massive success with wiiu.

The industry will not bother with yet another wii clone, sadly nintendo has not made any investments in future proofing their console.

It's not good, they dont even have a cloud strategy...truth hurts.

Saying Nintendo is going third party after they made far more money this generation (Over 15 billion USD in profits) than the rest of the industry did combined is beyond the border of absurdity and stupidity.

Wii U does not need to be a massive success. Their software alone gives them adequte profits and 3DS is selling well in Japan, and when the 3DS XL hits it'll grow further. If anything, the 3DS is the future proofing. I believe it's already become profitable per unit sold now and probably the same for the 3DS XL.

And what about the 3DS? The thing is, most of Nintendo's games would only work on their systems

Nintendo wouldn't go third party, it's completely against their business model and ethics. When Apple, Sony or MS develop a console/smartphone they have hardware in mind. When Nintendo develops a system its all about games, how they can bring something new to the table and how that utilization will work out. Nintendo's software is made ever-so precisely in tune with the exact capabilities of their console and with a specific demographic in mind which tends to be most of the customers that buy Nintendo products.

Hahahaha I laughed so hard at this! :D

If VGC had a "Like"-button I'd click it over and over again! :D