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Forums - Sales Discussion - How long until PS3 overtakes the 360 in total sales?

MrMafoo on 15 January 2008
Nidan said:

Using the current trend, MS should be on track to move 8M Xbox360 in 08, which equates to an average of 153K/ week or around 120-135K average for a non christmas or holiday week.

  • For the PS3 to catch MS in 08 it would have to sell 296K average/week or around 250-260K average for a non christmas or holiday week.
  • For the PS3 to catch MS in 09 it would have to sell 225K average/week or around 190-200K average for a non christmas or holiday week.

Looking at this week MS will sell 133K units +/- 10K which is on target, and sony will sell 150K units +/- 10K which is off an 08 or 09 target and only 17K

Let me put it this way for Sony to catch MS, we need to out sell MS every week.


to bet MS in 08 we need to outsell them weekly by 142K ( or 120-130K/ normal week)

to bet MS in 09 we need to outsell them weekly by 71K ( or 60-65K/ normal week)

to bet MS in 10 we need to outsell them weekly by 47K ( or 39-42K/ normal week)

to bet MS in 11 we need to outsell them weekly by 35K ( or 29-32K/ normal week)

to bet MS in 12 we need to outsell them weekly by 28K ( or 21-25K/ normal week)

 

The chance that Sony will surpass MS in sales in 2008 and 2009 seams remote/low. I will make my prediction for this take over after this weeks numbers are all released, but currently i would track it to around 2013.

 (BTW,my numbers are just rough and are approximate)


Nice post. I stand by what I said however, that come sometime in late 08 or early 09, the 360 will start to fade in sales. When that happens, averaging 71k more sales over the two years will be easy. (provided my prediction comes true)

So like I said, late 09. 

 



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Username2324 on 15 January 2008
Slimebeast said:
Haha, fanboy wishful thinking. So far the PS3 has rather been an ugly baboon.

 Funny you should say that since it sold almost the exact amount the 360 did in its first year, AND the PS3 had two comptetitors to deal with, if anything is ugly, it is the 360.



jjseth on 15 January 2008
Slimebeast said:
There are too many Sonny-fans on this board. Those predictions are awful.

 Too many Sony fanboys?  Have you not looked at the number of Wii fanboys?  They easily triple if not quadruple sony fanboys.   I don't see myself as a fanboy, just a lover of great high quality games that are not "casual" which is why I have both a 360 and PS3. 



 


Get your Portable ID!

 

My pokemon brings all the nerds to the yard. And they're like, "You wanna trade cards?" Damn right, I wanna trade cards. I'll trade this, but not my charizard.

Username2324 on 15 January 2008
crumas2 said:
MrMafoo said:
For the PS3 to pass the 360 any time soon, the 360 has to stop selling (and I think at some point it will).

When that happens is when the PS3 catches it. (well, shortly there after).

I would say late 2009.

So, in 2009 when the 360 software library consists of 500+ titles and the low-end 360 will very possibly cost $200-$250, the 360 will magically stop selling?

 

How does that work?

 


 Very simply, by that time the 360 will be so underpowered for games, and developers so expert in programming for the PS3, the difference in game quality will be extrodinary.



Username2324 on 15 January 2008
Nidan said:

Using the current trend, MS should be on track to move 8M Xbox360 in 08, which equates to an average of 153K/.....

 

 I was looking at your predictions and found it curious that you predict the PS3 to close the gap to 3.5 mil this year but remain 3 mil behind all of 09... If 08 is strong enough to close within that much, shouldnt 09 easily surpass?



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Xponent on 15 January 2008

I can't see how Xbox 360 sales will suddenly stagnate like many here have suggested. Drawing a parrallel with the previous generation is a poor analogy. The original Xbox faded because Microsoft pulled its support due to an unfavourable ongoing arrangement with Nvidia and because the Xbox was too far behind PS2 too ever catch up. Neither of those factors are relevant in this case. If anything it would be more appropriate to compare PS3 with the Xbox/Gamecube than PS2.



madskillz on 15 January 2008
MrMafoo said:

madskillz said:

In order to beat the 360, Sony will have to lower its price to compete directly with the 360, or have games that are clearly superior than the 360.

You and I agree 100%. The difference is you don't think it will ever happen. I do.


@ MrMafoo

Here's the deal - I see so many similarities between the PS2-Xbox battle and the PS3/Xbox 360 fight. What I see is a role reversal. Folks would be declaring the 360 dead if the PS3 had a 7 million lead. Now, it's not the case. The 360 consistently has the most sold games, is typically favored by devs and even with the RROD drama is still selling. The PS2 had the most games sold, was favored by devs and even with the disk read error was and is still selling.

The Xbox was playing catchup the entire time against the PS2. The PS2 also had exclusives that were timed, but by the time they appeared on the Xbox, it was a moot point.

What I am saying is, it's not completely by the play book, but MS, with Japan being the exception, ripped a page out of Sony's PS2 playbook and has run it by the numbers.

Will the PS3 outsell the 360? It's possible, but will it even matter by then? The Nextbox will be here, and next-next gen gaming will have arrived and the cycle could start again.

Sheer number will put the PS3 ahead of the 360, but only when MS really doesn't care about the 360 as much, and focusing efforts on the Nextbox. 

 



leo-j on 15 January 2008

@jjseth

"I dont consider myself a fanboy"

looks at sig

sure buddy :P



 

mM
crumas2 on 15 January 2008
MrMafoo said:
crumas2 said:
MrMafoo said:
For the PS3 to pass the 360 any time soon, the 360 has to stop selling (and I think at some point it will).

When that happens is when the PS3 catches it. (well, shortly there after).

I would say late 2009.

So, in 2009 when the 360 software library consists of 500+ titles and the low-end 360 will very possibly cost $200-$250, the 360 will magically stop selling?

 

How does that work?

 


The same way the X-Box did. When you go to the store, look at your options, and walk away with something, you pick the best.


Just a guess, but here is what you might see in 2009…

  • 360 with 500+ games, PS3 with 500+ games.
  • The PS3 playing better looking games (possibly much better looking, if R&C/Uncharted are just the beginning)
  • The PS3 and the 360 costing the same
  • The PS3 with much better exclusive content (if the hype comes true about MGS, FF, GT)
  • PS3 being generally just a better piece of hardware
  • Playing HD movies on the PS3

Most everyone agrees the PS3 has two major failings. Poor gaming library, and cost. Once both of these are on par with the 360 (and as far as games, surpass it), why would you not buy a PS3?

If the above statement is all that matters with respect to sales, the x-box would have never stopped selling.


That's really weird logic.  It's like saying that everyone would look at a Samsung TV and a Sony TV in a similar price range, discover the Sony has a better contrast ratio and more HDMI inputs, and never buy a Samsung.  It doesn't work out that way in real life.  Many people will simply look at the sample HD source being displayed and say, "so they're both able to do that 1080p thing", and when the salesman says yes, they buy the one that seems to them to have the better picture (and it will be very subjective).

 

If the 360 wasn't capable of playing AAA titles such as Assassins Creed, COD4, GTA4, etc., and look very similar to the PS3 versions, then your argument might hold water.  But those games basically look the same on both platforms.

 

I think anyone who believes that the PS3 is going to have a massive library of games so spectacular that they blow away the versions on the 360 is living in fantasy land.  A small collection of those uber games, yes, but not a significant number of titles.  It's just too much work and it making one version "dramatically better" than the other means the publisher can't leverage a lot of what's done on one machine to port to the other.  Sorry, but lowest-common-denominator almost always wins in this scenario for obvious financial reasons.

 



Bodhesatva on 15 January 2008

I guess 2010, but 2009, 2011 and "never" all seem possible at this point.



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