Sony (unless they revise their figures with their upcoming qrt'ly statement) forecast to sell (ship) 11m PS3 units in '07-08 (March '07-March '08).

Now - I'm ignoring any differences that shipping may make for this (as the channel was at least partially stuffed, and it can only happen once).

(my figures may not be precise either, as I don't have time to chase down the exact figures - but they will be close).

Sony had sold approx 3.0m PS3s as of (end) March '07.

For them to reach their target of 11m sales in this fiscal year, they need to reach (approx) 14m sales by end of March '08.

...

We are now two weeks in January - and Sony have just hit 9m (worldwide) sales.

They need to sell approximately 5m PS3s in the remainder of this quarter (say 4m, if you believe they have shipped an extra 1m units than sold this year).

I figure they have around 11 weeks to reach 5m - or approx 450k/week (worldwide) from now onwards.

...

I believe PS3 sales will settle at around 130k-200k / week for this qrt (50k Europe, 70k US, 30k Japan) - and that Sony will hit (approx) 11m-11.5m sales by end March '08.

They will miss their shipment target by 2-3m.

There are no significant releases (that I know of) this qrt that will significantly boost sales - most of the big ones (MGS, GTA) will be released in the following quarter.

I don't think there is any chance of another price cut (this qrt) - although the new PS3 bundle may boost sales by 10%-20% (short term anyway).

...

Thoughts? Will Sony finally revise their forecast? 

no, and I think you are being slightly optimistic on how much the PS3 will sell weekly. I would say more like 100-140K.

@shams

Didnt you say 11m shipped, which means They need 14 million shipped to reach there target.. but you just compared consumer 9M sales to shipped sales..

 So Sony will just channel stuff

How many millions can they get retailers to buy. I was in Best Buy yesterday and there was a stack of 60 40gb PS3s on the floor.

Sony Style stores Fishyjoe, Sony Style stores

shams for once your predictions for ps3 aren't low....but now thir TOO HIGH

I would say 100 - 120K for this quarter

Well if MS can do it, then Im sure Sony can find a way.

They'll just say it was 11M LTD and call it a day.

Although, nothing stops them from overloading (M$ had almost 2.5M shipped over sold, according to VGchartz last year). Which I think would be foolish, seeing how the costs in production are falling. What's the point of producing 5M at 400 dollars, when you can make 3M at 400 and 2M at 380 and sell them for the same price? Specially the way things are going for Blu-Ray.

That's 40M. If Sony doesn't want it, any developer would love it.

He qualified it by saying assume 1 million above sold at retail.  Aka, if they have 9 million in sales, they have 10 million shipped.