For Sony to make their PS3 fiscal forecast...

[shams]

Sony (unless they revise their figures with their upcoming qrt'ly statement) forecast to sell (ship) 11m PS3 units in '07-08 (March '07-March '08).

Now - I'm ignoring any differences that shipping may make for this (as the channel was at least partially stuffed, and it can only happen once).

(my figures may not be precise either, as I don't have time to chase down the exact figures - but they will be close).

Sony had sold approx 3.0m PS3s as of (end) March '07.

For them to reach their target of 11m sales in this fiscal year, they need to reach (approx) 14m sales by end of March '08.

...

We are now two weeks in January - and Sony have just hit 9m (worldwide) sales.

They need to sell approximately 5m PS3s in the remainder of this quarter (say 4m, if you believe they have shipped an extra 1m units than sold this year).

I figure they have around 11 weeks to reach 5m - or approx 450k/week (worldwide) from now onwards.

...

I believe PS3 sales will settle at around 130k-200k / week for this qrt (50k Europe, 70k US, 30k Japan) - and that Sony will hit (approx) 11m-11.5m sales by end March '08.

They will miss their shipment target by 2-3m.

There are no significant releases (that I know of) this qrt that will significantly boost sales - most of the big ones (MGS, GTA) will be released in the following quarter.

I don't think there is any chance of another price cut (this qrt) - although the new PS3 bundle may boost sales by 10%-20% (short term anyway).

...

Thoughts? Will Sony finally revise their forecast?