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Forums - Sony - 4 things PS4 needs to win next gen

Conegamer said:
Andrespetmonkey said:
Conegamer said:
1. They wouldn't be making a profit at that, they can't afford not to. Check the link in this point, it'll break even with the specs I have in mind
2. Only 1 of those games has a chance of coming at launch, and that's the New IP.
3. It'll be hard, but the most likely.
4. Looking at the Vita, that ain't gonna happen.

I hope Sony are gonna change after their lackluster Vita launch, I really do but from current trends, it doesn't seem likely.



I did, but you've gotta remember they need to sell it to retailers and they need to make a profit, $50 is about right, so Sony would sell it for $350 to retailers, at the lowest.

Not a profit.

So let's say the retailers get £30, with my specs Sony sells it to retailers for £315/340 (2 models) and retailers sell it for £300/350, this means they'll make a small loss on one model and a small gain on the other. Both models will be making a decent profit within a year, that's totally feasible.

A small loss on each system, let alone one model is no big deal, that money is easily made back in game sales, and in todays market a lot of money will be made through services like Netflix and PS+. If there was a £50+ loss then I could see how that would put Sony in a bad position considering their financial state, but £15 loss on one model will be made back really easily.



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It needs powerful hardware. In next gen most powerful hardware will win (PS4).



Andrespetmonkey said:
Conegamer said:
Andrespetmonkey said:
Conegamer said:
1. They wouldn't be making a profit at that, they can't afford not to. Check the link in this point, it'll break even with the specs I have in mind
2. Only 1 of those games has a chance of coming at launch, and that's the New IP.
3. It'll be hard, but the most likely.
4. Looking at the Vita, that ain't gonna happen.

I hope Sony are gonna change after their lackluster Vita launch, I really do but from current trends, it doesn't seem likely.



I did, but you've gotta remember they need to sell it to retailers and they need to make a profit, $50 is about right, so Sony would sell it for $350 to retailers, at the lowest.

Not a profit.

So let's say the retailers get £30, with my specs Sony sells it to retailers for £315/340 (2 models) and retailers sell it for £300/350, this means they'll make a small loss on one model and a small gain on the other. Both models will be making a decent profit within a year, that's totally feasible.

A small loss on each system, let alone one model is no big deal, that money is easily made back in game sales, and in todays market a lot of money will be made through services like Netflix and PS+. If there was a £50+ loss then I could see how that would put Sony in a bad position considering their financial state, but £15 loss on one model will be made back really easily.

Upon reflection, no retailer would stock it were they to be only making #30 on the system. Let's look at this a bit more closely:

The 3DS currently retails at #149, the system costs #97 to build, and Nintendo are making a loss on it. Therefore, we must assume they're selling it to retailers at #90, so the retailers make #59 on the system.

If they're making only #30, they'd either have to buy very, VERY few units to test the market, i.e. no more than pre-orders, or just not stock it at all, especially after less-than-stellar sales for the Vita, retailers will be cautious.

So I'd say they'll be looking at selling it to retailers to give them a #50-60 profit per unit, so any surplus stock won't hurt their margins massively (otherwise retailers would never be able to hold sales). Count in shipping costs, VAT and import fees (admittadly I'm not strong in this area), and Sony would have to produce their console for around #240/$289 for it to be sold here for #320, which would leave it at $400 in America. 

Now, your thread says it'd cost #299/$349 to produce with these specs. So they would, infact, be potentially losing #59/$60 per unit is sold for $400 at those specs. Sony could raise the price to $500, but it wouldn't sell. So they'd have to sell at a hefty loss, or reduce the specs.

Of course, it's possible this is all wrong, but I don't think it's too off the mark. There's more to sales and business than buying the components for less than what you sell it for, and we haven't spoken about labour, R&D, controllers etc. either.

(Note- # counts as a pound symbol, it's broken on this laptop).

Nintendo could likely get the components (if rumoured specs are true) for the WiiU for $179, and the controller $29, so selling it for $299 would leave a small profit, and $249 a small loss. It's a possibilty. 



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Conegamer said:
Andrespetmonkey said:
Conegamer said:
Andrespetmonkey said:
Conegamer said:
1. They wouldn't be making a profit at that, they can't afford not to. Check the link in this point, it'll break even with the specs I have in mind
2. Only 1 of those games has a chance of coming at launch, and that's the New IP.
3. It'll be hard, but the most likely.
4. Looking at the Vita, that ain't gonna happen.

I hope Sony are gonna change after their lackluster Vita launch, I really do but from current trends, it doesn't seem likely.



I did, but you've gotta remember they need to sell it to retailers and they need to make a profit, $50 is about right, so Sony would sell it for $350 to retailers, at the lowest.

Not a profit.

So let's say the retailers get £30, with my specs Sony sells it to retailers for £315/340 (2 models) and retailers sell it for £300/350, this means they'll make a small loss on one model and a small gain on the other. Both models will be making a decent profit within a year, that's totally feasible.

A small loss on each system, let alone one model is no big deal, that money is easily made back in game sales, and in todays market a lot of money will be made through services like Netflix and PS+. If there was a £50+ loss then I could see how that would put Sony in a bad position considering their financial state, but £15 loss on one model will be made back really easily.

Upon reflection, no retailer would stock it were they to be only making #30 on the system. Let's look at this a bit more closely:

The 3DS currently retails at #149, the system costs #97 to build, and Nintendo are making a loss on it. Therefore, we must assume they're selling it to retailers at #90, so the retailers make #59 on the system.

If they're making only #30, they'd either have to buy very, VERY few units to test the market, i.e. no more than pre-orders, or just not stock it at all, especially after less-than-stellar sales for the Vita, retailers will be cautious.

So I'd say they'll be looking at selling it to retailers to give them a #50-60 profit per unit, so any surplus stock won't hurt their margins massively (otherwise retailers would never be able to hold sales). Count in shipping costs, VAT and import fees (admittadly I'm not strong in this area), and Sony would have to produce their console for around #240/$289 for it to be sold here for #320, which would leave it at $400 in America. 

Now, your thread says it'd cost #299/$349 to produce with these specs. So they would, infact, be potentially losing #59/$60 per unit is sold for $400 at those specs. Sony could raise the price to $500, but it wouldn't sell. So they'd have to sell at a hefty loss, or reduce the specs.

Of course, it's possible this is all wrong, but I don't think it's too off the mark. There's more to sales and business than buying the components for less than what you sell it for, and we haven't spoken about labour, R&D, controllers etc. either.

(Note- # counts as a pound symbol, it's broken on this laptop).

Nintendo could likely get the components (if rumoured specs are true) for the WiiU for $179, and the controller $29, so selling it for $299 would leave a small profit, and $249 a small loss. It's a possibilty. 

Last I checked retailers don't make a profit on systems. Sony could easily pull a small profit at $400.



Conegamer said:
Andrespetmonkey said:
Conegamer said:
Andrespetmonkey said:
Conegamer said:
1. They wouldn't be making a profit at that, they can't afford not to. Check the link in this point, it'll break even with the specs I have in mind
2. Only 1 of those games has a chance of coming at launch, and that's the New IP.
3. It'll be hard, but the most likely.
4. Looking at the Vita, that ain't gonna happen.

I hope Sony are gonna change after their lackluster Vita launch, I really do but from current trends, it doesn't seem likely.



I did, but you've gotta remember they need to sell it to retailers and they need to make a profit, $50 is about right, so Sony would sell it for $350 to retailers, at the lowest.

Not a profit.

So let's say the retailers get £30, with my specs Sony sells it to retailers for £315/340 (2 models) and retailers sell it for £300/350, this means they'll make a small loss on one model and a small gain on the other. Both models will be making a decent profit within a year, that's totally feasible.

A small loss on each system, let alone one model is no big deal, that money is easily made back in game sales, and in todays market a lot of money will be made through services like Netflix and PS+. If there was a £50+ loss then I could see how that would put Sony in a bad position considering their financial state, but £15 loss on one model will be made back really easily.

Upon reflection, no retailer would stock it were they to be only making #30 on the system. Let's look at this a bit more closely:

The 3DS currently retails at #149, the system costs #97 to build,

and Nintendo are making a loss on it. Therefore, we must assume they're selling it to retailers at #90, so the retailers make #59 on the system.

Are you sure? That could be just how much the parts cost, a lot of these lists aren't totally accurate. If Nintendo officially said this then it's fine. If it is just the parts list, then it's missing quite a few costs... shipping, manufacturing, assembly, I'm so sure about tax and any cut that goes to the manufacturer of the CPU/GPU but I imagine they add to the coss as well. This kinda puts the rest of your post on shaky foundations, but I'll read on anyway.

If they're making only #30, they'd either have to buy very, VERY few units to test the market, i.e. no more than pre-orders, or just not stock it at all, especially after less-than-stellar sales for the Vita, retailers will be cautious.

So I'd say they'll be looking at selling it to retailers to give them a #50-60 profit per unit, so any surplus stock won't hurt their margins massively (otherwise retailers would never be able to hold sales). Count in shipping costs, VAT and import fees (admittadly I'm not strong in this area), and Sony would have to produce their console for around #240/$289 for it to be sold here for #320, which would leave it at $400 in America.

More like $350, more some reason usa gets things crazily cheaper, at least in this industry. E.g. The 3DS cost £230 but $250 at launch, which is crazy considering directly converting £230 to usd gets you over $350, PSV has very similar pricing.

Now, your thread says it'd cost #299/$349 to produce with these specs. So they would, infact, be potentially losing #59/$60 per unit is sold for $400 at those specs. Sony could raise the price to $500, but it wouldn't sell. So they'd have to sell at a hefty loss, or reduce the specs.

Nope, it'd cost £285/310 (estimate) if you were referring to manufacturing. I don't quite understand the math in the other 2 sentences, it costs $349 to produce, sold at $400? Where's the $60 loss coming from? Retailers cut? That would mean the retailer gets $110, I really don't think that's likely (go back to my first para if you're gonna use the 3DS as an example)

Of course, it's possible this is all wrong, but I don't think it's too off the mark. There's more to sales and business than buying the components for less than what you sell it for, and we haven't spoken about labour, R&D, controllers etc. either.

(Note- # counts as a pound symbol, it's broken on this laptop).

Nintendo could likely get the components (if rumoured specs are true) for the WiiU for $179, and the controller $29, so selling it for $299 would leave a small profit, and $249 a small loss. It's a possibilty. 





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@ Conegamer

Why did you ignore my reply to you? It's the 26th post in this thread.



Jay520 said:
Khuutra said:
Uncharted isn't a system seller.


What makes you believe this? Uncharted has never had a chance to move any consoles as it didn't get 'big' until Uncharted 2. And even Uncharted 2 didn't sell as fast as Uncharted 3. So, by the time, Uncharted was good enough to be a system seller, it was already 3-4 years into the PS3's life cycle & the userbase was already there.

I'd say any sequel to a game that sells 6m+ will move consoles when released early enough in the console's life cycle.

A lot of people say Metal Gear Solid 4 was a system seller, and Uncharted is bigger than that.

With a bit of optimism, one could say Uncharted 4 could be a 7-8 million seller. Though, to be safe, lets say it sells just over 6m. I don't see how that's not a system seller.

Tell me how well Golden Abyss has done

And try not ot move the goalposts on me



Khuutra said:
Jay520 said:
Khuutra said:
Uncharted isn't a system seller.


What makes you believe this? Uncharted has never had a chance to move any consoles as it didn't get 'big' until Uncharted 2. And even Uncharted 2 didn't sell as fast as Uncharted 3. So, by the time, Uncharted was good enough to be a system seller, it was already 3-4 years into the PS3's life cycle & the userbase was already there.

I'd say any sequel to a game that sells 6m+ will move consoles when released early enough in the console's life cycle.

A lot of people say Metal Gear Solid 4 was a system seller, and Uncharted is bigger than that.

With a bit of optimism, one could say Uncharted 4 could be a 7-8 million seller. Though, to be safe, lets say it sells just over 6m. I don't see how that's not a system seller.

Tell me how well Golden Abyss has done

And try not ot move the goalposts on me



Before I respond, let me know one thing. Is that your sole reasoning? Golden Abyss?

Jay520 said:
Khuutra said:

Tell me how well Golden Abyss has done

And try not ot move the goalposts on me


Is that your sole reasoning? Golden Abyss?

It's a big factor, and shows that Uncharted's brand isn't enough to move new hardware.

I can go into more, but it would take much more effort than pointing at UGA and grunting.



Khuutra said:
Jay520 said:
Khuutra said:

Tell me how well Golden Abyss has done

And try not ot move the goalposts on me


Is that your sole reasoning? Golden Abyss?

It's a big factor, and shows that Uncharted's brand isn't enough to move new hardware.

I can go into more, but it would take much more effort than pointing at UGA and grunting.



Okay, that's a weak reason.

1.) The Uncharted IP, like most console IPs, is meant for consoles. People aren't going to buy a portable FOR Uncharted when there is a superior version on the PS3. A big game on home consoles wouldn't necessarily be a big game on portables. I'd go out on a limb and say that even CoD will see 'low' sales. Same for Gran Turismo. People just aren't going to buy it when there's a better alternative. Really, this has been discussed a lot already. Portables don't do well with console-suited games, nor do console-suited games do well on portables.

2.) Golden Abyss simply isn't as good as Naughty Dog's games. It's metascore is 80. That's almost a C-level game. A franchise can have system-selling power, but that doesn't mean that the lower-quality titles will move consoles.

3.) The Vita simply isn't attractive. The console is currently over-priced (from a consumers perspective) AND it has little to no known games AND Sony's marketing for it has been terrible. Uncharted is the only moderately large IP on the Vita. Aside from maybe 2D Mario, no IP is so big that it can do well on an expensive consoles with a lack of games & marketing. The console has to at least have a few other incentives in games and/or price. I said Uncharted was a system-seller, not a miracle-maker.

And even with these three things considered, Uncharted: GA is still the best selling Vita game by a wide margin, with a 25% attach rate, not including digital purchases. Who's to say it's not a large factor for a large majority of Vita owners?