sperrico87 said:
Metrium said: There is no way in my mind that the 3ds will end up selling 150million units and Wii U 96million. With the 3ds, there is now allot more competition from mobiles. For Wii U, the main reason the Wii was so successfull is because it was by far the cheapest system and it was the only system at the time that could attract casual gamers. Wii U will be much more expansive, granted that it may be the cheapest system once again once the ps4 and Xbox3 launch, but M$ and Sony made it pretty clear that they will also go after casual gamers, stealing some of their market (especially M$ cause Sony is rly failing at it atm) That being said, I don't think in anyway that Nintendo is doomed. It will do rly good, I predict around 60 million to possibly 75 million for Wii U, and probably 85 to 90 million for 3DS. Both will be big success, it's just that Wii and DS were phenomenal success that will be probably impossible to beat now in the current state of this industry. |
3DS' ceiling is probably around 60-70 million. Look at how badly it's selling in NA/Europe in the off-season, even with Kid Icarus and Mario Tennis being out. NA is supposed to be 3x bigger than Japan with Nintendo sales, and we're doing worse than Japan right now. I think smartphone/ tablets have hurt Nintendo in NA a lot more than anywhere else, and I think Nintendo's only hope to even reach 70 million within four years is to pump out as many AAA franchise games as possible. That's all they can do at this point. Handheld market is completely different than it was in 2004 when DS launched.
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You may be right. I know that the handheld market is different now, that is why I said the 3ds wont reach 150million, but I think your 60-70million is a little to low IMO. The thing is that the DS lasted 7 years (even more since today there is sill game released for it). I could see the 3DS last 7 years like it's predecessor did, especially because of little things like the fact that it can receive system updates and that developers can use bigger cardridges if they need to. It is already known as a cheap system at 169,99 and in 7 years the price can only go down (unless there is a massive redesign and still I don't see a redesign model costing more than 189$ IMO). In its first year it sold around 15million units (despite the terrible terrible start), that is more than the DS and the DS's first year wasnt even it's best so I think the 3DS can continue selling atleast 15million units a year for atleast a other 2/3 years, thats 60million right there in only 4years.
With the the 3DS being cheap and becoming cheaper, I think it will be known as a system that anyone can/should buy, like the DS. Every parents didnt mind buying the system for their kids, I even met a family that had 3 kids and 5DSs (one for every kid and 2 for both parents). I know it is not selling as well right now in NA, but I think It's just a matter of time for the library to have a game for everyone. Once the library is big enough almost everyone will end up jumping the fence to buy that system cause it is already so cheap. Also since the begining of 2012, NA did'nt see alot of big new games other than KI:U, compared to Japan who had alot of big games, some that are clearly meant for japan other that americans are beging to play (fire emblem, Kingdom Heart)
Dont get me wrong, I agree that things are different right now and that there is no way it could reach 150 or even 100 million. But I think it could reach 80 to 90mil. Also if you are right that would mean that the 3DS would sell less than the PSP, and to be honest I'm having a terribly hard time imagining the 3DS doing worst than the PSP. (not that the psp did'nt do good, but more because I think Nintendo is doing almost everything right for the 3DS while I think Sony was doing everything wrong for the psp)