That's why I think the Wii U will see the same level of success as the Gamecube. I don't mean the same sales, I mean the same proportional success to its competitors. MS and Sony are going to continue to fight over the majority of market share and Nintendo, without it's soccer moms, will have a hard time breaking into that struggle. We could see a an even split between the three, but I don't expect to see Nintendo in 1st place next gen.

I agree, it will be very difficult to repeat the success of the Wii to non-gamers.  But with a tablet interface and the right games, they can still do very well for themselves if they play their cards right.

The problem with your Gamecube comparison though, is that it was eclipsed 7 to 1 by the market leading console, the PS2.  I certainly don't see WiiU losing anywhere near that margin, even if Nintendo is relegated to third place.  The Gamecube was not the successor to a hugely popular console, it had nothing to differentiate itself from the competition and it launched a year after PS2 had a substantial lead.  None of these will be obstacles for WiiU.

Again I don't think it matters, combine the MS and Sony fan bases and you have see the same competition. Sure there isn't one single crazy leader like the PS2, but Nintendo has to compete with two very strong alternatives to the Wii U, both of which are on the market right now. Those gamers are very likely to just wait for the Next Xbox and PS4.

It definitely matters:

The PS3 and 360 both enjoyed a large majority of hit games on the market that weren’t possible on the Wii.  The WiiU will not have this issue, plus it will feature all of Nintendo's games in addition to new experiences with the controller.

The NES was the market leader because it was the first major console after the crash of the industry and Nintendo used shady licensing deals to keep 3rd party games off it's competition, namely the Sega Master System. The Genesis split the market and Nintendo had to claw it's way back to the lead but the SNES didn't control the market like the NES did.

The SNES launched a full 2 years after the Sega Genesis... and still outsold it.  Again, WiiU will not be facing the same issue with its 8th gen competition, and there is easily a 15m - 20m strong Nintendo fan base that will garner sales for the system against the remainder of the 7th gen consoles.

That's why Nintendo had to shake things up with the Wii. They couldn't afford to create the most advanced gaming tech to win over all the non-Nintendo fan gamers so they instead created a system based on motion controls and convinced everyone who doesn't play games to buy Wii Sports and Wii Fit.

Not true.  Nintendo could have easily afforded to go the Gamecube route and largely match the competition on tech (they had billions in the bank), but they knew better and took the smarter route from a business standpoint.

It worked, but those people aren't gamers and they don't want new systems, the Wii is the first and last console they will ever buy.

This is a pretty closed-minded point of view.  People bought the Wii first and foremost because it was fun.  People didn’t suddenly stop seeking fun experiences.  Again, it relies on Nintendo’s ability to deliver something the market will want.  If they do, they’ll bite, and the WiiU won’t be $299 forever.  The WiiU may not see the instantaneous craze that the Wii enjoyed, but conversely, it will be equipped to age better.

Next gen is going to be all about the gamer. Fans will stick with the console that has the exclusives they want. Everyone else is up for grabs.

@underlined:  my point exactly...

The tablet interface is going to be an afterthought for 3rd party devs. They are going to port twin stick games to the Wii U controller and move some of the game's UI to the controller.

Even if the touch screen does end up being an afterthought for 3rd parties, WiiU can easily accommodate their games in the traditional sense, while Nintendo’s games differentiate it from the competition.  It’s pretty much capable of supporting any play type, including Wii content as all of those peripherals are supported as well.  Win, win.

Nintendo is going to do some cool stuff, but unlike the Wii Mote I don't think people are going to go crazy for it. Most of us have touch screen phones and stuff like Angry Birds has already become common place. It's not going to be the kind of gimmick that gets people to jump on board the hype train like the Wii Mote did.

You don’t know that.  There are likely many more experiences to be had with what Nintendo is doing than just Angry Birds on your WiiU controller.  The system can stream a full game to your controller while still displaying on the TV giving it an interaction that we’ve never seen before.

The PS2 of this generation is a combination of the Xbox 360 and the PS3. You might think it's the Wii because of all it's hardware sales, but far too many of those Wii's are sitting in grandparents livings rooms collecting dust with nothing more than it's pack in game to keep it company.

Not exactly.  Grandparents, soccer moms, and Nintendo fans aren’t the only ones who bought Wiis.  There are many of those people who are not platform loyal who did as well, and many of these people were also owners of the PS2.  They may own a 360 or a PS3 as well, which brings up another point.  Just because the PS3 and 360 have a combined 125m+ consoles sold doesn’t mean that 125m individual customers bought quite that many.  Many people have both of the HD twins (possibly a Wii too).  The Wii managed to move 95m+ to individual customers, did so without the majority of games on the market, and was launched a year behind the 360 to boot.  Again, WiiU will have these majority games and will be launching first.  If anything, Nintendo could potentially be pitting Microsoft and Sony against each other all over again, as they are both very similar and will likely both be launching directly against each other…

The Wii is an anomaly. The N64 and the Gamecube were primarily owned by Nintendo fans/Core gamers. The Wii on the other hand had a huge non-gamer user base. Mario Kart Wii was heavily bundled and bought by soccer moms who probably just wanted Wii Sports and Wii Fit.

Mario Kart Wii was bundled, but the vast majority of its sales didn't come from that.  So the soccer moms have already bought a Wii for Wii Sports, Wii Fit and now Mario Kart.  Let's not forget NSMB Wii as well.  Face it, the soccer moms you seem to be hung up on are but one demographic that bought the Wii... certainly not the only one.

No touch screen gimmick is going to trick those soccer moms to upgrade the system they either don't use or think is all they will ever need. The people who had never played a video game before the Wii are not gamers and I don't believe they will ever play another game on any platform. The Wii is a fluke, and it's a fluke I don't think will repeat. At least not untill true virtual reality gets invented, then I can see non-gamers jumping in again.

Your responses are beginning to become desperate.  Whether or not the WiiU can repeat the success of the Wii, there is still a good chance that Nintendo can offer fun experiences with its new controller, particularly where a family experience is concerned as I mentioned in an earlier post.  Touch interfaces are incredibly intuitive as well.  You are relegating fun experiences to gimmicks as opposed to seeing them for what they are:  Fun experiences.  If Nintendo can deliver, the WiiU's sales will show it.  If they don't, they won't.  And everybody was a non-gamer at some point.  Saying that the Wii and virtual reality are the only instances where a game system can become a mass-market hit seller is absurd.

My point is without soccer moms and their like the Wii U will be like past Nintendo consoles, not the Wii. Meaning it will do fine, but not gangbusters.

Here we go with the soccer moms again... why do you think they and their like bought the Wii in the first place?  Besides being affordable, it was also, most importantly, FUN.  If the games for the Wii weren't fun, do you really think these people would have bought it just because it featured motion controllers?!

The N64 massively lacked 3rd party support because of the cartridge format.  The Gamecube fell in line too much with its competition and did not differentiate itself at all.  Both were late to market and neither even had 2D Mario games, which is Nintendo's iconic franchise and which always sell well.  Nintendo made a lot of mistakes with these systems and the sales show it.  Once again, it's quality software that will sell WiiU; and other very important factors such as a uniqueness, price, and launch timing are on its side as well.

Nintendo fans will stay where they are and MS/Sony fans will stay where they are.

Finally, something I can largely agree with.  However, I already addressed this:  Nintendo doesn't need to focus on courting the majority of MS/Sony loyal core fans.

... I think those without brand loyalty will stay where they are too and not cause much of a difference. Unfortunately for the Wii U, MS and Sony have people addicted to their gamer scores and trophies. Even if they have no deep seeded loyalty to a company they aren't going to buy a Wii U port of a game they can bolster their achievement points on Xbox 360.

If WiiU does become popular, the majority of people with no brand loyalty are not going to pass up the next big thing for gamer scores and trophies (those would be the Microsoft and Sony fans).  And who's to say that Nintendo won't deliver similar types of achievements, or something even better?  Nintendo could easily attract these majority consumers; same way Sony did with the PS/PS2, same way Microsoft did with the 360.  Why?  Because they aren't brand loyal.

You clearly want to believe Nintendo can do anything.

That's because they can, including fail.  But it's much of your reasoning that's so easily refutable.  I'm not claiming WiiU will have the outrageous success of the Wii.  However, you seem to believe that they are incapable of enticing any users they had before that aren't Nintendo fans because those people bit with the Wii and are now done playing games forever until we get holodecks...

Furthermore, you assume that the non-loyal gamers will not give WiiU the time of day, and that its userbase will solely be made up of only the userbase they had in an era where they made a lot of blatant mistakes.  If they were repeating exactly what they did with the Gamecube, I would agree with you, but clearly it's a different situation on many important levels and hopefully you at least realize that by now...

Either way, your argument will look silly. It also doesn't help that your short response to archbrix contains statements that show that you either didn't read his post or that your reading comprehension isn't up to snuff.