Probable to means there is a good chance they are coming, so I wouldnt consider those games probable. Maybe, which is about 50/50 IMHO

The difference is that Nintendo franchises are mostly at the height of their influence, or at least in a good place (Metroid, Zelda, and StarFox have somewhat fallen from grace, but there's nothing to say they can't come back), whereas Sonic, for instance, had gone for an entire generation without a proper new game by the time Adventure rolled around in 1999. Even taking up the idea that Sonic was a *real* rival for 2D Mario at one point, the whole franchise had drastically lost appeal through the mismanagement of the Saturn era.

I can't say without a price. But its confirmed games do little to instill confidence, what with them being late ports and all.

You seem to think I'm claiming the Wii U will fail like the Dreamcast. That was never my point. Sega was on the edge before the Dreamcast launched and clearly Nintendo is not. My comparisons are not to show the inevitable death of the Wii U or Nintendo as a console maker. My point has only been that the success the Wii saw will almost certainly not follow the Wii U.In my opinion the Wii U will do fine, but see only the same level of success as the Gamecube.

I just don't believe soccer moms or the rest of the Wii  first time console buyers, who are still not "gamers", will buy any next gen system. They were the reason the Wii was the market leader you're talking about. Without them Nintendo only has it's fanbase just like the Dreamcast did. It may be a larger fanbase, but Nintendo needs more than that.

Yes, the Wii U will have stellar 3rd party support, but what is going to convince Xbox 360 and PS3 owners to buy a Wii U if they can play those same 3rd party games on their current gen systems? These are the same gamers that were happy without Mario/Zelda this whole generation while they played Halo/MGS. I'm looking forward to a HD Zelda, but are Halo and God of Wars fans?

As for the controller touch screen and streaming capability. I just don't see that being a huge deal. It might be necessary for 1st party games, but multiplatform games won't be doing anything revolutionary with it unless all next gen platforms have similar devices. And that's the problem. Other than Nintendo fans gamers on the other consoles are spoiled for content. There is literally too many games to play on the Xbox 360 and PS3. Nintendo needs a new system, but are anyone other than Nintendo fans asking for one? Things may be different next year when MS and Sony start to hype up their next gen offerings, but around the time the Wii U launches the Xbox 360 is getting HALO FREAKING 4 and PS3 is getting The last of Us. Then there's all the 3rd party stuff like Assassin's Creed, COD, etc.

I'm looking forward to the Wii U. But not because of the controller, or the 3rd party support. I'm going to buy a Wii U for the same reason I have a Wii. I love Nintendo games. I own 1st party Wii games almost exclusively, but I can't say the same about my other consoles. As a fan I go where my favorite games are, just like everyone else. The problem is everyone else seems to be a fan of Call of Duty and Assassin's Creed of which they already have machines to play those games on, machines with exclusives of their own.

The thing is, we barely know anything at all lol. That Wii U reveal during E3 was not very well executed and left many people asking questions. Nintendo even admitted it themselves lol.

OK, point taken @above.

We'll have to agree to disagree on some points, but I'll meet you half way on others:

I certainly don't expect the majority of PS360 owners to run out and buy WiiU just for 3rd party games that look a bit better and run smoother.  But consider that many HD twins owners, like many PS2 owners, are not brand loyal and go where the hype is.  These are the customers Nintendo needs to appeal to, not so much the hardcore Halo and God of War fans.  And while a person buying WiiU won't re-buy Batman AC that they already played a year ago, they might buy all future 3rd party games on their new console, similar to how new blu-ray player owners won't re-buy their entire movie library, but purchase all future content on blu-ray.

As far as the "soccer mom" point and the "new controller phenomenon" point, I believe they are related.  Grandparents who purchased the Wii aren't going to care anything about 1080p HD game graphics, but if Nintendo can create compelling games using the tablet that are family friendly experiences, they stand a much better chance at grabbing that market again.  This is where they really must think outside the box and come up with things similar to what they had playable at E3, but even better; picture the kids and mom playing a game with their Wii remotes while dad directly affects the tv display with the touch screen.  And they need to include this kind of software with the system.  Point being that they need games that do for the tablet controller what Wii Sports did for the Wii remote.  And remember, tablets and touch interfaces are "in" right now.  Sales (and possibly market reactions from Sony and Microsoft) will ultimately show if Nintendo was indeed successful.

The one point I am in major disagreeance with you on is that WiiU will only see the success of the Gamecube.  If you mean mainly only appealing to Nintendo fans, well, that remains to be seen.  But if you mean only 21m+ units sold lifetime, I can't imagine any of the big three selling that little ever again unless they royally screw up...

Based on what we know it will not sell anything because we don't know anything.

6-10.
Because I love Nintendo and I'm very optimistic. :)
But also because we're talking about a 299$-299€ price.
If that will be the real price, this console will sell like crazy.

It should sell 2M to early adopting Nintendo fans alone during that time - as any Nintendo system would - so I see no problem in doing double that amount if the launch lineup is semi-decent.

I think it will be delayed untill it has a strong first party title to launch with, but as theyve never announced a launch date this would be hard to judge if it was internally delayed, if it misses a 2012 launch i think we can saftly say it was delayed but, i think they will do everything to get out just before xmas