I like your optimism about the Wii U, archbrix.

I´m hoping for a new 2D Mario available at launch, though I think it´s unlikely.

Looking at your sig, I wonder if Bioshock Infinite will be on the Wii U as well (or has it been confirmed and I missed the announcement?).

whats up with the game list??? Smash Bros wont be out anytime soon so is kind of irrelevant to the discussion, Zelda is the same thing, wont be out by launch. Tekken, Metro and Aliens should be in definite list, could have sworn those were confirmed. GTa5, RE, how are they probable?? I didnt get any info that they would be released on Wii U, not even a rumor. They should be maybe at best

According the official website, so far there are no plans for a WiiU version, which makes me want to cry.  However, Ken Levine is fond of WiiU, so here's hoping.

You make good points, I'll respond to them in order:

"Nintendo is launching a new system after coming off of great success with its predecessor; Sega wasn't."

The Sega Saturn did very well in Japan and did decently elsewhere. It was not the abysmal failure many think it was.

"Nintendo's finances are doing great; Sega's weren't."

That's has nothing to do with the consumer. People don't buy a console becuase of the strangth of it's companies finances.

"Nintendo's first party franchises are leagues more successful than Sega's."

Nintendo fans love Nintendo games no more than Sega fans did leading up to Dreamcast. Die hard fans aren't the problem, it's getting everyone else to jump on board that's difficult. I happen to be a Nintendo fan and I'm still a Sega fan just like I was leading up to the Dreamcast. I thought the Dreamcast was going to kill the competition, but my eyes where blinded by my fandom. I'm seeing much of the same coming from the Wii U that I failed to see in the spectacular Dreamcast.

"Nintendo is specifically courting 3rd parties with blockbuster games, such as GTA.  Sega was specifically missing one of the biggest 3rd party games at the time, Madden, and was in fact competing directly against it with their own pigskin offering."

That's true, however all those 3rd party games the Wii U will have will be available on the Xbox 360s and PS3s already sitting in peoples homes. Any slight upgrades the Wii U might offer may not be enough to sway people into buying a whole new console to play the same 3rd party games they can already play on their current machines.

"Nintendo's WiiU offers a new way to play with its controller; Sega's Dreamcast didn't."

The Dreamcast had many ground breaking features that gave us new ways to play games.

1. The VMU alowed games to display info on the controller, (much like the Wii U will), as well as play mini-games away from the console, (again muc like the Wii U is expected to do).

2. The built in modem and free online gaming was unheard of at the time and paved the way for networks like Xbox Live and PSN.

3. The GD-Rom held way more data than the standard CD-Roms of the time, although the PS2's DVD did become the new standard.

"Nintendo's system is backward compatible; Sega's wasn't."

I love backwards compatiblility and I wish all systems where fully compatible with all their previous consoles. But it's really not that big of a deal. It helps convince some people to trade in their systems becuase they can keep their games and play them on the new one. But it's really just the die hard fans that will use backwards compatibility and they're going to buy the new system regardless.

"And Nintendo doesn't have a clear-cut market leading competitor waiting in the wings to inevitably eclipse it like Sega did with Playstation 2."

When the Dreamcast launched the PS2 was nothing but a rumor. It wasn't untill the following E3 that Sony made all the promises that got people to so excited. The PS2 never lived up to those promises, but the damage to the Dreamcast was already done. People chose to wait for the PS2 rather than enjoy the killer games on the Dreamcast. The Wii U will be the first out of the gate, but Microsoft and Sony aren't stupid, they are going to leak info, make promises, and start the hype train so that people may get so excited for their systems that Nintendo fans will be left wondering why they're the only ones enjoying the next gen. Just like I and all the rest of the Sega fans couldn't understand why people were ignoring the splendor of the Dreamcast.

----

Look, I want Nintendo to be successful so I can keep playing Mario, Zelda, and Metroid games. I wanted Sega to be successful so I could keep playing Sonic, Virtua Fighter, Panzer Dragoon, etc. etc. With how well the Wii sold it would seem that Nintendo has an incredibly large fanbase who must just be frothing at the mouth for a new system. But, I think what made the Wii so successful was Wii Sports and Wii Fit. People who would never normally buy a video game machine thought the motion controls where fun, but never bought another game after playing Wii Sports. Soccor Mom's bought Wii Fit to get fit, but never intended to do anything else with it untill they found out they could watch Netflix on the Wii instead of balance on a board.

My point is just that those people, grandmas and soccor moms, they don't want a Wii U. That leaves Nintendo with it's core fans and the uneasy task of convincing people to switch from Xbox 360 and PS3 to the Wii U. All I'm saying is I see that as extremely difficult just like Sega found out with the Dreamcast. Not impossible, just difficult.

I agreed with parts/most of your other answers, but felt the need to give those two points.

I'm thinking 2 or 3 million. You've got your Nintendo fanatics, a casual title like Wii Sports to take advantage of controller, a hardcore Nintendo game or two, including Retro's project, and a lot of 3rd party support. However, you won't have the WOW factor of the Wii. Though casuals might mistakenly buy it thinking the controller is a tablet.

1.  The Saturn only performed (somewhat) well in Japan.  The Wii has sold more units in Japan alone than the Saturn sold WW in its entire life.  It's ludicrous to compare the success of the two.  Just as important to consider is the selling power of the two brand names as console makers; Nintendo now dwarfs Sega then.

2.  It's relevant because Nintendo has the necessary funds for advertising, 3rd party incentives, R&D, etc.  Sega did not.

3.  I loved many of Sega's IPs as well (and I own a DC), but the simple fact remains:  Mario alone has more selling power in the market than all of Sega's IPs combined.

4.  It's true that we don't know how well WiiU's 3rd party offerings will fare, but considering that the console is incredibly easy to port to, and again, Nintendo has the finances to offer incentives to 3rd parties, there is little risk to these companies to provide WiiU versions of their games. 

5.  The Dreamcast's VMU was hardly a focal point for potential buyers, nor was it a game changer (pardon the pun) in any way.  The other features of the DC you mention are another topic all together; the touch screen and full game display of the controller and streaming ability of the system are what I was referring to.

6.  Backwards compatibility is always a plus; and the fact that all of the Wii peripherals that people have grown accustomed to (and spent a fortune on) are supported is a strong point.  It's true, however, that the "soccer mom" Wii crowd won't be picking up the system for $299, however it won't be that price forever...

7.  Sure, Microsoft and Sony will do their part to sway attention away from WiiU; it's only good business.  However the point I was making was that Sony was the undeniable market leader at the time, and we all knew PS2 was coming.  I remember EGM having an article months before DC launched stating that "PS2 can push 75m polys!"  Flash forward to the present day and there is no undeniable market leader.  Arguably, many would say if anything, it's Nintendo...

Bottom line:  Worst case scenario for Nintendo, even if NeXtBox and PS4 were to arrive and eclipse WiiU, it will still outperform the Dreamcast by a very large margin and almost certainly still be a profitable endeavor for Nintendo in the end.  Therefore, comparing it to the Dreamcast in its purest sense is inaccurate.

It'll do well, but it won't live up Wii sales, so therefore Nintendo and everyone else will go crazy and say it's terrible??

Can't think where I've heard that before ...

Since it might be the console with the lowest power for next gen it might be a hard sell for the hardcore gamer, especially with a focus on a tablet controller. The casual crowd might also be hard to convert since they might be content with their wii....or disappointed because they don't use them. But maybe the new tech will antic them yet again. I still think it will sell...at least I hope it does, nintendo can't handle a console flop right now. Haven't decided if I have any interest in it. Best of luck to them.

Pro tip: MAYBE=PROBABLE LIST/NOT CONFIRMED/SPECULATED