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Forums - Nintendo - How do you think the Wii U will do its first 3 months? Based on what we know now.

 

Sales prediction from launch- end of 2012?

1-2 million units 57 17.12%
 
2-4 million units 93 27.93%
 
4-6 million units 87 26.13%
 
6-10 million units 44 13.21%
 
other 5 1.50%
 
Delayed 5 1.50%
 
Cancelled 9 2.70%
 
See Results 30 9.01%
 
Total:330
milkyjoe on 02 March 2012

We're not doing well on Nintendo Bingo here. It took 18 posts for 'next Dreamcast' to come up. It never took that long when speculating about the Wii in 2006.

Anyway, there's too many factors that haven't been identified yet to make any firm prediction, but like most other people I'll say if they get the launch date, the launch price, and the launch lineup right, then they could feasibly sell as many as they can make. If they only get 2/3 (or worse), then their ability to do so dwindles considerably.



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Play4Fun on 02 March 2012
Xenostar said:
I think it will be delayed untill it has a strong first party title to launch with, but as theyve never announced a launch date this would be hard to judge if it was internally delayed, if it misses a 2012 launch i think we can saftly say it was delayed but, i think they will do everything to get out just before xmas


Did I miss a leak somewhere that said Nintendo don't have first party games ready for Wii launch?

If not, where are you getting all this?..



PlaystaionGamer on 02 March 2012

it won't be £179 in the Uk i can tell you that! I'm thinking more £299



Gamerace on 02 March 2012

We don't know enough as yet. It'll largely depend on whatever Wii____ title it launches with.

We know SSB won't make launch window which only leaves Pikmin 3 confirmed from Nintendo which is no system seller.

3rd party titles are almost all also available on existing HD systems as well, so they won't produce any console sells either.

Wii U will sell first week of course to dedicated Nintendo Fans and technophiles but it's beyond that market which is in question. Right now there is no compelling reason to own one (Vita is in a similar situation although Vita is a gorgeous piece of tech you want to justify, but can't - yet anyway).

Wii wasn't a massive seller because of Zelda:TP or Nintendo or motion controls in and of themselves, it sold because of how Wii Sports used motion controls to bring games back to the masses. Everyone from 4 to 94 'got it' - this was something they could play. It made us all want to play games in all new ways.

Currently Wii U has no such game and no such hook. Furthermore, considering how many people already have a touch screen device I'm clueless as to what game Nintendo could even make that could grab people's imagination like Wii Sports did (Or Wii Fit, Brain Age or Nintendogs) - that people are not already playing on Apple/Android devices to an extent already.

It's a system that, from what we know so far, is not innovative enough for the casual and not powerful enough for the core (who already own 1 or 2 HD systems of comparable power). As such, it's sales potential is limited. However, Nintendo if anyone, has the capability to surprise and innovate like few others. So we'll see what they show at E3 and then it may be a very different picture indeed.



 

Xenostar on 02 March 2012
Play4Fun said:
Xenostar said:
I think it will be delayed untill it has a strong first party title to launch with, but as theyve never announced a launch date this would be hard to judge if it was internally delayed, if it misses a 2012 launch i think we can saftly say it was delayed but, i think they will do everything to get out just before xmas


Did I miss a leak somewhere that said Nintendo don't have first party games ready for Wii launch?

If not, where are you getting all this?..

Maybe they do but if so there keeping it very under wraps, weve only seen tech demos and 3rd party games not even running on there hardware at this point. I think they made the Wii U reveal to early, seems clear now that MS and prolly Sony wont be too far behind them in releasing there next gen as well now. 



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Linkasf on 02 March 2012

Let's wait till E3 then make our bets shall we? :)



theprof00 on 02 March 2012

Probably going to sell what ipads sell.



oniyide on 02 March 2012
spurgeonryan said:
oniyide said:
whats up with the game list??? Smash Bros wont be out anytime soon so is kind of irrelevant to the discussion, Zelda is the same thing, wont be out by launch. Tekken, Metro and Aliens should be in definite list, could have sworn those were confirmed. GTa5, RE, how are they probable?? I didnt get any info that they would be released on Wii U, not even a rumor. They should be maybe at best



Nothing is really know for sure is it? I was not going to even try to make sense of anything since most everything is rumors now. I am sure you are right about most of what you said. Anything I added was just to help people make their estimates. Kind of a fun way to see what people think will happen at this time.

Nothing crazy, just wondering what people thought with what we know at this time.


thats, true but there were some games on there that were blatatntly wrong, like Metro which was confirmed to be coming to Wii U a while ago.

GTA5, we dont even have a launch window for that game for the actual systems we KNOW its coming too (PS360) let alone Wii. For all we know it might not come out till next year and might miss the WIi U launch if it was coming



theprof00 on 02 March 2012
spurgeonryan said:
theprof00 said:
Probably going to sell what ipads sell.



I am happy then that you have so much faith in Nintendo! @oniyide Some of it could be fixed, but I doubt this thread will go much farther, so no point really. I basically copied an paste some games and picked out a lot that were wrong. I was using an old list.

Well, I'm getting one, so that should mean something, I think.

Between wii U, my driod bionic, and vita, I'll be carrying 3 screens around with me.

How odd and strange in this day and age that we carry so many screens around with us. 20 years ago, the idea seemed impossible.



oniyide on 02 March 2012
archbrix said:
kain_kusanagi said:
archbrix said:

Bottom line:  Worst case scenario for Nintendo, even if NeXtBox and PS4 were to arrive and eclipse WiiU, it will still outperform the Dreamcast by a very large margin and almost certainly still be a profitable endeavor for Nintendo in the end.  Therefore, comparing it to the Dreamcast in its purest sense is inaccurate.

You seem to think I'm claiming the Wii U will fail like the Dreamcast. That was never my point. Sega was on the edge before the Dreamcast launched and clearly Nintendo is not. My comparisons are not to show the inevitable death of the Wii U or Nintendo as a console maker. My point has only been that the success the Wii saw will almost certainly not follow the Wii U.In my opinion the Wii U will do fine, but see only the same level of success as the Gamecube.

OK, point taken @above.

We'll have to agree to disagree on some points, but I'll meet you half way on others:

I certainly don't expect the majority of PS360 owners to run out and buy WiiU just for 3rd party games that look a bit better and run smoother.  But consider that many HD twins owners, like many PS2 owners, are not brand loyal and go where the hype is.  These are the customers Nintendo needs to appeal to, not so much the hardcore Halo and God of War fans.  And while a person buying WiiU won't re-buy Batman AC that they already played a year ago, they might buy all future 3rd party games on their new console, similar to how new blu-ray player owners won't re-buy their entire movie library, but purchase all future content on blu-ray.

As far as the "soccer mom" point and the "new controller phenomenon" point, I believe they are related.  Grandparents who purchased the Wii aren't going to care anything about 1080p HD game graphics, but if Nintendo can create compelling games using the tablet that are family friendly experiences, they stand a much better chance at grabbing that market again.  This is where they really must think outside the box and come up with things similar to what they had playable at E3, but even better; picture the kids and mom playing a game with their Wii remotes while dad directly affects the tv display with the touch screen.  And they need to include this kind of software with the system.  Point being that they need games that do for the tablet controller what Wii Sports did for the Wii remote.  And remember, tablets and touch interfaces are "in" right now.  Sales (and possibly market reactions from Sony and Microsoft) will ultimately show if Nintendo was indeed successful.

The one point I am in major disagreeance with you on is that WiiU will only see the success of the Gamecube.  If you mean mainly only appealing to Nintendo fans, well, that remains to be seen.  But if you mean only 21m+ units sold lifetime, I can't imagine any of the big three selling that little ever again unless they royally screw up...


 I dont even think they will do that. IMHO, the PS360 crowd the ones who have heavily invested in the online component, will not want to buy games on another system. Especially 360 owners, who have invested time, energy and money into LIVE. I dont see them abandoning achievements/trophies, their friends list, whatever perks they had being LIVE or PSN+ members. Even if Ninty got people on the hype train I dont see them having people buy software over the other two. Unfortuanatly for NInty they have ALOT of catching up to do and im not just talking hardware